Cap’n Ken’s Homespun Wisdom

What’s the difference between the 2008 LSU Tigers and the 2009 LSU Tigers? Georgia sucks this year.

Well, it’s not quite that simple, but after suffering through a very poor LSU patsy win last Saturday, this season is feeling a lot like 2008 – except that Georgia sucks. Last year, Georgia didn’t suck and LSU stood at 7-3 going into the final stretch against Ole Miss and Arkansas. And we suffered through a very poor LSU patsy win against Troy right before that.

But Georgia sucks, so LSU is 8-2 right now, not 7-3.

What’s really interesting is that ten games in, LSU isn’t much different defensively this year, giving up 311.8 yards per game compared to 311.1 yards per game ten games in to 2008. We’re 22 yards per game worse against the rush but 22 yards per game better against the pass. Minus the gifts of Jarrett Lee, however, LSU’s scoring defense is much improved at 13.7 points per game (compared to the pick six-aided 24.9 points per game of 2008).

Remember how the 2008 LSU defense was so horrible that Les Miles’ ridiculous “co-coordinator” experiment was ended and the high-profile John Chavis was brought in as the defensive savior? Kind of interesting that LSU’s defense hasn’t actually improved under Chavis this year but you don’t hear much grumbling.

I guess it’s hard to focus on the defense when your offense is this bad.

Last year at this time, LSU was averaging 394.2 yards per game. We are now averaging 310 per game, with rush yards down 44 and pass yards down 40 per game. Scoring has dropped off from 32.1 to 25 per game. And we’ve gone from allowing 1.2 sacks per game to allowing 2.7 sacks per game. And this, of course, with a “more experienced” quarterback, most of the skill guys back and the best offensive line Les Miles says he’s ever had.

Clearly there’s something wrong there. Some say Gary Crowton is over-complicating things; others say Jordan Jefferson just isn’t up to the task of leading an SEC offense. And others say the offensive line just lost too much this year (a theory I tend to agree with). But whatever the cause, it’s a glaring problem.

Which brings us to the No. 8 Tigers’ matchup with Ole Miss on Saturday. Last year, this game marked the beginning of the end for LSU’s season. The Tigers were still clinging to a No. 18 ranking with the prospect of finishing the season 9-3. It didn’t work out that way, of course.

Last year LSU managed a season-low 215 total yards against the Rebels and gave up 408 yards, which was behind only the totals given up to Florida (475) and Georgia (443) that season. And we lost, 31-13.

As I mentioned, LSU’s defense this year is about the same as it was last year; our offense is much worse. Ole Miss’ offense is about the same as last year (405 yards per game compared to 407 last year) as is their defense (313 yards allowed compared to 307 last year). The Rebels are coming off a 41-17 thrashing of a Tennessee defense that’s ranked right behind LSU, and they held the Vols to 112 fewer yards than their average production.

All of this, quite frankly, does not bode well. Even if LSU can contain McCluster and the Ole Miss offense, the Tigers will be throwing a gimpy offense (literally, with Jefferson, Dickson and Hebert semi-healthy at best and Scott out for the season) at a good Rebels defense that also happens to produce a lot of sacks (LSU gives up a lot of sacks even with a healthy quarterback and offensive line).

Ole Miss and LSU both have motivation in this game – the Tigers can finish in the top 10 with two wins to close out the year; the Rebels can reach nine wins by closing out strong. But I don’t see any advantage for LSU, especially on the road.

Rebels 31 – 9

Elsewhere in the SEC:

Kentucky at Georgia. A battle of two 6-4 teams (no, really), but these teams really aren’t comparable. Kentucky is a bad game by Auburn away from having one SEC win (over Vandy), and they’ve been generally pretty unimpressive. And while I say Georgia sucks, they are a much better team than Kentucky. Georgia needs this one bad. A win puts the Dawgs at 7-4 going in to a tough rivalry game against Georgia Tech; a loss leaves them scrambling for bowl eligibility – a term made for teams like Kentucky. I don’t see a ‘Cats win in Athens here.

Georgia 38 – 20

Mississippi State at Arkansas. The Bulldogs are staring at another 4-8 season if they don’t get past the Hogs. Arkansas still has a shot at 8-4. I don’t think MSU has the defense to slow down Mallett & Co. or the offense to fully exploit a weak Hogs defense.

Arkansas 45 – 31

Vanderbilt at Tennessee. Remember early in the season when LSU’s 23-9 win over Vandy was considered to be a great performance? Oh, right, the ‘Dores are 2-9 now and 0-7 in the conference. You have to figure Lane Kiffin and his daddy aren’t real happy with last week’s bad loss at Ole Miss. And Tennessee needs this one (and Kentucky next week) to reach 7-5 and claim bowl eligibility.

Vols 52 – 17

Patsies at No. 1 Florida and No. 2 Alabama.

Florida and Alabama

After its week in the spotlight, LSU takes a backseat to the real action in the SEC this week. There’s really not much that needs to be said about playing La. Tech, except that answers to the health of Jordan Jefferson and Charles Scott’s backups will be answered.

