Cap’n Ken’s Homespun Wisdom

Inspiring words from our fearless leaders to kick off today’s press conference.

The man is a wordsmith.

No, I don’t have much enthusiasm for college football right now. But I shall at least make picks.

Tulane comes in to Baton Rouge to face the Tigers. What the hell am I to make of the Greenies? 36th nationally in total offense, but 95th in scoring offense. 33rd in total defense but 80th in scoring defense. Does not compute. Does Tulane drive to the opponents’ one-yard line and then just hand the ball to a linebacker and let him run it back for a touchdown? Bizarre.

But this is a team that lost by 31 to Army and 25 to Rice.

LSU 45 - 27

Elsewhere in the SEC:

No. 6 Georgia and No. 8 Florida. The Gators bring a better defense than LSU and a better offense as well. Georgia allowed 497 yards in the LSU game. And the Gators have a lot to prove after losing last year.

Florida 41 - 34

Auburn at Ole Miss. Both teams are 4-4 and 2-3 in conference play. But the feelings about those results could not be more different in Oxford and Opelika. Dare I say Auburn finally figures out a way to move the ball consistently? Had Ole Miss performed better against Arkansas, I would probably pick them here.

War Eagles 17 - 16

Tennessee at South Carolina. They say it’s the game to save Phil Fulmer’s job. There’s not much reason to see a chance for Tennessee here, but anything is possible.

Cocks 14 - 9

Kentucky at Mississippi State. A real stinker between teams that are both 1-3 in conference play. Too many important guys out for the ‘Cats, but Croom doesn’t bring much to the table. I’ll go with the ‘Cats defense here.

Kentucky 20 - 17

Tulsa at Arkansas. Tulsa throws up 624 yards and 56 points a game. Seriously. Yes, it’s against bad competition, but that’s what Arkansas is.

Golden Hurricane 42 - 20

Arkansas State at Alabama. Seems like years since Fonzie’s boys played a good team.

Tide 38 - 13

Early in the second quarter of LSU’s loss to Georgia on Saturday, the officials waived off a pass interference flag against the Dawgs because it was very incorrectly ruled that the pass was tipped by a Georgia player at the line. The bad call ended an LSU drive and forced the Tigers to settle for a 51-yard Colt David field goal instead of potentially tying the game at 14.

Not the hugest of deals in the grand scheme of things, as David’s long field goal gave the Tigers three points in place of the potential seven. But I wondered at the time why there was no review of the call, no challenge by Les Miles and not even a timeout called to buy some more time for the officials to look at the play.

It turns out that Miles believes such an event is unreviewable:

Notwithstanding his nonsensical “basically, they have to pick the thing up and wave it off, otherwise you’ve got no shot” line (do what?), is he right?

I’m not so sure.

In the 2008 NCAA Rules and Interpretations (PDF), they have a section of interpretations - for the first time, it seems - about what’s reviewable. And it includes this example:

Seems to me that’s exactly what happened on the LSU play. I’d like to think big-time football programs keep law students as interns and on standby in the booth for just such moments, but I guess that’s not the case. And on the replay, Miles was talking to an official after the play, so maybe he was incorrectly told the play is not reviewable. Or maybe I’m reading that interpretation wrong and it’s not reviewable. On its broadcast, CBS said it was a reviewable call.

If the play is reviewable, it would be a shame for nobody on the LSU staff to know that, and more of a shame if the official incorrectly told Miles it wasn’t reviewable. And even more of a shame for the replay official to not realize it and stop the action. If Miles was told that by the official and didn’t independently know the reality, I guess he would have been at a loss to do much about it.

But I wonder what the protocol is to tell an official you think he’s wrong about the crew’s ability to review a play. I think probably you call a timeout without lodging an official challenge, and then use that time to get the official to think more about things.

This time, the badly blown call and lack of review was fairly insignificant to the outcome of the game. But put this call in the position of something like LSU’s drive-killing bad call against Auburn in 2006, and it’s something everybody ought to know the reality of and get right.

I’m a little shocked at how accurate my prediction was for what would go down in the LSU / UGA game. It was a game of poor defense ultimately decided by the capabilities of the opposing quarterbacks.

Jarrett Lee didn’t come through. He needed a big game with few mistakes. He had his best game by production (287 yards, 3 TDs), but also his poorest overall effort (three interceptions, 50% completion rate) on Saturday. In the simplest of terms, he lost this game for LSU.

