Cap’n Ken’s Homespun Wisdom

In all but one extremely obvious way (I’ll give you a hint - it wears number 12), LSU is a better team than Alabama. I thought that going in to today’s game, and the results showed it. For all of Jarrett Lee’s gifts to Alabama, the Tigers still managed to take this one to overtime.

Of course, Lee had to play in overtime as well, and thus Alabama wins.

There’s no need to make a case for how bad Lee is. Tossing interceptions 11 through 14 on a night he completed 38% of his passes speaks for itself. He is and has to be the Tigers’ main quarterback, but no Jordan Jefferson - at all? After Lee goes 4 for 15 with two interceptions in the first half - no looks for Jefferson … at all?

Leslie got a bit indignant with Tracy Wolfson when she asked about Jefferson during the halftime interview, saying something along the lines of there being “talk” of that, but he didn’t know that he would play him (I’ll look for a clip of that). What might that “talk” have been? Well, it was Leslie on Monday saying as much:

In Leslie Coachspeak, “that game” means the previous one (Tulane) and “this game” means the upcoming one (Alabama).

So where was Jefferson? Maybe something happened during the week that precluded Leslie from playing him, but it surely was called for and I’ll be interested to see how Miles explains away his absence.

UPDATE: From his post-game news conference - Leslie seems to contradict his Monday statement that he planned to play Jefferson:

OK, so … coach, you’re confusing me. Something go wrong at practice? It would help boost the confidence of the people listening to you if you didn’t so obviously contradict yourself without some explanation of why things changed. And Baton Rouge media - awesome job not asking why he told you on Monday that he expected Jefferson to play and then acted tonight like it would be ridiculous to do so.

Obviously Lee was a huge liability in this game. And like in the Georgia game, subtract the negative impact of Jarrett Lee and LSU likely wins the game. But the Georgia game (like the Florida game, which we would have lost no matter what) was just comically blown by Lee. The Tigers were never in the Florida game and were out of it early in the second half against Georgia.

This one was different. Despite all of the mistakes, LSU stayed in the game. The Tigers beat Bama’s run defense bad - putting up 153 yards in the first half against a team that came in giving up 65 a game. And somehow Lee managed a solid drive in the fourth quarter to tie the game. The third quarter was an offensive wasteland.

Again, why there was no Jordan Jefferson for a second-half change of pace - especially considering LSU ran a couple of direct-snap plays for Richard Murphy and showed they could beat Bama’s run defense - is just baffling.

The defense didn’t play great, giving the Tide 14 yards less than their 369-per-game average (and just three yards less than Arkansas State gave them last week), but it was manageable. Two drives resulted in touchdowns (if you can call a zero-yard drive after an interception a drive), two resulted in turnovers, two resulted in missed/blocked field goals and seven resulted in punts. LSU’s defense did well enough - unless your quarterback is Jarrett Lee.

This was an extremely frustrating loss. We should have beaten the No. 1 team in the country that is a longtime heated rival now led by our former coach … and despite ourselves, we almost did. It’s easy to lay the blame on the guy who threw four interceptions including the suicide pass into double-coverage in overtime, and I do blame him.

But I want to know what the hell Leslie and the coaching staff were thinking. Why was there no Jefferson? Why do you give Lee enough rope to hang himself in overtime? From the outside view, it just looked like Miles had decided he was going to live or die by Lee. In the global sense, that’s the way it has to be this year, but I would expect much better situational management of a game. Maybe not from Miles, though.

It’s Fonziefest Saturday in Baton Rouge. Mr. Saban and Co. roll in to town with a No. 1 ranking and the ire of all of Louisiana glaring down on the coach. No. 16 LSU is wounded, humiliated and all but out of the SEC West race. If ever there was a time to pull everything together, this is it for LSU.

When you start to take a look at Alabama, one thing jumps right out - No. 2 rushing defense, allowing just 65.56 yards per game.

