Cap’n Ken’s Homespun Wisdom

We are, as I begin to write this, 90 minutes away from the start of college football season. These are my favorite four-plus months of the year, by far. And away we go.

No. 6 LSU, of course, opens up by hosting No. 1 (in I-AA) Appalachian State Saturday afternoon in Baton Rouge. And there is but one goal for the Tigers - don’t be Michigan. And, I suppose, figure out who your quarterback is. But most importantly - don’t be Michigan.

What I expect out of this game - I have no idea. App State has Armanti Edwards, who isn’t worth much as a passer, but runs a lot. Maybe the Mountaineers will play Arkansas’ Wildhog offense. Worked pretty well during LSU’s last home game.

But I have to believe big-school talent and a strong motivation to not be Michigan overcomes whatever shred of potency and motivation App State will be able to muster for this game. I figure LSU’s defense should be pretty tight, considering how well we’ve been starting seasons of late, and I figure the offense will run a lot, be successful at that and test our QBs in the passing game and overall field leadership. So knock off a few points for the semi-scrimmage and QB tryout nature of this one.

LSU 31 - 10

Elsewhere in the SEC:

No. 9 Clemson plays No. 26 Alabama just up the road at the Georgia Dome. This is actually a game I’d love to go see as a disinterested party, but not at the expense of LSU on ESPN. Fonzie has said Julio Jones will start at wide receiver in his first game out of high school (and against a top-10 team), but I don’t expect Bama to lean too heavily on the soon-to-be superstar. I expect Bama’s too-young defense to get eaten up by the Tigers, who return enough playmakers to have a distinct edge in an opener. Clemson 27 - 17

No. 18 Tennessee at No. 46 UCLA (Monday). Damn the NCAA and the networks and their non-Saturday games. Yeah, I know it’s a holiday and all that, but this would have made a great capper to a Saturday not filled with enough good games. But it is what it is. I don’t know a heck of a lot about UCLA except that their always-hurt quarterback is hurt again. And they have new coaches up and down the line, including Norm Chow - ex of USC. But whatever excitement may come from that other L.A. team, it’s a long way off. Vols 24 - 15

Hawaii at No. 5 Florida. Once upon a time, this didn’t seem like a bad game. But injuries, suspensions, coaches leaving and the general de-flowering of Hawaii as a serious football program set this one up to be yet another long trip to humiliation for the Rainbows. Gators 56 - 3

Georgia Southern at No. 1 Georgia. I hear the number one team in the country can’t even get their opener on TV. Sad, really. Georgia 13 - 10

LA-Monroe at No. 11 Auburn. Yeah, it was cool last season when ULM beat Fonzie and the gang. Can they march back in to Alabama and do it again? No. Auburn 27 - 10

N.C. State at No. 27 South Carolina (Thursday). The Wolfpack finished 5-7 last year; the Cocks 6-6. But there’s more than a one-game spread in the programs right now. Cocks 19 - 12

No. 44 Kentucky at No. 50 Louisville. Oh, but for a fleeting moment this matchup was somewhat significant. Those days are gone. Kentucky 42 - 35

No. 42 Mississippi State at Louisiana Tech. Wait - at Louisiana Tech? Damn, Sly, I thought you were past that kind of stuff now. Nobody goes to Ruston. Mississippi State 52 - 20

Memphis at Ole Miss. So was it Coach O, or are the Rebels really as bad as they played under the Crazy Cajun? I’m gonna give Nutt the benefit of the doubt. Ole Miss 31 - 27

Western Illinois at Arkansas. I love that Jackass’ team didn’t get a single vote in the pre-season poll. Not a one. And I can never keep up with these “Western” schools - is this one of the decent ones? Who cares - Arkansas 10 - 2

Vanderbilt at Miami (Not Florida). OK, Vandy I can see going on the road to play some loser team. And I picked them to go winless in the SEC; I’ll toss a bone. Vandy 6 - 3

I’ll take the suspense out of this right up front - I’m not picking LSU to win the SEC West. There’s just no way I can at the moment given our quarterback situation. It would appear that the man taking the first snaps of the season will, in fact, be Mr. Andrew Hatch - late of the Harvard junior varsity and a Mormon mission in Chile.