Forgetting Lee’s mistakes for a moment, LSU was in control of the game. The Tigers actually had an effective run game early, with Charles Scott laying down 41 yards on LSU’s second possession. Mixing good passes in, LSU marched 72 yards with ease to tie things up at 7 - 7.

Sure, LSU had no defense early, but they clamped down on the Dawgs in the second quarter and got the game to 21 - 17 with five minutes to go in the half and the ball in Lee’s hands. But instead of driving the Tigers down the field to either take the lead with a touchdown or make it a one-point game with a field goal, Lee chucked a horrible pass into the UGA secondary, got picked off and ended up handing the Dawgs another three points.

That 24 - 17 lead became 38 - 24 after a disastrous third quarter in which Lee didn’t complete a pass and got yanked for Andrew Hatch. Only a big Charles Scott run kept the game somewhat close. Things, of course, got really out of hand with Lee’s third interception and not even the generous Georgia defense could save LSU at that point.

Gary Crowton had a great gameplan for Georgia. The Tigers dropped more rushing yards and passing yards on the Dawgs than any opponent this year (497 total yards - also LSU’s biggest output of the season) and only Alabama has scored more on the Dawgs. The ugly reality was that LSU had to put up big numbers to compensate for the horrible Tiger defense, and they did. With a competent quarterback, this would have been about a 48 - 45 win.

But the bigger problem does still lie in the Tiger defense. As Leslie himself said:

“It certainly has to be reviewed as to the specifics of what happened and who and why,” Miles said, and on the word ‘why,’ he put strong emphasis. He then went back and forth on if what defensive co-coordinator Doug Mallory is calling is too complicated or not.

“And if the answer is not an easy one, then it’s maybe can’t,” he said. “Can’t we call something that the guys can figure out? But to me just off mind’s eye from the game, I don’t think the coverage was particularly difficult. It’s not like we were involved in a bunch of combo coverages and a bunch of different things. It was pretty simple.”

Your problem, Mr. Miles, is that you don’t have a defensive coordinator. Mallory has position responsibility for the defensive backs - how much in-game coaching are they getting when their coach is sitting up in the press box trying to plan for the next UGA possession? If he’s on the phone with them explaining what they need to be doing, who’s planning the defense - the linebackers’ coach who also carries the ridiculous “co-coordinator” title? His guys also need a lot of in-game attention, you know.

After this week’s game, the Tigers sit at No. 35 nationally in total defense, No. 68 in scoring defense, and No. 61 in pass defense. The strong spot (if you can call it that) is that LSU is No. 27 in rush defense. And, not coincidentally, they have a full-time coach working with the defensive line.

To recap recent history:

- 2000: 46th in total defense (Phil Elmassian)
- 2001: 75th in total defense (Gary Gibbs)
- 2002: 8th in total defense (Will Muschamp)
- 2003: 1st in total defense (Will Muschamp)
- 2004: 3rd in total defense (Will Muschamp)
- 2005: 3rd in total defense (Bo Pelini)
- 2006: 3rd in total defense (Bo Pelini)
- 2007: 3rd in total defense (Bo Pelini)
- 2008: 35th in total defense (Nobody)

It’s not surprising that “nobody” is a better choice for defensive coordinator than Gary Gibbs, but it’s easy to see the effect of the coordinator role on defensive performance. Muschamp built the defense; Pelini maintained it; Miles destroyed it.

Elsewhere in the SEC:

I was surprised at the level of defensive collapse by Auburn Thursday night. Lack of a consistent offense wasn’t a shocker, but looks like it’s time for Tuberville to fire somebody else.

And I guess Duke winning was an upset. I blew the pick, so it has to be. Otherwise, Florida laid serious wood to an incomplete Kentucky team, Alabama was sufficiently ready for Tennessee, Houston Nutt got his revenge and Croom beat a patsy.

For the week: 5 - 2
For the season: 51 - 14

Getting an early jump on the weekend action, what with Auburn playing Thursday night and me heading down to Baton Rouge Friday morning (Wisdom readers, let me know if you’ll be out at the game - capnken@betrsites.com). And let’s face it, there’s a lot to talk about.

Sure, the showdown with Fonzie next month now appears to be No. 13 LSU’s most important game, but No. 7 Georgia coming to town is a very big deal. The Dawgs have targeted LSU since somehow not being invited to play in the BCS Championship Game last year after finishing second in their division, the two teams haven’t met since the 2005 SEC Championship Game and the loser of this game is out of the BCSCG dance.

