Cap’n Ken’s Homespun Wisdom

Getting an early jump on the weekend action, what with Auburn playing Thursday night and me heading down to Baton Rouge Friday morning (Wisdom readers, let me know if you’ll be out at the game - capnken@betrsites.com). And let’s face it, there’s a lot to talk about.

Sure, the showdown with Fonzie next month now appears to be No. 13 LSU’s most important game, but No. 7 Georgia coming to town is a very big deal. The Dawgs have targeted LSU since somehow not being invited to play in the BCS Championship Game last year after finishing second in their division, the two teams haven’t met since the 2005 SEC Championship Game and the loser of this game is out of the BCSCG dance.

So, then, what to expect? I start any analysis of games by looking at past performance. My subjective views picking games are based in understanding recent history.

Here’s where the teams stand eight weeks in to the season:

Georgia - No. 26 nationally in total offense (46th in rushing, 22nd in passing), No. 35 in scoring offense. No. 12 in total defense (3rd in rushing, 66th in passing), No. 27 in scoring defense. Tossing out everybody’s patsy games, they’ve beaten 3-3 South Carolina, 1-3 Arizona State, 1-4 Tennessee and 3-2 Vanderbilt. They lost to 5-0 Alabama.

LSU - No. 40 nationally in total offense (36th in rushing, 51st in passing), No. 38 in scoring offense. No. 24 in total defense (16th in rushing, 51st in passing), No. 44 in scoring defense. Tossing out the patsy games, they’ve beaten 2-3 Auburn, 1-4 Mississippi State and 3-3 South Carolina. They lost to 5-1 Florida.

Both teams’ losses were high on the humiliation scale, so I’ll call 41 - 30 and 51 - 21 more or less a wash in terms of hammering statistical rankings. LSU comes out worse in that comparison, but they earned it.

There is, of course, one common foe - South Carolina. The Cocks put up 289 yards and 7 points on Georgia; 254 yards and 17 points on LSU. Georgia dropped 252 yards and 14 points on the Cocks; LSU put up 363 yards and 24 points.

Beyond the South Carolina comparison, LSU does not fare well in the statistical comparison. Neither team has a really significant win, and both lost to a quality opponent.

Georgia - notably - has been improving on defense, holding three of its last four teams under 250 total yards (Alabama put 324 on them) after giving up 599 yards to two patsies to open the season. LSU’s best defensive performances were against its two patsies to start the season, and the Tigers haven’t held anybody under 250 yards since.

On offense, Georgia has also rung up 400-plus yards in three of its last four games (Alabama, again, the exception) after a lackluster 252 yards put up on South Carolina. LSU cracked the 400-yard mark only once in its last four games - 427 put up on Mississippi State.

There’s a big imbalance there that concerns me. I expect Georgia to have the more powerful offense. But over the entire season and especially of late, the Dawgs outshine the Tigers on both sides of the ball. There’s not a lot of hope offered LSU in the numbers.

More subjectively, it’s important to look at the weaknesses of the two teams. For Georgia’s offense, it’s finishing drives. The Dawgs have scored 25 offensive touchdowns and made 15 field goals. And they have just two non-offensive scores (a punt return and an interception return). The high field goal to touchdown ratio coupled with the Dawgs’ penchant for penalties is why they are No. 26 in total offense but just No. 35 in scoring offense.

Much has been made of Georgia’s young and injured offensive line, but they still allow just 1.14 sacks per game.

For LSU, the offensive weakness is, of course, the quarterbacks. Jarrett Lee shows flashes of competence but remains young and shaky. And Andrew Hatch is Andrew Hatch. Our line protects well (one sack per game) and enables the run, but until our quarterbacks can really open up the offense and get the ball to LaFell, Byrd, etc. downfield, it’s too easy for good defenses to contain the LSU offense.

Defensively, both teams are weak in pass coverage, with Georgia performing worse than LSU there. But Georgia is in a better position to exploit poor coverage with Stafford at the helm.