I don’t mean to sound harsh, but Hatch has no business starting a season, much less a game - or getting significant playing time at all - at LSU. He is in this situation only because of the most unlikely of quarterback shortages and - apparently - because Jarrett Lee has a sore back.

It would be a much more concerning situation if Hatch (who doesn’t even have a Scout.com profile if that gives you a sense of the “buzz” around him in high school) had actually beat out the highly-regarded Lee, and part of me wonders if Lee’s “back pain” might be Leslie’s way of keeping an unready Lee out of the opener without tipping his hand that the guy who should be his best QB just isn’t ready to lead the team. That might not be a bad approach, and certainly a better idea than to put him on the field to embarrass himself and open the door for a really big upset.

Fortunately for the Tigers, the season starts with three games that should be winnable using direct snaps to Charles Scott and fake field goals from your own 20 on second down. The problem comes Sept. 20 at Auburn. One would assume the goal is to have a solid, tested, proven quarterback in place by then. If Lee is either not healthy enough to get a whole lot of work in during these first three games or - God forbid - actually not as good as Hatch, LSU is in for a world of pain.

And as it stands, I can’t pick LSU to beat Auburn four weeks from now with Andrew Hatch as our presumptive quarterback. I reserve the right to modify that opinion based on the first three games and ultimately what shakes out at QB, but the Perrilloux Penalty is - I pick Auburn to win the SEC West.

I see LSU finishing 9-3, second in the SEC West. Much of the season’s fortunes will ride on the quarterback position. By the time Oct. 11 rolls around, the Tigers had better have the offense clicking if they are to get past Florida. And I don’t see that happening. I think by that point we’ll be seeing Lee as the starter - possibly only as a bridge to Jordan Jefferson. Auburn will have shown Hatch as inadequate, and Lee will at best be getting fully into the groove come the Florida game. Again, things could change, but I foresee the Tigers not being ready to run with the Gators.

I’m picking Georgia to beat LSU, largely because LSU will be coming off games at Florida and at South Carolina, and Georgia will be coming off games hosting Tennessee and hosting Vandy. If the Tigers have two losses and Mark Richt puts his boys in black underwear or something, I think Georgia can motivate their way into a win there.

But I like the prospect of LSU finishing strong. Given the implosion of Perrilloux and the lack of an experienced quarterback to enter the season, I think 9-3 would be a heck of an accomplishment for Leslie’s damn strong team.

LSU Wins: Mississippi State, South Carolina, Alabama, Ole Miss, Arkansas, all the non-conference teams. Losses: Auburn, Florida, Georgia. SEC Finish: 5-3, 2nd SEC West

The War Eagles have a good number of questions to answer themselves, but I think on balance it’s a toss up on talent and schedule with LSU, and as things stand on August 24, they’re in a better position come Sept. 20.

I see Auburn building their offensive mojo and pulling their young defense together over the course of the season. I like their chances of stumbling a bit early on, and finishing big, but I like Fonzie’s chances to pull off an upset to end the season. Wins: Mississippi State, LSU, Vandy, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Georgia. Losses: Tennessee, Alabama. SEC Finish: 6-2, 1st SEC West.

My pick to finish third is Alabama. Everybody sees Julio Jones as savior, but not in Fonzie’s world. Nick Saban is too proud to turn to a freshman and too demanding to put up with a lot of freshman mistakes. I think that means Jones won’t be a hero until later in the season if at all, but more significantly it’s a problem for Saban’s young defense. “Young” is never good in Saban’s complex and demanding set of schemes, and it’ll show. Maybe next year, but 2008 will be a challenge for the Tide. Wins: Arkansas, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Auburn. Losses: Georgia, Tennessee, LSU. SEC Finish: 5-3, 3rd SEC West.

