Cap’n Ken’s Homespun Wisdom

Getting an early jump on the weekend action, what with Auburn playing Thursday night and me heading down to Baton Rouge Friday morning (Wisdom readers, let me know if you’ll be out at the game - capnken@betrsites.com). And let’s face it, there’s a lot to talk about.

Sure, the showdown with Fonzie next month now appears to be No. 13 LSU’s most important game, but No. 7 Georgia coming to town is a very big deal. The Dawgs have targeted LSU since somehow not being invited to play in the BCS Championship Game last year after finishing second in their division, the two teams haven’t met since the 2005 SEC Championship Game and the loser of this game is out of the BCSCG dance.

So, then, what to expect? I start any analysis of games by looking at past performance. My subjective views picking games are based in understanding recent history.

Here’s where the teams stand eight weeks in to the season:

Georgia - No. 26 nationally in total offense (46th in rushing, 22nd in passing), No. 35 in scoring offense. No. 12 in total defense (3rd in rushing, 66th in passing), No. 27 in scoring defense. Tossing out everybody’s patsy games, they’ve beaten 3-3 South Carolina, 1-3 Arizona State, 1-4 Tennessee and 3-2 Vanderbilt. They lost to 5-0 Alabama.

LSU - No. 40 nationally in total offense (36th in rushing, 51st in passing), No. 38 in scoring offense. No. 24 in total defense (16th in rushing, 51st in passing), No. 44 in scoring defense. Tossing out the patsy games, they’ve beaten 2-3 Auburn, 1-4 Mississippi State and 3-3 South Carolina. They lost to 5-1 Florida.

Both teams’ losses were high on the humiliation scale, so I’ll call 41 - 30 and 51 - 21 more or less a wash in terms of hammering statistical rankings. LSU comes out worse in that comparison, but they earned it.

There is, of course, one common foe - South Carolina. The Cocks put up 289 yards and 7 points on Georgia; 254 yards and 17 points on LSU. Georgia dropped 252 yards and 14 points on the Cocks; LSU put up 363 yards and 24 points.

Beyond the South Carolina comparison, LSU does not fare well in the statistical comparison. Neither team has a really significant win, and both lost to a quality opponent.

Georgia - notably - has been improving on defense, holding three of its last four teams under 250 total yards (Alabama put 324 on them) after giving up 599 yards to two patsies to open the season. LSU’s best defensive performances were against its two patsies to start the season, and the Tigers haven’t held anybody under 250 yards since.

On offense, Georgia has also rung up 400-plus yards in three of its last four games (Alabama, again, the exception) after a lackluster 252 yards put up on South Carolina. LSU cracked the 400-yard mark only once in its last four games - 427 put up on Mississippi State.

There’s a big imbalance there that concerns me. I expect Georgia to have the more powerful offense. But over the entire season and especially of late, the Dawgs outshine the Tigers on both sides of the ball. There’s not a lot of hope offered LSU in the numbers.

More subjectively, it’s important to look at the weaknesses of the two teams. For Georgia’s offense, it’s finishing drives. The Dawgs have scored 25 offensive touchdowns and made 15 field goals. And they have just two non-offensive scores (a punt return and an interception return). The high field goal to touchdown ratio coupled with the Dawgs’ penchant for penalties is why they are No. 26 in total offense but just No. 35 in scoring offense.

Much has been made of Georgia’s young and injured offensive line, but they still allow just 1.14 sacks per game.

For LSU, the offensive weakness is, of course, the quarterbacks. Jarrett Lee shows flashes of competence but remains young and shaky. And Andrew Hatch is Andrew Hatch. Our line protects well (one sack per game) and enables the run, but until our quarterbacks can really open up the offense and get the ball to LaFell, Byrd, etc. downfield, it’s too easy for good defenses to contain the LSU offense.

Defensively, both teams are weak in pass coverage, with Georgia performing worse than LSU there. But Georgia is in a better position to exploit poor coverage with Stafford at the helm.