Put these two teams on the field and have them run the gameplans we’ve been seeing from both, and Georgia wins on Saturday. That’s obvious in the numbers and past performance.

What LSU needs is a radical change in their approach to this game - and a lot of faith in Jarrett Lee.

Like with the brilliant plan put in place against Florida last year (keep the ball away from Tebow at all costs), Miles and Co. need a Georgia-specific plan this weekend. My suggestion is this:

- Georgia will move the ball and they will score points. Chances are Stafford will pick apart LSU’s poor coverage no matter what, so focus on heavy pressure, lots of blitzes and let what happens downfield happen. Don’t let receivers get behind the coverage and keep the Dawgs from getting the long touchdown - force them to execute a red-zone offense if Stafford beats the pressure. Chances are they’ll end up with a field goal or two instead of touchdowns.

- Jarrett Lee has to attack the Dawgs’ weakness, pass coverage. Hard. Trying to be conservative and take pressure off the young quarterback will result in Georgia bottling up the LSU offense. Open it up and air it out. The Tigers have to put faith in Lee to hit his receivers and not make stupid throws.

Yes, I’m calling for a shootout. It goes against LSU’s post-JaMarcus mentality, but it is what’s called for in this game. LSU’s pass coverage won’t stop Stafford, so try to stop him with pressure but expect a big day for the Georgia offense. And that will need to be countered by a big offensive show by LSU. Fortunately, Georgia’s weakness in coverage opens the door for that.

I think LSU’s defense will be up to the challenge, but it would be a lot to ask of Lee. Maybe he’ll have a career day, but I see him falling just short.

Georgia 44 - 42

Yes, I’m projecting not only an outcome, but also a strategy. If LSU tries to run its standard game, this one could look more like the Florida score.

Elsewhere in the SEC:

No. 2 Alabama at Tennessee: The hope for the Vols in this game lies with Bama’s last two games - a four-point win over Ole Miss and a three-point win over Kentucky. There’s nothing in the Vols’ performances this year that would suggest anything they bring to stop Alabama, but could two shaky games at home translate into an upset on the road for the Tide? I think it’s possible, but I’m not banking on it.

Bama 21 - 17

Kentucky at No. 10 Florida: The Wildcats lost their top running back this week to go along with losing their top receiver. Things unravel from here.

Gators 38 - 10

Auburn at West Virginia: West Virginia is the poster child for overrated teams in bad conferences, and I have a hard time picking them to win much of anything. And they’re in a rebuilding year. But Auburn gives me no reason to pick them to win against anybody these days, having lost to Vandy and Arkansas in back-to-back games. But maybe the week off will have helped Tubs pull together some kind of post-Franklin offense.

Auburn 23 - 17

Ole Miss at Arkansas: Houston Nutt coming home to play a bad Arkansas team and talking about how his Rebels could easily be 6-1. He has a lot to prove, and I look for him to do just that.

Ole Miss 31 - 20

Duke at Vanderbilt: The ‘Dores achieve their dream of bowl eligibility against Duke.

Vandy 21 - 20

MTSU at Mississippi State: The Bulldogs lost to a poor WAC team to open the season, but I think they have themselves together enough to not lose to a poor Sun Belt team now.

Mississippi State 28 - 17

It does not bode well. Not well at all. LSU should not have to “pull one out” against the likes of South Carolina. It should not take halftime adjustments to finally shut down a one-dimensional offense ranked No. 104 in rushing being led by a freshman starting his first game.

LSU’s offense is unspectacular, but that’s expected and should be OK. But it’s not. Last night the Tiger offense scored one more touchdown than the No. 7 offense in the SEC. Last week it scored four fewer than the No. 2 offense in the SEC. And this week the No. 1 offense comes to Baton Rouge.

We will not win a shootout against Georgia. We won’t be able to adjust ourselves out of a poor plan and poor play early (see Florida). Barring some bit of sorcery conjured up by one or both of the guys pretending to be our defensive coordinator, next week’s game could be very ugly.