Next is Mississippi State, which I won’t say much about except 8-5 is darn good for y’all! Wins: Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Arkansas, Ole Miss. Losses: Auburn, LSU, Tennessee, Alabama. SEC Finish: 4-4, 4th SEC West.

Then it’s Ole Miss, who will not be good. Wins: Vanderbilt, Arkansas. Losses: Florida, South Carolina, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State. SEC Finish: 2-6, 5th SEC West.

Pains me to predict an SEC win for Arkansas and their new jackass coach. Wins: Kentucky. Losses: Alabama, Florida, Auburn, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Mississippi State, LSU. SEC Finish: 1-7, 6th SEC West.

Of course, nothing ever plays out as anybody predicts, and there will surely be upsets along the way, better finishes than predicted and maybe a collapse by a favorite. But this is my view at the moment.

In the SEC Championship Game, I see a one-loss Florida team (the highest-ranked one-loss team, having lost early against Tennessee) … blowing their shot and losing to Auburn.

Georgia is No. 1. Georgia will win the BCS Title. Knowshon Moreno is the next Herschel Walker. Mark Richt is God. You know, I’m sorry. I don’t buy it.

I never bought the “BCS is in the bag” nonsense, because you simply cannot look past the Dawgs’ schedule. At South Carolina, at Arizona State, Alabama and Tennessee at home, at LSU the week before the annual Georgia Loses To Florida game, then at Kentucky and at Auburn before finishing with Georgia Tech and the SEC Championship Game. If they pull off a one-loss regular season, I’ll be very impressed. If they make it to the SEC title game in a position to go to the BCS title game and beat LSU, Auburn or Alabama again (or beat them after losing earlier in the year), I just might stop making fun of their coach and his inspirational gimmicks.

But they won’t.

And ignoring the schedule difficulties for a second, I’m still trying to figure out what has everybody so over-the-top excited about the 2008 Bulldogs. Yeah, they should be good. Big deal. Half of the SEC is good.

Everybody’s talking about Moreno’s fantastic freshman season and projecting a monster sophomore campaign leading the Dawgs to glory. Let’s just step back a bit and I’ll tell you a story about a boy named Justin. As a freshman in 2003, Justin Vincent played key roles in LSU’s SEC Championship Game and BCS Championship Game victories (named MVP of both) while rolling up more than 1,000 yards and averaging 6.5 yards per carry. An amazing season, which was followed by 322 yards rushing in 2004, 488 in 2005 and 210 to close out his career in 2006.

Last season, Knowshon rolled up more than 1,300 yards rushing, averaging 5.4 yards per carry (1.1 yards per less than Vincent in his freshman season). And, of course, it only gets better from here, right?

In other words, settle down about Knowshon. He may well be the next Herschel, but there’s a reason people still talk about the “next Herschel” - guys like him don’t come around very often.

Then there’s QB Matthew Stafford, who commanded Georgia’s 83rd-ranked passing offense and finished the season ranked 56th in passing efficiency. Oh, and the Dawgs’ No. 1 receiver last season won’t be back this year. This is exciting … why?

So I guess Knowshon better have a great year … running the ball behind a line that’s now having to replace three of five starters with the injury to Trinton Sturdivant and managed to only finish the season with the 37th-best rushing offense last year.

Georgia brings back 9 of 11 starters on defense, so they’ll lean heavily on those guys - who finished 2007 No. 14 in total defense and No. 18 in scoring defense.

Quick review, then. Georgia finished 2007 No. 74 in total offense, No. 34 in scoring offense, No. 14 in total defense and No. 18 in scoring defense (74/34/14/18 in shorthand). National Champion LSU was 26/11/3/17 (with both scoring offense and defense warped by the two 3OT games). The year before (2006), LSU was 11/9/3/4.

My strange shorthand aside, the gist of the situation is this - Georgia did not play at a national champion level in 2007. This season they will have to perform better than last season against a tougher schedule … while replacing half their starters on offense and with a almost intact but only “really good” defensive unit returning.