But I’m not quite sure I buy it. At the very least, the rush defense of Alabama hasn’t been put to much of a test. Only three teams they’ve faced (Georgia, Ole Miss and Arkansas State) average more than 150 yards per game on the ground, which is literally the middle of the pack mark when it comes to rushing offenses across the country. And while the Tide held each of those teams below their rush average, Ole Miss managed to put 158 rush yards on them.

So what does Ole Miss do well? They use speed to get to the edges. And therein, I believe, lies the key to attacking Alabama.

LSU focused a lot of effort in last week’s game on getting the ball to Keiland Williams and Richard Murphy - the fast guys of the rush offense. Williams got the most carries in the game (13) and Murphy got as many as Charles Scott (12). Tiger fans looked for Bama planning during the Tulane game and were disappointed to not see more passing by Jarrett Lee. But I think what LSU might have been working on was a corner-heavy rush game to throw at Bama.

And I think LSU can be successful at it.

The Tiger passing game will be what it will be, and the Tide offers opportunities, as their pass defense is unspectacular (34th in the country). Put Lee on a tighter leash and LSU can put up numbers against Alabama.

Defensively, the Tigers should be able to focus on shutting down the run and make John Parker Wilson be a better passer than his numbers suggest. Bama gets just 163.67 passing yards a game (102nd in the country), and JPW has broken 200 yards just twice this year. Faith this week needs to be placed in the defensive backs and LSU should drop the hammer on the run.

Mistakes, of course, would kill the Tigers. There’s a lot of growing up that needs to be done this week.

But I think this one is doable. Run to the edges, throw Jordan Jefferson at Bama a bit, let Lee take his shots when he can and make John Parker Wilson beat you with his arm.

Tigers 31 - 30

Elsewhere in the SEC:

No. 5 Florida at Vanderbilt. Oh, Vandy. You and your five wins (and three straight losses). You’re trying to be bowl eligible; Florida is trying to claw its way back up toward the BCS title game.

Gators 56 - 13

No. 13 Georgia at Kentucky. An emotionally-wounded Georgia team visits a physically-wounded Kentucky team. The Dawgs have the ability to pull themselves back together. The ‘Cats do not.

Georgia 42 - 27

Arkansas at South Carolina. Kind of a big deal for Spurrier this week. His team has a shot to go 7-3 going in to the Florida game next week. I don’t think Arkansas stands in his way.

Cocks 24 - 20

Wyoming at Tennessee. I think even the lame-duck Fulmer staff can take the Cowboys.

Vols 28 - 10

Tennessee-Martin at Auburn. Would you believe UT-M has the No. 2 scoring offense in the country? They do, helped greatly by dropping 87 points on Concordia-Selma earlier this season. I’d like to think Auburn could totally fall apart with a loss here, but that’s just crazy talk.

War Eagles 17 - 9

Also, I could have sworn I posted a recap of last week, but I guess not. I was 4-3 for the week to move to 55-17 on the season.

So I was watching this horrible “FCS Tailgate Tour” show that my DVR picked up from the LSU / UGA game the weekend before last and it featured this awesome UGA fan’s gag:

Loyal Wisdom readers will recall that this lame “LSU fans smell like corndogs” thing has made the rounds (short story - some Auburn fan’s senses go to “corndog” when he smells fried food), and I guess this Dawg fan wanted to get in on the action. So he makes himself a little “FREE CORNDOGS” sign and stands around holding it up for the world to behold his awesomeness and so LSU fans will cry.

You go, Dawg. Lemme hear the “woof, woof” thing like Arsenio’s audience used to do.

Had he been a little more studied on LSU tendencies, he might have made a “FREE FOOTBALL-TO-YOUR-ENDZONE DELIVERY SERVICE” sign in honor of Jarrett Lee, but no.

No, I don’t have much enthusiasm for college football right now. But I shall at least make picks.

