LSU / SEC Week 11 Picks

After its week in the spotlight, LSU takes a backseat to the real action in the SEC this week. There’s really not much that needs to be said about playing La. Tech, except that answers to the health of Jordan Jefferson and Charles Scott’s backups will be answered.

LSU 45 – 13

Elsewhere in the SEC:

No. 1 Florida at South Carolina. A few weeks ago this game looked like a potential stumbling block for Florida. The Cocks were 5-1 and showing signs of life. Then SC failed badly at Alabama, barely got past Vandy and got blown out in back-to-back games at Tennessee and Arkansas. Yes, anything can happen on the road in the SEC, but there’s no logical analysis that can be put here to predict a South Carolina win.

Gators 27 – 10

No. 2 Alabama at Mississippi State. As with Florida / USC, this game doesn’t favor a Bama loss in any way. The shining point for the Bulldogs is their rush offense, so good luck with that against Alabama. If the Tide falters, it would likely come from pressing the passing game to break out of that particular funk. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see Fonzie order a more aggressive attack early in this one, like he did last week against LSU. There would have to be a pretty spectacular failure by Bama to keep MSU in this one.

Bama 28 – 14

Tennessee at Ole Miss. A pretty big game for both the Vols and the Rebels. The winner of this one has a great shot at an 8-win season, which obviously would be a bigger deal to the rebuilding Vols than the under-achieving Rebels. Despite the arrest this week of Tennessee’s freshmen class, I think the Vols have more momentum, more to play for and maybe even more talent.

Tennessee 34 – 27

Auburn at Georgia. I don’t think the Dawgs have the offense to fully exploit the weak Auburn defense, and the War Eagles have the firepower to take advantage of a UGA defense that’s giving up an average of 30 points per game in SEC competition.

Auburn 41 – 31

Kentucky at Vanderbilt. Remember early in the season when LSU’s 23-9 win over Vandy was considered to be a great performance? Oh, right, the ‘Dores are 2-8 now and 0-6 in the conference. The numbers are fun on this one. Vandy is 41st nationally in rush offense, 111 in pass offense and 101 in rush defense. Kentucky is 22 in rush offense, 108 in pass offense and 102 in rush defense. Neither team may pass in this one.

Kentucky 16 – 9

Troy at Arkansas. Tempted to go with the big upset here, as Troy averages 315 yards of pass offense (against weak competition) and Arkansas is No. 116 in pass defense. But Troy is No. 106 in pass defense going against the No. 12 pass offense in the nation. Should Ryan Mallett have an epic meltdown, Troy could stay in this one. But it would be a little nuts to predict that.

Arkansas 56 – 48

Also, I failed to round up the rest of the SEC action last week. I was 7-1 for the week (missed Ark. / SC). For the season I’m now 65-9.

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