Cap’n Ken’s Homespun Wisdom

First things first - I give Jarrett Lee all the credit in the world for hanging tough and leading the team to a win over Auburn after putting LSU in what seemed like an inescapable hole to end the first half. It was a true trial by fire - he had to step up and step in for the quite woozy Andrew Hatch. And he did it.

I just finished watching the TV version of the game (instead of the upper-deck live version I got last night), and I believe now as I did then that Lee still has a long way to go. He was capable the whole second half, but very sharp on a few throws, very lucky on a few throws and very bad on a few throws. The 39-yard touchdown pass to Chris Mitchell, for example, was a true Chucker toss that would have been an easy pick if Auburn had a safety in the neighborhood. Worked out great, though.

I don’t hold on to criticism of Lee to put down on him; but rather to keep proper perspective - he did a great job in leading LSU to a win, but that doesn’t mean he’s Matt Flynn all of a sudden. The win, though, has to give him and the offense a lot of confidence and Les Miles the opportunity to call him the starter. Mr. Hatch, thank you for helping us out. Here’s your clipboard.

The best thing about last night’s game was LSU’s running game. In its first three games, Auburn gave up 84, 37 and 38 yards on the ground. Charles Scott himself laid down 132 of LSU’s 178 yards against the War Eagles. The LSU offensive line is dominant, and Scott is exploiting that really well. Scott still leads the SEC in rushing yards per game and is 7th in the nation. That was huge last night and opened the door for Lee to get his gains with softer coverage and less pressure.

Defensively, LSU’s line was just as dominant. Two of the biggest swings in the game came when LSU crippled itself with personal fouls only to reclaim those yards with sacks and tackles in the backfield. Those series were critical to the win.

The problem for LSU came in several horribly blown coverages that led to big Auburn gains. Time and again Auburn receivers were standing alone deep down the field, and Chris Todd took advantage. In fact, LSU’s interception of a 4th-down Auburn pass late in the third quarter would have been another gimme broken coverage completion had Todd released the pass off before Curtis Taylor got in his face. Todd’s delay to shed Taylor gave Chris Hawkins time to race over to the completely-uncovered Tommy Trott and make the pick.

Auburn was only in the game because of horrendous blown coverages, and LSU was fortunate to have not given up another on that 4th-down play. LSU needs a lot of work on its coverage schemes, and I have a lot of concern about Danny McCray’s ability to stay with wide receivers. It didn’t seem last night that he had the speed, which may be the lingering effect of his ankle injury. Fortunately it’ll be Mississippi State LSU gets to work these problems out against next week.

So coming out of the Auburn game, I feel very good about the running game, good about Lee being able to manage the game, OK about Lee being able to revive the passing game. Defensively, I love the line play, feel OK with the linebackers and have concerns about the secondary.

But we’re still in the driver’s seat in the SEC West, have a good chance to hone things against Mississippi State next week and an off week before Florida. I’ll take it.

Elsewhere in the SEC:

Yay for me with another week of 100% correct picks.

Obviously I didn’t watch the Georgia game, so I’m somewhat confused looking at the stats. Yes, the Dawgs were suitably impressive in dispatching Arizona State, but I’m not sure how 461 yards of offense, no interceptions and no fumbles lost equals just 27 points. I’m guessing the 12 penalties for 104 yards had a good bit to do with that, but the stats look like more of a blowout than 27 - 10. In any case, the Dawgs made the Devils totally one-dimensional (4 rushing yards allowed) and shut them down nicely.

The Florida / Tennessee game was over early, largely because Tennessee killed itself with mistakes and turnovers. The Gators ended with just 243 total yards (to the Vols’ 258 yards), with Tebow going under 100 passing yards. Yet another game Tennessee would like to forget, and I have to imagine Florida fans aren’t feeling great after this one, either.

Alabama rolled up Arkansas as expected. The Tide didn’t need to throw the ball considering they ran the ball almost unopposed (and scored twice on interception returns), but John Parker Wilson now has two games with fewer than 75 passing yards, which is notable as the Tide heads into a matchup with that team that gave up just 4 yards on the ground yesterday.

Vandy did me right and beat Ole Miss. This one was totally the Rebels’ fault, as they committed six turnovers while holding the Dores to 202 yards of offense and ran up 385 yards of their own. So Vandy didn’t deserve the win, but they got it.

I knew Georgia Tech would run all over the SEC’s worst run defense in Mississippi State, but 438 yards on the ground is still pretty shocking. And the Bulldogs managed 407 yards, but sealed the deal with four turnovers.

South Carolina beat Wofford, but just 23 - 13. A moral loss for the Cocks.

For the week: 7-0
For the season: 30-6

Loyal Wisdom readers will recall that I could not bring myself to pick LSU to win the SEC West in my season preview. At the time I said Auburn’s uncertainty at quarterback seemed preferable to LSU’s uncertainty at quarterback, and thus I gave the pre-season edge to Auburn in both Saturday’s game and the SEC West race.

So here’s how I see things two games in for LSU and three games in for Auburn.

Auburn’s offense is underwhelming. They stand 11th in the SEC in passing and 5th in rushing. Quarterback Chris Todd is unspectacular, but has also not thrown an interception since his very bad opening effort against ULM.

LSU’s rushing offense looks very good on paper, putting up 241 yards a game to lead the SEC. But App State and North Texas are hardly benchmark opponents. There is, however, a lot of talent on the offensive line and at halfback; that can’t be denied.