Tulane comes in to Baton Rouge to face the Tigers. What the hell am I to make of the Greenies? 36th nationally in total offense, but 95th in scoring offense. 33rd in total defense but 80th in scoring defense. Does not compute. Does Tulane drive to the opponents’ one-yard line and then just hand the ball to a linebacker and let him run it back for a touchdown? Bizarre.

But this is a team that lost by 31 to Army and 25 to Rice.

LSU 45 - 27

Elsewhere in the SEC:

No. 6 Georgia and No. 8 Florida. The Gators bring a better defense than LSU and a better offense as well. Georgia allowed 497 yards in the LSU game. And the Gators have a lot to prove after losing last year.

Florida 41 - 34

Auburn at Ole Miss. Both teams are 4-4 and 2-3 in conference play. But the feelings about those results could not be more different in Oxford and Opelika. Dare I say Auburn finally figures out a way to move the ball consistently? Had Ole Miss performed better against Arkansas, I would probably pick them here.

War Eagles 17 - 16

Tennessee at South Carolina. They say it’s the game to save Phil Fulmer’s job. There’s not much reason to see a chance for Tennessee here, but anything is possible.

Cocks 14 - 9

Kentucky at Mississippi State. A real stinker between teams that are both 1-3 in conference play. Too many important guys out for the ‘Cats, but Croom doesn’t bring much to the table. I’ll go with the ‘Cats defense here.

Kentucky 20 - 17

Tulsa at Arkansas. Tulsa throws up 624 yards and 56 points a game. Seriously. Yes, it’s against bad competition, but that’s what Arkansas is.

Golden Hurricane 42 - 20

Arkansas State at Alabama. Seems like years since Fonzie’s boys played a good team.

Tide 38 - 13

Early in the second quarter of LSU’s loss to Georgia on Saturday, the officials waived off a pass interference flag against the Dawgs because it was very incorrectly ruled that the pass was tipped by a Georgia player at the line. The bad call ended an LSU drive and forced the Tigers to settle for a 51-yard Colt David field goal instead of potentially tying the game at 14.

Not the hugest of deals in the grand scheme of things, as David’s long field goal gave the Tigers three points in place of the potential seven. But I wondered at the time why there was no review of the call, no challenge by Les Miles and not even a timeout called to buy some more time for the officials to look at the play.

It turns out that Miles believes such an event is unreviewable:

Notwithstanding his nonsensical “basically, they have to pick the thing up and wave it off, otherwise you’ve got no shot” line (do what?), is he right?

I’m not so sure.

In the 2008 NCAA Rules and Interpretations (PDF), they have a section of interpretations - for the first time, it seems - about what’s reviewable. And it includes this example:

Seems to me that’s exactly what happened on the LSU play. I’d like to think big-time football programs keep law students as interns and on standby in the booth for just such moments, but I guess that’s not the case. And on the replay, Miles was talking to an official after the play, so maybe he was incorrectly told the play is not reviewable. Or maybe I’m reading that interpretation wrong and it’s not reviewable. On its broadcast, CBS said it was a reviewable call.

If the play is reviewable, it would be a shame for nobody on the LSU staff to know that, and more of a shame if the official incorrectly told Miles it wasn’t reviewable. And even more of a shame for the replay official to not realize it and stop the action. If Miles was told that by the official and didn’t independently know the reality, I guess he would have been at a loss to do much about it.

But I wonder what the protocol is to tell an official you think he’s wrong about the crew’s ability to review a play. I think probably you call a timeout without lodging an official challenge, and then use that time to get the official to think more about things.

This time, the badly blown call and lack of review was fairly insignificant to the outcome of the game. But put this call in the position of something like LSU’s drive-killing bad call against Auburn in 2006, and it’s something everybody ought to know the reality of and get right.

I’m a little shocked at how accurate my prediction was for what would go down in the LSU / UGA game. It was a game of poor defense ultimately decided by the capabilities of the opposing quarterbacks.

Jarrett Lee didn’t come through. He needed a big game with few mistakes. He had his best game by production (287 yards, 3 TDs), but also his poorest overall effort (three interceptions, 50% completion rate) on Saturday. In the simplest of terms, he lost this game for LSU.