I just don’t see it.

Georgia could be in an LSU-like position to be the top-ranked two-loss team this season, but no team can count on the fluke of a finish that elevated LSU in 2007. Just another Sugar Bowl appearance would be a great outcome for Georgia this year. I could see three losses easily, and I think the potential exists for an implosion that leaves the Dawgs at 7-4, though I don’t think that’s likely.

And, though you wouldn’t know it from all the coverage Georgia is getting, there are actually a couple of other talented teams in the SEC East. Remember last year when Georgia should have gone to the BCS title game? One of the reasons they didn’t was they lost to SEC East Champion Tennessee and didn’t even make the SEC title game.

The Vols somehow managed to work their way to a 10-win season and the SEC title game without being very good at all (playing an extra regular-season game helped get to 10 wins). The offense? Poor. The defense? Horrid. A masterfully-paced schedule with a good SEC West draw helped the Vols over-achieve last season, but this year they have to face Florida in Knoxville a week before traveling to Auburn and later have to go back-to-back-to-back-to-back with Georgia, Mississippi State, Alabama and South Carolina. I actually like Tennessee’s new QB - Jonathan “Straight Outta” Crompton after watching him in person against LSU two years ago, but repeating as SEC East champs will be little more than a dream for the Vols this season.

In Gainesville, Tim Tebow may have won the Heisman, but the Gators lost three SEC games and found themselves looking up at Georgia and Tennessee in the SEC East standings. That had to be tough for what was easily the most talented team in the division. But the Gators were too young on defense and got in too many Tebow-led shootouts. The defense is still a question mark, with almost the whole D-line to be replaced and nobody special in the secondary, but look for Urban Meyer to be more deliberate on offense to avoid giving his opponents too many chances on offense. Think of the strategy Les Miles employed against Florida rolled out by Meyer because all QBs will look like Tebow against his guys.

South Carolina - I don’t buy ‘em. It’s a lost cause, Mr. Spurrier.

Kentucky - I’m going on the assumption that I can go back to ignoring them.

Vanderbilt - I’m pretty sure I can continue ignoring them.

So, then, what happens?

I like Florida. The Gators have a lot more talent than Tennessee and a better schedule, and they have a lot better schedule than Georgia. Georgia may be more talented than Florida on balance, but I’ll take the power of Tebow minus the defensive question marks plus the easier schedule in this battle.

And, of course, a lot will be riding on the Florida/Georgia game Nov. 1. I picked Georgia to win the game last year (and Tennessee to win the division - really!) because of schedule pacing, and I’ll call it for Florida again this season for the same reason. The four weeks leading up to Jacksonville look like this:

- Florida: at Arkansas / LSU / OPEN DATE / Kentucky
- Georgia: OPEN DATE / Tennessee / Vanderbilt / at LSU

Clear advantage to Florida there. So I like the Gators to take that game and the SEC East, and for the Gators to finish the conference schedule 7-1.

Next time - LSU and the SEC West

Time to start putting the noggin’ and the Wordpress to work focusing on college football. And the first focus this season will be taking a look at the “expert” predictions and pre-season rankings run through the Wisdom filter.

I came up with the following Top 10 ranking based on the average placement for each team on the six most prominent national pre-pre-season ranking lists: Athlon, Lindy’s, Phil Steele, Sporting News, Rivals and Sports Illustrated plus the pre-season rankings in the Coaches Poll and Associated Press Poll. During the season, of course, the AP Poll is meaningless. But it’s a data point for pre-season expectations.

So, averaging things out, we get:

1. Ohio State
2. Georgia
3. USC
4. Oklahoma
5. Florida
6. Missouri
7. LSU
8. Clemson
9. West Virginia
10. Auburn

Ranking philosophies vary, with some services ranking based on talent and others based on predicted results. Georgia, for example, got No. 1 rankings in both polls, two No. 1 rankings from services that lean toward talent and a No. 5 and No. 9 ranking from services that lean toward expected results. And the No. 1 composite ranking of Ohio State shows how a talented team in a pitiful conference jumps to the top of the list. Nobody thinks they can screw up.