Put these two teams on the field and have them run the gameplans we’ve been seeing from both, and Georgia wins on Saturday. That’s obvious in the numbers and past performance.

What LSU needs is a radical change in their approach to this game - and a lot of faith in Jarrett Lee.

Like with the brilliant plan put in place against Florida last year (keep the ball away from Tebow at all costs), Miles and Co. need a Georgia-specific plan this weekend. My suggestion is this:

- Georgia will move the ball and they will score points. Chances are Stafford will pick apart LSU’s poor coverage no matter what, so focus on heavy pressure, lots of blitzes and let what happens downfield happen. Don’t let receivers get behind the coverage and keep the Dawgs from getting the long touchdown - force them to execute a red-zone offense if Stafford beats the pressure. Chances are they’ll end up with a field goal or two instead of touchdowns.

- Jarrett Lee has to attack the Dawgs’ weakness, pass coverage. Hard. Trying to be conservative and take pressure off the young quarterback will result in Georgia bottling up the LSU offense. Open it up and air it out. The Tigers have to put faith in Lee to hit his receivers and not make stupid throws.

Yes, I’m calling for a shootout. It goes against LSU’s post-JaMarcus mentality, but it is what’s called for in this game. LSU’s pass coverage won’t stop Stafford, so try to stop him with pressure but expect a big day for the Georgia offense. And that will need to be countered by a big offensive show by LSU. Fortunately, Georgia’s weakness in coverage opens the door for that.

I think LSU’s defense will be up to the challenge, but it would be a lot to ask of Lee. Maybe he’ll have a career day, but I see him falling just short.

Georgia 44 - 42

Yes, I’m projecting not only an outcome, but also a strategy. If LSU tries to run its standard game, this one could look more like the Florida score.

Elsewhere in the SEC:

No. 2 Alabama at Tennessee: The hope for the Vols in this game lies with Bama’s last two games - a four-point win over Ole Miss and a three-point win over Kentucky. There’s nothing in the Vols’ performances this year that would suggest anything they bring to stop Alabama, but could two shaky games at home translate into an upset on the road for the Tide? I think it’s possible, but I’m not banking on it.

Bama 21 - 17

Kentucky at No. 10 Florida: The Wildcats lost their top running back this week to go along with losing their top receiver. Things unravel from here.

Gators 38 - 10

Auburn at West Virginia: West Virginia is the poster child for overrated teams in bad conferences, and I have a hard time picking them to win much of anything. And they’re in a rebuilding year. But Auburn gives me no reason to pick them to win against anybody these days, having lost to Vandy and Arkansas in back-to-back games. But maybe the week off will have helped Tubs pull together some kind of post-Franklin offense.

Auburn 23 - 17

Ole Miss at Arkansas: Houston Nutt coming home to play a bad Arkansas team and talking about how his Rebels could easily be 6-1. He has a lot to prove, and I look for him to do just that.

Ole Miss 31 - 20

Duke at Vanderbilt: The ‘Dores achieve their dream of bowl eligibility against Duke.

Vandy 21 - 20

MTSU at Mississippi State: The Bulldogs lost to a poor WAC team to open the season, but I think they have themselves together enough to not lose to a poor Sun Belt team now.

Mississippi State 28 - 17

It does not bode well. Not well at all. LSU should not have to “pull one out” against the likes of South Carolina. It should not take halftime adjustments to finally shut down a one-dimensional offense ranked No. 104 in rushing being led by a freshman starting his first game.

LSU’s offense is unspectacular, but that’s expected and should be OK. But it’s not. Last night the Tiger offense scored one more touchdown than the No. 7 offense in the SEC. Last week it scored four fewer than the No. 2 offense in the SEC. And this week the No. 1 offense comes to Baton Rouge.

We will not win a shootout against Georgia. We won’t be able to adjust ourselves out of a poor plan and poor play early (see Florida). Barring some bit of sorcery conjured up by one or both of the guys pretending to be our defensive coordinator, next week’s game could be very ugly.