Elsewhere in the SEC:

Georgia’s lackluster win over Vanderbilt does offer a measure of hope for LSU. I’m sure UGA fans will say “the Vandy game is always tough”, just like “the South Carolina game is always tough”, but the Dawgs still manage to make enough mistakes week in and week out to keep their opponents within striking distance. This was, though, a good week for Georgia to finally start finishing drives and not settling for field goals.

Alabama was lucky to come away with a win over Ole Miss. The Rebels outgained the Tide and held Fonzie’s boys scoreless in the second half after giving up 24 in the first. Losing Mt. Cody was a big blow to the Bama defense, but there’s something to this problem of finishing games. Cumulative scores by quarter for Bama and its opponents: First - 95-3, Second - 76-20, Third - 32-21, Fourth 23-47. I imagine it has a lot to do with the youth of the team and problems executing adjustments. Saban can gameplan them up real well during the week, but it’s harder to get them to adjust well during the game. Fortunately for Alabama, they execute real well to start games.

Tennessee can feel good about itself for rolling Mississippi State 34 - 3 thanks to two interceptions returned for touchdowns, but this was a 6 - 3 game at heart. Lots of problems remain for Fulmer. And I blew the pick.

Kentucky had to come from behind to beat Arkansas. Sad.

For the week: 4 - 1
For the season: 46 - 12

Critics of two-quarterback systems like to say that when you have two quarterbacks, you really have no quarterback. And they’re right. Doesn’t the same, though, hold true on the sidelines?

LSU has two defensive coordinators, and therefore has no defensive coordinator. And it’s really starting to show.

The Tigers, of course, make their living on defense. In its 2003 championship season, the Tigers finished No. 1 in total defense; No. 1 in scoring defense. In last year’s championship season, the Tigers finished No. 3 in total defense and No. 17 in scoring defense (reflecting 38 points given in six overtime periods).

Going in to the South Carolina game, the Tigers were ranked No. 32 in total defense; No. 52 in scoring defense. And that’s not a statistical fluke of the humiliation at Florida. LSU gave up 320 yards and 21 points to an Auburn team that could manage just 208 yards and 13 points against Vanderbilt and 284 yards and 24 points to Mississippi State, which managed just 116 yards and 2 points against Auburn.

And tonight against South Carolina, the Tigers gave up 226 yards and 17 points in the first half before turning up the quarterback pressure and shutting down the Cocks in the second half.

The LSU defense is just not very good. It’s certainly not the kind of defense we’re used to.

Yes, the Tigers returned just five starters this year. Losing Glenn Dorsey, Ali Highsmith, Jonathan Zenon, Craig Steltz and Chevis Jackson surely had an impact. But the two-deep depth chart features seven seniors, eight juniors, three sophomores, three redshirt freshmen and just one true freshman. That’s 15 upperclassmen and seven underclassmen - the same mix LSU won a national title with in ‘03. This is not a young, green team.

No, the glaring difference in on the sidelines. After losing Bo Pelini to Nebraska, Les Miles replaced his defensive coordinator with - nobody. Pelini did not have position-coaching responsibilities; he was focused solely on running the defense. Same with Will Muschamp when he was at LSU.

But now LSU has this ridiculous “Co-Defensive Coordinator” setup with defensive backs coach Doug Mallory and linebackers coach Bradley Dale Peveto also “sharing” the responsibility of running the defense. To fill Pelini’s parking space at the Football Operations Center, Miles hired Joe Robinson to take over special-teams duty from Peveto and help out with the defensive line (the one area of the defense that actually still has a dedicated coach).

And it’s not like Miles is a defensive coach like Nick Saban, whose defensive philosophy drives the strategy. Saban now has a Defensive Head Coach as well as Defensive Coordinator under him at Alabama, and those guys have position responsibilities as well. But there’s no doubt who’s in charge of the Bama defense.