LSU 45 – 13

Elsewhere in the SEC:

No. 1 Florida at South Carolina. A few weeks ago this game looked like a potential stumbling block for Florida. The Cocks were 5-1 and showing signs of life. Then SC failed badly at Alabama, barely got past Vandy and got blown out in back-to-back games at Tennessee and Arkansas. Yes, anything can happen on the road in the SEC, but there’s no logical analysis that can be put here to predict a South Carolina win.

Gators 27 – 10

No. 2 Alabama at Mississippi State. As with Florida / USC, this game doesn’t favor a Bama loss in any way. The shining point for the Bulldogs is their rush offense, so good luck with that against Alabama. If the Tide falters, it would likely come from pressing the passing game to break out of that particular funk. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see Fonzie order a more aggressive attack early in this one, like he did last week against LSU. There would have to be a pretty spectacular failure by Bama to keep MSU in this one.

Bama 28 – 14

Tennessee at Ole Miss. A pretty big game for both the Vols and the Rebels. The winner of this one has a great shot at an 8-win season, which obviously would be a bigger deal to the rebuilding Vols than the under-achieving Rebels. Despite the arrest this week of Tennessee’s freshmen class, I think the Vols have more momentum, more to play for and maybe even more talent.

Tennessee 34 – 27

Auburn at Georgia. I don’t think the Dawgs have the offense to fully exploit the weak Auburn defense, and the War Eagles have the firepower to take advantage of a UGA defense that’s giving up an average of 30 points per game in SEC competition.

Auburn 41 – 31

Kentucky at Vanderbilt. Remember early in the season when LSU’s 23-9 win over Vandy was considered to be a great performance? Oh, right, the ‘Dores are 2-8 now and 0-6 in the conference. The numbers are fun on this one. Vandy is 41st nationally in rush offense, 111 in pass offense and 101 in rush defense. Kentucky is 22 in rush offense, 108 in pass offense and 102 in rush defense. Neither team may pass in this one.

Kentucky 16 – 9

Troy at Arkansas. Tempted to go with the big upset here, as Troy averages 315 yards of pass offense (against weak competition) and Arkansas is No. 116 in pass defense. But Troy is No. 106 in pass defense going against the No. 12 pass offense in the nation. Should Ryan Mallett have an epic meltdown, Troy could stay in this one. But it would be a little nuts to predict that.

Arkansas 56 – 48

Also, I failed to round up the rest of the SEC action last week. I was 7-1 for the week (missed Ark. / SC). For the season I’m now 65-9.

There will, no doubt, be a lot of griping by LSU fans about the blown call on Patrick Peterson’s 4th-quarter interception. And it’s pretty clear that was a bad call. But if that call would have marked the last best chance LSU had to win this game (and it would have), it’s important to focus on the larger context of how this game unfolded.

Working backwards … LSU killed itself by running in to the Alabama punter earlier in that drive … the inability to stop Mark Ingram (no easy task) put LSU in a bind … the cramps of Patrick Peterson led directly to Julio Jones’ touchdown … and the injury to Jordan Jefferson left LSU in the incapable hands of Mr. Jarrett Lee.

I felt good about the Tigers’ 7-3 halftime lead. It seemed at the time that LSU had enough contain on the Bama offense to make a game out of it. To be sure, the Tide was under-achieving. Alabama had just one drive of under 30 yards in the first half, but with poor field position on two drives, bad game management on another and an interception on the final drive of the half, they had managed just three points from 208 yards of offense.

LSU, on the other hand, had one very good 91-yard TD drive, a 33-yard drive that resulted in a punt and drives totaling 10, -5, 6 and 5 yards in the half. Seven points from 157 yards of offense.

Advantage LSU.

And then there was the second half. Bama went to Ingram and rang up 21 points on 250 yards of offense. The big hit, of course, was Julio Jones’ 73-yard TD catch/run when Patrick Peterson sat on the bench with cramps. In the second half, the Tide mounted drives of 81, 66, 73 and 32 yards (plus -1 on the safety possession).

LSU, meanwhile, managed just 123 yards of offense as Jefferson and Scott went down to injuries and put up just 6 more points in addition to the safety after halftime. Tiger drives totaled 28, 59, 9, -9 and 8 yards in the second half.

The Tigers got breaks in the first half to stay ahead of Bama and needed breaks in the second to stay with them. LSU got a huge break by downing a punt inside the Bama 1-yard line, but wasn’t able to capitalize enough on the safety and ensuing possession (which resulted in their final TD and 15-10 lead) to stay in front of the Tide.

More than anything, LSU needed a fourth-quarter counter to Mark Ingram. With Jarrett Lee at the helm and Charles Scott out of the game, it simply wasn’t there. Might not have been without the injuries either, but once Ingram got rolling things became really tough for LSU.

A 66-yard field-goal drive for Bama, a three-and-out for LSU, the Jones TD for Bama and a three-and-out for LSU. If not for running into the kicker, LSU would have gotten the ball back down six with 7:30 left to play. It’s hard to think Lee would have done much at that point, but it was LSU’s best shot to pull this one out.

The bad call on the Peterson interception one minute later cost LSU its final opportunity. But make no mistake – this game was won by Bama and Mark Ingram and lost by LSU, its lack of offense and injuries.