And it’s on that note that we can begin with my own view. I won’t be number-ranking teams, just looking at each team’s prospects and opining on whether I see them finishing higher, lower or about the same as their composite pre-pre-season ranking.

1. Ohio State - The Buckeyes’ 2008 conference schedule is identical to 2007, they’ve got three powder-puff teams (Youngstown State, Ohio and Troy) to play again this season, and they play a team from the Pac-10. Last year, that Pac-10 game was Washington at home. This year it’s at USC. If Ohio State gets past USC in week 3 and Wisconsin in week 6, it’s clear sailing until weeks 11 (at Illinois) and 12 (Michigan). The Buckeyes have lost one regular-season game in the past two years - I think they lose another one this year. Their ultimate ranking will depend on whether other teams finish undefeated, but I think the Buckeyes are the most likely team to end up No. 1 at the end of the year. SAME

2. Georgia - Can the talent match the hype and endure the schedule? It won’t be easy for Georgia. Early in the season it’s at South Carolina, then at Arizona State, then hosting Alabama, then an off week, then hosting Tennessee. The Bulldogs get a one-week breather with Vandy before playing at LSU, then against Florida, then at Kentucky, then at Auburn. Brutal. I don’t see them finishing this high. LOWER

3. USC - The Trojans’ schedule is heavily front-loaded, with only Cal representing any kind of threat after USC’s Oct. 11 game against Arizona State. The fairly young Trojans have to get past Ohio State, Oregon and Arizona State, plus survive trips to Virgina and Oregon State to get into coast mode, however. Another Pac-10 title and another BCS Championship Game miss seems about right for USC this season. SAME

4. Oklahoma - The Sooners remind me a lot of Georgia; they have a lot of talent coming back and are led by a young QB and dynamic young tailback. The difference is Oklahoma doesn’t have to play Florida, LSU, Auburn, Tennessee and Arizona State. They avoid Missouri during the regular season and get Texas, Kansas and Texas Tech at home. Lots of talent, a relatively weak Big 12 and avoiding the best team in the North should equal success. HIGHER

5. Florida - The talent on the field and the coaching power on the sideline should help the Gators avoid a three-loss SEC campaign again this season. And it doesn’t hurt that the Gators traded Auburn for Arkansas in the West rotation. HIGHER

6. Missouri - I’m not a believer in Missouri. They were overrated last year based on success with a weak schedule, and that’s what they will benefit from again this season. Their only significant challenges are opening against Illinois, going to Texas and ending the season against Kansas (if you believe in Kansas). Still, I think they fall apart. LOWER

7. LSU - You’re not going to see me talking up the Tigers before the season this year. There’s just too much unsettled with the QB position, and I’m not about to start making BCS predictions when it looks like the JV Harvard quarterback will be our season starter. He could well be Matt Mauck, which would be great. But I imagine Leslie is very happy to have three soft games to open the season to help figure things out. I’m in that camp as well. A better assessment will come before Auburn. But it’s a testament to LSU’s breadth of strength that the Tigers are still getting top-10 pre-season rankings without a quarterback that’s taken meaningful snaps in college. And I’d agree with that. SAME

8. Clemson - I suppose the Tigers are the best pick to swell up and fill the void left by Boston College and Virginia Tech losing all of their firepower (in the case of Boston College - it was just that one guy). I don’t know that they excite me that much. Clemson lost almost its entire offensive line, and someday Miami and Florida State are going to roar back to prominence. Clemson avoids Miami this year, but gets Florida State later in the season when the ‘Noles will have more of their players back from jail academic suspension. Plus the Tigers have to get past Alabama to open the season and South Carolina to close it. LOWER