Elsewhere in the SEC:

Georgia’s lackluster win over Vanderbilt does offer a measure of hope for LSU. I’m sure UGA fans will say “the Vandy game is always tough”, just like “the South Carolina game is always tough”, but the Dawgs still manage to make enough mistakes week in and week out to keep their opponents within striking distance. This was, though, a good week for Georgia to finally start finishing drives and not settling for field goals.

Alabama was lucky to come away with a win over Ole Miss. The Rebels outgained the Tide and held Fonzie’s boys scoreless in the second half after giving up 24 in the first. Losing Mt. Cody was a big blow to the Bama defense, but there’s something to this problem of finishing games. Cumulative scores by quarter for Bama and its opponents: First - 95-3, Second - 76-20, Third - 32-21, Fourth 23-47. I imagine it has a lot to do with the youth of the team and problems executing adjustments. Saban can gameplan them up real well during the week, but it’s harder to get them to adjust well during the game. Fortunately for Alabama, they execute real well to start games.

Tennessee can feel good about itself for rolling Mississippi State 34 - 3 thanks to two interceptions returned for touchdowns, but this was a 6 - 3 game at heart. Lots of problems remain for Fulmer. And I blew the pick.

Kentucky had to come from behind to beat Arkansas. Sad.

For the week: 4 - 1
For the season: 46 - 12

Critics of two-quarterback systems like to say that when you have two quarterbacks, you really have no quarterback. And they’re right. Doesn’t the same, though, hold true on the sidelines?

LSU has two defensive coordinators, and therefore has no defensive coordinator. And it’s really starting to show.

The Tigers, of course, make their living on defense. In its 2003 championship season, the Tigers finished No. 1 in total defense; No. 1 in scoring defense. In last year’s championship season, the Tigers finished No. 3 in total defense and No. 17 in scoring defense (reflecting 38 points given in six overtime periods).

Going in to the South Carolina game, the Tigers were ranked No. 32 in total defense; No. 52 in scoring defense. And that’s not a statistical fluke of the humiliation at Florida. LSU gave up 320 yards and 21 points to an Auburn team that could manage just 208 yards and 13 points against Vanderbilt and 284 yards and 24 points to Mississippi State, which managed just 116 yards and 2 points against Auburn.

And tonight against South Carolina, the Tigers gave up 226 yards and 17 points in the first half before turning up the quarterback pressure and shutting down the Cocks in the second half.

The LSU defense is just not very good. It’s certainly not the kind of defense we’re used to.

Yes, the Tigers returned just five starters this year. Losing Glenn Dorsey, Ali Highsmith, Jonathan Zenon, Craig Steltz and Chevis Jackson surely had an impact. But the two-deep depth chart features seven seniors, eight juniors, three sophomores, three redshirt freshmen and just one true freshman. That’s 15 upperclassmen and seven underclassmen - the same mix LSU won a national title with in ‘03. This is not a young, green team.

No, the glaring difference in on the sidelines. After losing Bo Pelini to Nebraska, Les Miles replaced his defensive coordinator with - nobody. Pelini did not have position-coaching responsibilities; he was focused solely on running the defense. Same with Will Muschamp when he was at LSU.

But now LSU has this ridiculous “Co-Defensive Coordinator” setup with defensive backs coach Doug Mallory and linebackers coach Bradley Dale Peveto also “sharing” the responsibility of running the defense. To fill Pelini’s parking space at the Football Operations Center, Miles hired Joe Robinson to take over special-teams duty from Peveto and help out with the defensive line (the one area of the defense that actually still has a dedicated coach).

And it’s not like Miles is a defensive coach like Nick Saban, whose defensive philosophy drives the strategy. Saban now has a Defensive Head Coach as well as Defensive Coordinator under him at Alabama, and those guys have position responsibilities as well. But there’s no doubt who’s in charge of the Bama defense.