At quarterback, Jarrett Lee is simply not ready to lead the team. Like Andrew Hatch, he seems capable of running the swing-pass offense, but when it comes to being a dropback QB, he’s had his chances to show something, and he’s failed. On the flip side, Hatch is never going to be a passer, but LSU isn’t asking him to be. Despite the lack of a real QB, though, LSU’s passing offense is actually producing more than Auburn (7th in the SEC), though Todd’s 248 yards against Southern Mississippi is more than the LSU tandem produced in either of its games.

Offensively, the edge goes to LSU. But having lost a game to Gustav and the quarterback play being what it is, I think it’s clear LSU will lead with the run and keep ‘em honest with quick hits on the edges. I wouldn’t expect a big game from Hatch or Lee, nor would I expect LSU to try for that.

I do expect this to be largely a ground game. Barring a blown coverage or something, this one will be close and ultimately won on the ground.

LSU has an edge in rush defense, but again with questionable opponents in the rearview for both teams. It’s worth noting, though, that LSU held Appy and NTU well below their rush totals in other games. In the case of Appy, LSU held them to 396 fewer yards than their other opponent - Jacksonville. The same can be said, though, about Auburn and their opponents.

I think, though, that LSU has clear advantages in overall execution and program maturity. The War Eagles have fumbled the ball eight times in the past two games and lost six of them. They have yet to come together under their new spread offense, and overall they seem clumsy and confused. LSU, on the other hand, is comfortable with its offense and executes it well. In what’s expected to be a defensive-driven game, execution will be key.

Therefore, assuming LSU goes with a gameplan that doesn’t ask too much of the quarterback (perhaps stay with Hatch the whole game) and lets Auburn be the team making the mistakes, I like our chances.

LSU 9 - 6

Elsewhere in the SEC:

No. 3 Georgia at No. 24 Arizona State: I’m tempted to go with Arizona State here. ASU quarterback Rudy Carpenter averages 325 yards passing (9th in the nation) and Georgia’s secondary is generous, as the Dawgs hold the 86th-best pass defense in the country (236 yards a game). South Carolina put more passing yards on Georgia than they did on Vandy or N.C. State. Georgia Southern dropped more passing yards on Georgia than they put on Austin Peay.

If ASU can lay its passing power down to exploit Georgia’s pass defense, the potential exists for a high-scoring shootout or even an ASU romp.

But Georgia’s defensive problems tend to show up just in the second half. In the first half, Georgia has given up 113 yards and 4.7 points on average; that goes to 207 yards and 10.3 points in the second half. Dawg defenders point to the “young guys playing” effect in their patsy games, but Chris Smelley and Co. laid 185 4th-quarter yards on Georgia last Saturday, and Cock incompetence is all that kept the game from getting tied.

Whether it’s fatigue, poor reaction to halftime adjustments or whatever, it’s clear Georgia is best-served by not allowing Arizona State to be in the game late. And that should be doable.

The Dawg offense is nothing special; still 31st in total offense and 27th in scoring. But the Sun Devils sit at 39th in total defense and 43rd in scoring. I would expect Georgia to play ball-control and limit ASU’s touches.

So I think the potential exists for ASU (stung by the UNLV loss) to pull the upset here, but I have more faith in Georgia’s talent overall.

Dawgs 38 - 31

No. 4 Florida at No. 32 Tennessee: Dare I say it? There’s not a lot to like about Florida’s offense so far. They sit 8th in the SEC in rushing offense, and 6th in passing offense. Their top spot in SEC scoring offense is bolstered by three non-offensive touchdowns against Hawaii.

The Vols are sitting 8th in the SEC in both total and scoring defense. But the thing is, one bad game against UCLA (giving up 289 yards and 27 points) is enough to drop you below the middle of the pack when you’ve only played two games.

In Tebow v. Vols Defense, I look at things this way - UCLA exploited this defense and got blown out (and shut out) by BYU in their next game. So I think the indicators point to Florida playing above their stats and Tennessee living up to their poor reputation.

Offensively, the Vols are balanced (3rd in the SEC in both rushing and passing offense), but they put fewer points (35) on UAB than either Tulsa (45) or Florida Atlantic (49) managed. And, of course, they dropped 24 on UCLA before BYU put 59 on them. And the Gators’ defense (No. 1 in SEC total defense, No. 3 in scoring defense) should hold up to the Vol attack.

Florida 31 - 17

No. 13 Alabama at Arkansas: I’m ready to see Jackass’ team get torn apart. Casey Dick has strong passing numbers against bad teams, but the Hogs no longer have a ground game. Meanwhile, Fonzie has the defense clicking and the offense is coming along.

Alabama 41 - 17

No. 35 Vandy at Ole Miss: Hmm. A 3-0 Vandy going in to play Ole Miss. What sticks out to me here is the SEC’s second-best rushing offense (yes, Vandy) against the SEC’s worst rushing defense. I like how Ole Miss played against Wake Forest, but I’m gonna go Vandy here.

Dores 14 - 10

Mississippi State at No. 42 Georgia Tech: Kroom’s Kids are horrid on offense and average on defense. It might be a good thing for them that Tech will run a lot of clock.

Tech 13 - 6

Wofford at South Carolina: Let’s be done with the patsy games already.

Cocks 28 - 3