So, then, what to expect? I start any analysis of games by looking at past performance. My subjective views picking games are based in understanding recent history.

Here’s where the teams stand eight weeks in to the season:

Georgia - No. 26 nationally in total offense (46th in rushing, 22nd in passing), No. 35 in scoring offense. No. 12 in total defense (3rd in rushing, 66th in passing), No. 27 in scoring defense. Tossing out everybody’s patsy games, they’ve beaten 3-3 South Carolina, 1-3 Arizona State, 1-4 Tennessee and 3-2 Vanderbilt. They lost to 5-0 Alabama.

LSU - No. 40 nationally in total offense (36th in rushing, 51st in passing), No. 38 in scoring offense. No. 24 in total defense (16th in rushing, 51st in passing), No. 44 in scoring defense. Tossing out the patsy games, they’ve beaten 2-3 Auburn, 1-4 Mississippi State and 3-3 South Carolina. They lost to 5-1 Florida.

Both teams’ losses were high on the humiliation scale, so I’ll call 41 - 30 and 51 - 21 more or less a wash in terms of hammering statistical rankings. LSU comes out worse in that comparison, but they earned it.

There is, of course, one common foe - South Carolina. The Cocks put up 289 yards and 7 points on Georgia; 254 yards and 17 points on LSU. Georgia dropped 252 yards and 14 points on the Cocks; LSU put up 363 yards and 24 points.

Beyond the South Carolina comparison, LSU does not fare well in the statistical comparison. Neither team has a really significant win, and both lost to a quality opponent.

Georgia - notably - has been improving on defense, holding three of its last four teams under 250 total yards (Alabama put 324 on them) after giving up 599 yards to two patsies to open the season. LSU’s best defensive performances were against its two patsies to start the season, and the Tigers haven’t held anybody under 250 yards since.

On offense, Georgia has also rung up 400-plus yards in three of its last four games (Alabama, again, the exception) after a lackluster 252 yards put up on South Carolina. LSU cracked the 400-yard mark only once in its last four games - 427 put up on Mississippi State.

There’s a big imbalance there that concerns me. I expect Georgia to have the more powerful offense. But over the entire season and especially of late, the Dawgs outshine the Tigers on both sides of the ball. There’s not a lot of hope offered LSU in the numbers.

More subjectively, it’s important to look at the weaknesses of the two teams. For Georgia’s offense, it’s finishing drives. The Dawgs have scored 25 offensive touchdowns and made 15 field goals. And they have just two non-offensive scores (a punt return and an interception return). The high field goal to touchdown ratio coupled with the Dawgs’ penchant for penalties is why they are No. 26 in total offense but just No. 35 in scoring offense.

Much has been made of Georgia’s young and injured offensive line, but they still allow just 1.14 sacks per game.

For LSU, the offensive weakness is, of course, the quarterbacks. Jarrett Lee shows flashes of competence but remains young and shaky. And Andrew Hatch is Andrew Hatch. Our line protects well (one sack per game) and enables the run, but until our quarterbacks can really open up the offense and get the ball to LaFell, Byrd, etc. downfield, it’s too easy for good defenses to contain the LSU offense.

Defensively, both teams are weak in pass coverage, with Georgia performing worse than LSU there. But Georgia is in a better position to exploit poor coverage with Stafford at the helm.

Put these two teams on the field and have them run the gameplans we’ve been seeing from both, and Georgia wins on Saturday. That’s obvious in the numbers and past performance.

What LSU needs is a radical change in their approach to this game - and a lot of faith in Jarrett Lee.

Like with the brilliant plan put in place against Florida last year (keep the ball away from Tebow at all costs), Miles and Co. need a Georgia-specific plan this weekend. My suggestion is this:

- Georgia will move the ball and they will score points. Chances are Stafford will pick apart LSU’s poor coverage no matter what, so focus on heavy pressure, lots of blitzes and let what happens downfield happen. Don’t let receivers get behind the coverage and keep the Dawgs from getting the long touchdown - force them to execute a red-zone offense if Stafford beats the pressure. Chances are they’ll end up with a field goal or two instead of touchdowns.