Let’s see - our defense is in general disarray with the most troubling spots being pass coverage by the linebackers and defensive backs. Gee, that wouldn’t have anything to do with LSU not having one guy dedicated solely to any of those responsibilities, would it?

That, friends, is how you dismantle a defense.

With the possible exception of Will Muschamp, there’s not a defensive coach in America who wouldn’t have packed his shit faster than Tony Franklin and headed straight to Baton Rouge had Leslie dialed him up. Fonzie is at Alabama; Pelini at Nebraska and Muschamp at Texas as the most sought-after head-coaching candidate right now because of what they did on defense at LSU. It’s a fantastic stepping-stone for any defensive-minded coach.

And Miles hired - nobody. He didn’t even elevate Mallory or Peveto to the position. He eliminated it. Now LSU is left to overcome a problem when it should be strengthening a fantastic defense. That’s inexcusable.

It’s a given that No. 13.0 LSU really needs to show its worth this weekend in Columbia against the Cocks. The humiliation at the hands of Florida last week left the college football world - and any Tiger fan with a brain - wondering what this team is all about.

And the No. 35.5 Cocks are on a four-game winning streak and sit on the brink of having a pretty good year after a 1-2 start. Their only quality victories, though, have come over Ole Miss and Kentucky in a pair of seven-point wins.

The Cocks are No. 1 in the SEC and No. 2 in the country in pass defense, allowing just 132 yards per game. And 8th-place in SEC rush defense is still No. 30 in the country, so Carolina is No. 3 in the country in total defense.

The Tigers supposedly have a good ground game, and turning Jarrett Lee loose to throw into Cock coverage seems rather ill-advised. But Carolina has no run game (last in the SEC, No. 104 in the country) and leans heavily on the pass. The key for the Tigers here is not giving up a lot of pass yardage and points so we don’t have to turn to our own pass game to keep up.

Unfortunately, LSU now sits at No. 9 in SEC pass defense and total defense, and No. 10 in scoring defense. That could be a problem. LSU does not want to get in to a touchdown contest with the Cocks.

This one concerns me. I’m not going to pick the Cocks, but my confidence is not high.

LSU 34 - 31

Elsewhere in the SEC:

No. 22.5 Vanderbilt at No. 9 Georgia: Vandy just doesn’t stack up well against the Dawgs - or against anybody, really. Except Auburn. We hope you enjoyed your time in the Top 25; good luck on that bowl eligibility thing.

Dawgs 45 - 17

Ole Miss at No. 2 Alabama: Imagine the Tide football complex … luxurious, high-tech and filled with pictures of the Bear and crimson-colored shag carpet. You have to think there are a lot of televisions in the complex, and you can bet your life that Fonzie has been playing Ole Miss’ win over then-No. 4 Florida non stop this week. The Kentucky scare was a great motivational tool for Saban, and combined with being able to show his kids what happened to Florida, you have to figure there will be a lot of focus and no let-down this week.

Bama 31 - 20

Arkansas at Kentucky: Could there be a less-compelling SEC game this season?

Kentucky 24 - 17

Mississippi State at Tennessee: The only game that could be less compelling than Arkansas / Kentucky. The only appeal here is the potential to watch Phil Fulmer squirm on the sideline and possibly be escorted out of the stadium and permanently off campus by his athletic director sometime in the second half.

Mississippi State 8 - 5 (3 OT)

From The Advocate (the Baton Rouge daily, not the national gay newspaper) this morning:

Miles said Wednesday that he “leaning toward” seeking a redshirt for freshman quarterback Jordan Jefferson, who has taken one snap this season and injured his right (throwing) shoulder on the play vs. Mississippi State. Miles said the final call will decide on how things play out the next few weeks with Lee and sophomore backup Andrew Hatch

From what I understand (correct me if I’m wrong), the “redshirt” opportunity is gone as soon as a player takes that first snap. What Leslie would be doing - and why this “shoulder injury” is key - is requesting a “medical hardship” for Jefferson to give him an extra year of eligibility. That hardship must be approved by the SEC.