Forgetting Lee’s mistakes for a moment, LSU was in control of the game. The Tigers actually had an effective run game early, with Charles Scott laying down 41 yards on LSU’s second possession. Mixing good passes in, LSU marched 72 yards with ease to tie things up at 7 - 7.

Sure, LSU had no defense early, but they clamped down on the Dawgs in the second quarter and got the game to 21 - 17 with five minutes to go in the half and the ball in Lee’s hands. But instead of driving the Tigers down the field to either take the lead with a touchdown or make it a one-point game with a field goal, Lee chucked a horrible pass into the UGA secondary, got picked off and ended up handing the Dawgs another three points.

That 24 - 17 lead became 38 - 24 after a disastrous third quarter in which Lee didn’t complete a pass and got yanked for Andrew Hatch. Only a big Charles Scott run kept the game somewhat close. Things, of course, got really out of hand with Lee’s third interception and not even the generous Georgia defense could save LSU at that point.

Gary Crowton had a great gameplan for Georgia. The Tigers dropped more rushing yards and passing yards on the Dawgs than any opponent this year (497 total yards - also LSU’s biggest output of the season) and only Alabama has scored more on the Dawgs. The ugly reality was that LSU had to put up big numbers to compensate for the horrible Tiger defense, and they did. With a competent quarterback, this would have been about a 48 - 45 win.

But the bigger problem does still lie in the Tiger defense. As Leslie himself said:

“It certainly has to be reviewed as to the specifics of what happened and who and why,” Miles said, and on the word ‘why,’ he put strong emphasis. He then went back and forth on if what defensive co-coordinator Doug Mallory is calling is too complicated or not.

“And if the answer is not an easy one, then it’s maybe can’t,” he said. “Can’t we call something that the guys can figure out? But to me just off mind’s eye from the game, I don’t think the coverage was particularly difficult. It’s not like we were involved in a bunch of combo coverages and a bunch of different things. It was pretty simple.”

Your problem, Mr. Miles, is that you don’t have a defensive coordinator. Mallory has position responsibility for the defensive backs - how much in-game coaching are they getting when their coach is sitting up in the press box trying to plan for the next UGA possession? If he’s on the phone with them explaining what they need to be doing, who’s planning the defense - the linebackers’ coach who also carries the ridiculous “co-coordinator” title? His guys also need a lot of in-game attention, you know.

After this week’s game, the Tigers sit at No. 35 nationally in total defense, No. 68 in scoring defense, and No. 61 in pass defense. The strong spot (if you can call it that) is that LSU is No. 27 in rush defense. And, not coincidentally, they have a full-time coach working with the defensive line.

To recap recent history:

- 2000: 46th in total defense (Phil Elmassian)
- 2001: 75th in total defense (Gary Gibbs)
- 2002: 8th in total defense (Will Muschamp)
- 2003: 1st in total defense (Will Muschamp)
- 2004: 3rd in total defense (Will Muschamp)
- 2005: 3rd in total defense (Bo Pelini)
- 2006: 3rd in total defense (Bo Pelini)
- 2007: 3rd in total defense (Bo Pelini)
- 2008: 35th in total defense (Nobody)

It’s not surprising that “nobody” is a better choice for defensive coordinator than Gary Gibbs, but it’s easy to see the effect of the coordinator role on defensive performance. Muschamp built the defense; Pelini maintained it; Miles destroyed it.

Elsewhere in the SEC:

I was surprised at the level of defensive collapse by Auburn Thursday night. Lack of a consistent offense wasn’t a shocker, but looks like it’s time for Tuberville to fire somebody else.

And I guess Duke winning was an upset. I blew the pick, so it has to be. Otherwise, Florida laid serious wood to an incomplete Kentucky team, Alabama was sufficiently ready for Tennessee, Houston Nutt got his revenge and Croom beat a patsy.

For the week: 5 - 2
For the season: 51 - 14