Let’s see - our defense is in general disarray with the most troubling spots being pass coverage by the linebackers and defensive backs. Gee, that wouldn’t have anything to do with LSU not having one guy dedicated solely to any of those responsibilities, would it?

That, friends, is how you dismantle a defense.

With the possible exception of Will Muschamp, there’s not a defensive coach in America who wouldn’t have packed his shit faster than Tony Franklin and headed straight to Baton Rouge had Leslie dialed him up. Fonzie is at Alabama; Pelini at Nebraska and Muschamp at Texas as the most sought-after head-coaching candidate right now because of what they did on defense at LSU. It’s a fantastic stepping-stone for any defensive-minded coach.

And Miles hired - nobody. He didn’t even elevate Mallory or Peveto to the position. He eliminated it. Now LSU is left to overcome a problem when it should be strengthening a fantastic defense. That’s inexcusable.

From The Advocate (the Baton Rouge daily, not the national gay newspaper) this morning:

Miles said Wednesday that he “leaning toward” seeking a redshirt for freshman quarterback Jordan Jefferson, who has taken one snap this season and injured his right (throwing) shoulder on the play vs. Mississippi State. Miles said the final call will decide on how things play out the next few weeks with Lee and sophomore backup Andrew Hatch

From what I understand (correct me if I’m wrong), the “redshirt” opportunity is gone as soon as a player takes that first snap. What Leslie would be doing - and why this “shoulder injury” is key - is requesting a “medical hardship” for Jefferson to give him an extra year of eligibility. That hardship must be approved by the SEC.

Apparently that’s a fairly standard gimmick for getting a “redshirt” for a young guy who has just played a little, but it’s probably not the best strategy for Miles to tell the media that the “final call” depends on how well Hatch and Lee play in the coming games. Seems that if you’re seeking the medical hardship, the “final call” would be related to the player’s injury.

If the SEC actually considers the facts of a “medical hardship”, Leslie’s making it really easy for them to see this ruse.

While giving Georgia fans at EAV Buzz a hard time about their looming “blackout” game against Alabama this weekend, I realized that Les Miles broke with the Saban Jersey Doctrine against North Texas two weeks ago.

The Saban Doctrine says that LSU shall wear purple jerseys at home for non-conference games that are not the home opener. Miles has followed this doctrine, breaking the practice only for the Arizona game in ‘06 - the unspoken corollary being the rule is followed unless the game is against a non-patsy team.

Yet against North Texas, the Tigers were in glorious white:

Having opened at home against Appalachian State, and with North Texas being a patsy, by the Saban Doctrine the Tigers should have been in purple jerseys.

Discounting the very real notion that Leslie simply forgot this rule, it would be great if Miles has quietly done away with the practice. Maybe he felt a need to hang on to Fonzie’s ways before he got his own crystal football, but he surely doesn’t need to now.

Don’t go messing with the uniform, Les (I don’t want to see any “eye of the Tiger” crap showing up on them), but I’d endorse going back to full-time white jerseys at home.

I’ll take the suspense out of this right up front - I’m not picking LSU to win the SEC West. There’s just no way I can at the moment given our quarterback situation. It would appear that the man taking the first snaps of the season will, in fact, be Mr. Andrew Hatch - late of the Harvard junior varsity and a Mormon mission in Chile.

I don’t mean to sound harsh, but Hatch has no business starting a season, much less a game - or getting significant playing time at all - at LSU. He is in this situation only because of the most unlikely of quarterback shortages and - apparently - because Jarrett Lee has a sore back.

It would be a much more concerning situation if Hatch (who doesn’t even have a Scout.com profile if that gives you a sense of the “buzz” around him in high school) had actually beat out the highly-regarded Lee, and part of me wonders if Lee’s “back pain” might be Leslie’s way of keeping an unready Lee out of the opener without tipping his hand that the guy who should be his best QB just isn’t ready to lead the team. That might not be a bad approach, and certainly a better idea than to put him on the field to embarrass himself and open the door for a really big upset.