Apparently that’s a fairly standard gimmick for getting a “redshirt” for a young guy who has just played a little, but it’s probably not the best strategy for Miles to tell the media that the “final call” depends on how well Hatch and Lee play in the coming games. Seems that if you’re seeking the medical hardship, the “final call” would be related to the player’s injury.

If the SEC actually considers the facts of a “medical hardship”, Leslie’s making it really easy for them to see this ruse.

Is there anything good to say about LSU’s performance in Gainesville last night? It was good to see some fight left in the Tigers down 20-0 with under a minute to go in the first half. Punching in touchdowns to end the first half and open the second half preserved a few ounces of self-respect otherwise squandered by LSU completely rolling over to Tebow & Co.

Mistakes by our quarterbacks, I get. Poor pass coverage, I get. The ball bouncing Florida’s way, sure, it happens. LSU faced some real challenges going in to the game in an extremely unforgiving environment, but the inability to run the ball or stop the run - I didn’t see that coming. Without those strengths on display, LSU didn’t stand a chance.

Give Florida credit for a great start. The Gators got a good break on the tipped-pass touchdown to open the game, and shut down LSU’s offense early. Four yards of offense and an interception - that was LSU’s first quarter. The lucky tip and two good Florida drives, and LSU was down 17-0.

But then LSU had a drive. Starting on its nine, LSU drove 42 yards on seven straight rushing plays to midfield. And then Charles Scott fumbled a bad handoff. Florida turned that into a field goal to go up 20. That LSU closed the gap to 14-20 with touchdown drives straddling halftime was impressive. The Gators, though, wouldn’t be stopped.

The next three series went Florida TD, LSU three-and-out, Florida TD. And it was over.

What was surprising was how Florida ran all over LSU. The Gators piled up 265 rushing yards, 103 of those in the fourth quarter after the game had been decided. After relying on Tebow’s arm early, the Gators turned to the run in the middle of the second quarter and really broke LSU’s back on the ground. The score that put the game out of reach was a 42-yard run, not a Tebow toss.

It was a lot to ask of the Tigers to stay in the game after turning the ball over twice, doing not much on offense and suffering the bad luck of the bounce to go down 20-0 in The Swamp. It was not a good night for LSU at all, but I’ll take the little ray of sunshine that was a 14-point comeback.

It’s not much, but I’ll take it.

Elsewhere in the SEC:

Georgia can’t be real happy with a 26 - 14 win over Tennessee that was within a touchdown going in to the fourth quarter. Holding the Vols to 1 yard rushing = very good. Giving them more points than they got on Northern Illinois = not so good. But the big concern for UGA has to be their dependence on the pass. That shows in scoring four field goals and two touchdowns. And that’s 16 points left on the field. You can get away with that against Tennessee, not so much against Florida.

And I guess CBS also has a hard crush on Knowshon, as they gave him the Player of The Game award for 101 yards on 27 carries (3.7 average) and no touchdowns. I suppose Mohamed Massaquoi’s 5 catches for 103 yards (20.3 average) and a touchdown don’t cut it against the Greatest Back Since Hershel Walker.

At least I got the pick right.

I said in my picks that if Mississippi State was 2-3 instead of 1-4 I would have picked them over Vandy. The ‘Dores are nothing special and I shouldn’t have given them a nod here.

God help Auburn after the loss to Arkansas. The program is really teetering on the brink of disaster now. Only managing 193 yards on offense against Arkansas (only Western Illinois had failed to put 300 yards on the Hogs) was bad enough, but couple that with giving the Hogs 416 yards of offense and things are not good with the War Eagles. I didn’t expect much from Auburn, but I expected them to at least beat Arkansas.

South Carolina pulled out the win at Kentucky, as expected. And lookee there, the Cocks are 5-2 after winning four straight. Bears a little more study now for the LSU game.

For the week: 2 - 3
For the season: 42 - 11