- Jarrett Lee has to attack the Dawgs’ weakness, pass coverage. Hard. Trying to be conservative and take pressure off the young quarterback will result in Georgia bottling up the LSU offense. Open it up and air it out. The Tigers have to put faith in Lee to hit his receivers and not make stupid throws.

Yes, I’m calling for a shootout. It goes against LSU’s post-JaMarcus mentality, but it is what’s called for in this game. LSU’s pass coverage won’t stop Stafford, so try to stop him with pressure but expect a big day for the Georgia offense. And that will need to be countered by a big offensive show by LSU. Fortunately, Georgia’s weakness in coverage opens the door for that.

I think LSU’s defense will be up to the challenge, but it would be a lot to ask of Lee. Maybe he’ll have a career day, but I see him falling just short.

Georgia 44 - 42

Yes, I’m projecting not only an outcome, but also a strategy. If LSU tries to run its standard game, this one could look more like the Florida score.

Elsewhere in the SEC:

No. 2 Alabama at Tennessee: The hope for the Vols in this game lies with Bama’s last two games - a four-point win over Ole Miss and a three-point win over Kentucky. There’s nothing in the Vols’ performances this year that would suggest anything they bring to stop Alabama, but could two shaky games at home translate into an upset on the road for the Tide? I think it’s possible, but I’m not banking on it.

Bama 21 - 17

Kentucky at No. 10 Florida: The Wildcats lost their top running back this week to go along with losing their top receiver. Things unravel from here.

Gators 38 - 10

Auburn at West Virginia: West Virginia is the poster child for overrated teams in bad conferences, and I have a hard time picking them to win much of anything. And they’re in a rebuilding year. But Auburn gives me no reason to pick them to win against anybody these days, having lost to Vandy and Arkansas in back-to-back games. But maybe the week off will have helped Tubs pull together some kind of post-Franklin offense.

Auburn 23 - 17

Ole Miss at Arkansas: Houston Nutt coming home to play a bad Arkansas team and talking about how his Rebels could easily be 6-1. He has a lot to prove, and I look for him to do just that.

Ole Miss 31 - 20

Duke at Vanderbilt: The ‘Dores achieve their dream of bowl eligibility against Duke.

Vandy 21 - 20

MTSU at Mississippi State: The Bulldogs lost to a poor WAC team to open the season, but I think they have themselves together enough to not lose to a poor Sun Belt team now.

Mississippi State 28 - 17

It does not bode well. Not well at all. LSU should not have to “pull one out” against the likes of South Carolina. It should not take halftime adjustments to finally shut down a one-dimensional offense ranked No. 104 in rushing being led by a freshman starting his first game.

LSU’s offense is unspectacular, but that’s expected and should be OK. But it’s not. Last night the Tiger offense scored one more touchdown than the No. 7 offense in the SEC. Last week it scored four fewer than the No. 2 offense in the SEC. And this week the No. 1 offense comes to Baton Rouge.

We will not win a shootout against Georgia. We won’t be able to adjust ourselves out of a poor plan and poor play early (see Florida). Barring some bit of sorcery conjured up by one or both of the guys pretending to be our defensive coordinator, next week’s game could be very ugly.

Elsewhere in the SEC:

Georgia’s lackluster win over Vanderbilt does offer a measure of hope for LSU. I’m sure UGA fans will say “the Vandy game is always tough”, just like “the South Carolina game is always tough”, but the Dawgs still manage to make enough mistakes week in and week out to keep their opponents within striking distance. This was, though, a good week for Georgia to finally start finishing drives and not settling for field goals.

Alabama was lucky to come away with a win over Ole Miss. The Rebels outgained the Tide and held Fonzie’s boys scoreless in the second half after giving up 24 in the first. Losing Mt. Cody was a big blow to the Bama defense, but there’s something to this problem of finishing games. Cumulative scores by quarter for Bama and its opponents: First - 95-3, Second - 76-20, Third - 32-21, Fourth 23-47. I imagine it has a lot to do with the youth of the team and problems executing adjustments. Saban can gameplan them up real well during the week, but it’s harder to get them to adjust well during the game. Fortunately for Alabama, they execute real well to start games.

Tennessee can feel good about itself for rolling Mississippi State 34 - 3 thanks to two interceptions returned for touchdowns, but this was a 6 - 3 game at heart. Lots of problems remain for Fulmer. And I blew the pick.

Kentucky had to come from behind to beat Arkansas. Sad.

For the week: 4 - 1
For the season: 46 - 12