9. West Virginia - I’ve also never been much of a Mountaineers fan, and I normally project them to finish high because of a weak schedule. And, thankfully, they tend to blow their chances anyway. The biggest test this season will be at Auburn, which is a much tougher task than W.V. is used to. I think they lose two games, maybe three. So I could see them being at the bottom of the top 10. SAME

10. Auburn - The lesser Tigers have brought in a “spread offense”, which should perform markedly better than the “no offense” approach they took last season. How that will come together and how effective it will be remain to be seen. Urban Meyer sure had a tough time when he first brought his offense to the SEC, so these things can take time. But like LSU, Auburn has three fairly easy warm-ups (except their third game is against Mississippi State, not a total patsy) before the Tiger/Tiger showdown Sept. 20. Whichever team has their offense more together on that day will go a long way in determining what happens in the SEC West. This is also a tough prediction to make right now, but ultimately 10 seems about right. SAME

So I like Oklahoma and Florida to do better than predicted; Georgia, Missouri and Clemson to do worse. The rest of the top 10 seems about where I would project those teams to finish. Outside of those in the aggregate top 10, I like these teams to potentially climb:

- Texas. Not a huge surprise, as the Longhorns are No. 10 in the Coaches Poll. Back-to-back games against Oklahoma and Missouri mark the middle of the season, and by November we’ll know of the ‘horns are more a No. 5 team or a No. 25.

- Arizona State. A team on the rise that will face a huge test with Georgia, Cal, Oregon, USC and Oregon State in the space of seven weeks. I don’t see them going 5-0 in that stretch, but 4-1 isn’t out of the question, and if the Sun Devils can win three of these and not lose outside of this stretch, they’ll finish up with a top-10 ranking.

- Virginia Tech. Lots of losses on the defensive side means very low expectations for a team that won 11 games and the ACC title in 2007. They certainly have the potential to be better than expected.

- Tennessee. I don’t feel real strongly about the Vols, but a few breaks here and there could put Tennessee back near the top of the SEC East. Among UGA, Florida and Tennessee, two are very likely to finish in the top 10. It’s mostly likely UGA and Florida, but don’t count defending East champion Tennessee out to surprise people again.

The AJC (sometime recently) ran a photo gallery of the field trip to a swimming pool organized by UGA coach Mark Richt (sometime recently) in lieu of practice for his No. 1 - ranked Bulldogs!

Judging from this photo of UGA starting QB Matthew Stafford, I’m starting to doubt the Dawgs’ prospect for a BCS title this season:

Stafford - taped and ready!

I mean, if the boy has to have both of his ankles taped just to go swimming, how’s he going to hold up to an entire season of being chased by SEC defenses? It’s a far cry from his days of power-lifting kegs at Talladega. And nice touch, Coach Richt, on the black shorts. I bet the boys thought they were going swimming in the traditional red … until right before they took the field pool.

Apparently today is the day when ESPN rolls out the full-time edition of College Football Live for the season. So my long-dormant DVR timer for it fired off at 6 p.m. Eastern, and what do I get? F*cking Brent Musburger hosting???? Please, God, don’t let this be.

Musburger is the guy who makes me turn off LSU TV audio and listen to Jim Hawthorne incorrectly calling the game on a 10-second delay. That’s how much I hate Brent Musburger. He’s as old as Keith Jackson with none of the charm and the little “snappy” Dick Vitale announcing style he added a few years ago is beyond intolerable. I don’t know if I can watch a season of College Football Live if he’s the host.

What’s more - CFL has apparently added some central-casting young hottie (named Molly Qerim) to anchor the “interactive” portions of the show. And, of course, taking on the expense of bimbo care and feeding means they’ve got to expand the stupid fan “involvement” in the show. So now it’s not just pointless video clips from drunken fans, now we’re going to have things like a March Madness-style fan-vote “bracket” to determine the coolest helmets in college football. I’m not making that up.

ESPN, you had the best thing going with CFL - daily, in-depth coverage of college football all season long. But if this is what you’ve decided to turn CFL in to, I’ll have one less must-see show on my DVR.

Boo.