Fortunately for the Tigers, the season starts with three games that should be winnable using direct snaps to Charles Scott and fake field goals from your own 20 on second down. The problem comes Sept. 20 at Auburn. One would assume the goal is to have a solid, tested, proven quarterback in place by then. If Lee is either not healthy enough to get a whole lot of work in during these first three games or - God forbid - actually not as good as Hatch, LSU is in for a world of pain.

And as it stands, I can’t pick LSU to beat Auburn four weeks from now with Andrew Hatch as our presumptive quarterback. I reserve the right to modify that opinion based on the first three games and ultimately what shakes out at QB, but the Perrilloux Penalty is - I pick Auburn to win the SEC West.

I see LSU finishing 9-3, second in the SEC West. Much of the season’s fortunes will ride on the quarterback position. By the time Oct. 11 rolls around, the Tigers had better have the offense clicking if they are to get past Florida. And I don’t see that happening. I think by that point we’ll be seeing Lee as the starter - possibly only as a bridge to Jordan Jefferson. Auburn will have shown Hatch as inadequate, and Lee will at best be getting fully into the groove come the Florida game. Again, things could change, but I foresee the Tigers not being ready to run with the Gators.

I’m picking Georgia to beat LSU, largely because LSU will be coming off games at Florida and at South Carolina, and Georgia will be coming off games hosting Tennessee and hosting Vandy. If the Tigers have two losses and Mark Richt puts his boys in black underwear or something, I think Georgia can motivate their way into a win there.

But I like the prospect of LSU finishing strong. Given the implosion of Perrilloux and the lack of an experienced quarterback to enter the season, I think 9-3 would be a heck of an accomplishment for Leslie’s damn strong team.

LSU Wins: Mississippi State, South Carolina, Alabama, Ole Miss, Arkansas, all the non-conference teams. Losses: Auburn, Florida, Georgia. SEC Finish: 5-3, 2nd SEC West

The War Eagles have a good number of questions to answer themselves, but I think on balance it’s a toss up on talent and schedule with LSU, and as things stand on August 24, they’re in a better position come Sept. 20.

I see Auburn building their offensive mojo and pulling their young defense together over the course of the season. I like their chances of stumbling a bit early on, and finishing big, but I like Fonzie’s chances to pull off an upset to end the season. Wins: Mississippi State, LSU, Vandy, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Georgia. Losses: Tennessee, Alabama. SEC Finish: 6-2, 1st SEC West.

My pick to finish third is Alabama. Everybody sees Julio Jones as savior, but not in Fonzie’s world. Nick Saban is too proud to turn to a freshman and too demanding to put up with a lot of freshman mistakes. I think that means Jones won’t be a hero until later in the season if at all, but more significantly it’s a problem for Saban’s young defense. “Young” is never good in Saban’s complex and demanding set of schemes, and it’ll show. Maybe next year, but 2008 will be a challenge for the Tide. Wins: Arkansas, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Auburn. Losses: Georgia, Tennessee, LSU. SEC Finish: 5-3, 3rd SEC West.

Next is Mississippi State, which I won’t say much about except 8-5 is darn good for y’all! Wins: Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Arkansas, Ole Miss. Losses: Auburn, LSU, Tennessee, Alabama. SEC Finish: 4-4, 4th SEC West.

Then it’s Ole Miss, who will not be good. Wins: Vanderbilt, Arkansas. Losses: Florida, South Carolina, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State. SEC Finish: 2-6, 5th SEC West.

Pains me to predict an SEC win for Arkansas and their new jackass coach. Wins: Kentucky. Losses: Alabama, Florida, Auburn, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Mississippi State, LSU. SEC Finish: 1-7, 6th SEC West.

Of course, nothing ever plays out as anybody predicts, and there will surely be upsets along the way, better finishes than predicted and maybe a collapse by a favorite. But this is my view at the moment.

In the SEC Championship Game, I see a one-loss Florida team (the highest-ranked one-loss team, having lost early against Tennessee) … blowing their shot and losing to Auburn.