Cap’n Ken’s Homespun Wisdom

As I said in the wrap-up from last week, I think No. 9 LSU needs to use the Tulane game as a final tune-up for Alabama a week from now. Call that “looking past”, but it’s more about taking advantage of a situation to continue working on pressing needs.

Tulane is not good. They stand 95th in total offense and 96th in total defense playing a very weak schedule. Defensively the Tigers need to make sure they understand the Greenies’ game, but offensively this needs to be a directed practice of the concepts we’ll employ against the Tide.

If LSU ends up showing a strong passing game and can run the ball inside, I’ll end up feeling pretty good about the Bama game. The passing should happen, but I’m not so sure about the running. But if you can’t succeed with it against Tulane, it should really inform your game against Bama. So we’ll see.

LSU 34 – 10

Elsewhere in the SEC:

Georgia vs. No. 1 Florida. If there’s a spot for hope in this year’s game for UGA, it’s that the Dawgs’ biggest weakness is pass defense, and pass offense is Florida’s problem spot. But if Tebow has been unspectacular throwing the ball this season, meeting up with the squad that made Jonathan Crompton look great might just be what he needs to get rolling again. I think it’s clear that talent and past performance favors the Gators, but if Florida is really on a downswing and UGA had a good open date week of preparations, there could be a surprise in this game. Or the Gators could wake up and make this a blowout. I’m not predicting either of those, though.

Gators 23 – 20

No. 25 Ole Miss at Auburn. A real pivot game for the Rebels and War Eagles. Ole Miss is all but out of the SEC West race after coming in to the season with so much hype. Auburn is trying to salvage what looked for a while like a dream season for its new regime. If Auburn wins, they pull Ole Miss back to their three-loss level in the middle of the West pack. An Ole Miss win would separate the Rebels from the back half of the division and at least keep their season respectable. The big matchup question is Ole Miss’ not-great rush defense (60th) against the only part of the Auburn offense that seems to still work a little bit. I’m going to go with Auburn’s run game here.

Auburn 27 – 24

No. 22 South Carolina at Tennessee. Until last week, when Tennessee took Alabama to the end and South Carolina barely got past Vandy, I would have taken the Cocks here. Yes, Vandy only scored a field goal on offense, but South Carolina showed a disturbing lack of finishing in that game (431 yards of offense, no turnovers … and 14 points?).

Tennessee 15 – 13

Mississippi State at Kentucky. I’ll go with the Bulldogs’ ground game over Kentucky’s lack of a rush defense.

MSU 20 – 17

No. 11 Georgia Tech at Vandy. I pity the Vandy defense.

Ga. Tech 45 – 17

Eastern Michigan at Arkansas. This is the 0-7 Directional Michigan school.

Hogs 63 – 10

I’m trying hard to avoid feeling really good about No. 9 LSU after the thorough spanking the Tigers put on Auburn last Saturday. As I mentioned before, this is a deeply-flawed Auburn team. But while the 31-10 win over the War Eagles wasn’t some landmark victory for LSU, that game and others set up an intriguing context for the SEC West homestretch.

The two key things in the LSU / Auburn game were that the defense played to scale (if Kentucky holds them to 315 yards and 14 points, LSU holding them to 193 yards and 10 points is very good) and the offense broke loose (for the most part). There has to either be better production by LSU’s hammers (Charles Scott averaging two yards a carry won’t cut it) or a more imaginative ground game (i.e. Russell Shepard) for the Tigers to finish this season strong, but the passing game opening up was a very positive development. We will need Auburn-game numbers from Jordan Jefferson (21 for 31, 242 yards, 2 TDs) and our receivers to move the ball and open up the ground game going forward.

So we got exactly what we need to see on defense and about 70% of what we need to see on offense. Hopefully we’ll see more offensive tuning this week against Tulane.

But the other encouraging developments for LSU took place away from Baton Rouge on Saturday. Alabama’s struggles against Tennessee should be a huge motivational lift for the Tigers (and, unfortunately, Fonzie and the Tide), Arkansas showed itself to be very containable and Ole Miss finally got some offense, but against a horrible Arkansas defense.

In short, the SEC West is winnable for LSU. I don’t think I would have believed that a few weeks ago. Obviously Alabama will be a challenge, and we’ll need some kind of running game to win that one. It’s too much faith to put in the LSU staff to assume that will happen, but it’s possible. And, clearly, LSU can beat Ole Miss and Arkansas. I’ll stop short of saying a win over Alabama should be expected, but we should expect a competitive game at least.

Somebody asked me this week if LSU will look past Tulane in preparing for the Bama game. They say it shouldn’t be that way, but I think the Tigers will view the Greenies game as a scrimmage to prepare for Fonzie & Co. Offensively, we need to work more kinks out. The gameplan for Tulane should be one that aims at Alabama preparation. We’re talking about a 2-5 team that just fell to Southern Miss 43-6, after all. If the Tigers need to specifically focus on how to beat the Greenies, we’re in trouble. I think we’ll see a lot of Charles Scott and the offensive line working on run schemes, and more of Jefferson throwing deep.

Elsewhere in the SEC:

The only game I missed was Arkansas / Ole Miss. Give the Rebels credit for stopping the Mallett offense and finally breaking out their passing game.

Not much else needs to be said about Alabama / Tennessee. Clearly Bama is beatable, but I would have preferred a Tide blowout instead of the motivational lesson handed to Fonzie by the near-loss. Couple that with an open date this week and Bama is probably going to be better prepared for LSU than if they had beaten the Vols by 28.

Mississippi State made Tim Tebow cry (I have to assume that’s why he ran away from the media after the game) and has the Gators questioning themselves. That was fun and makes this week’s Florida / Georgia game a good one to watch. If Florida is to break out of the funk, what better opponent than Georgia? Or if the Gators are to fail, what better opponent to do it than Georgia?

For the week: 5-1; for the season 51-8.

The Tigers are back in action (if you can call it that) against the War Eagles of East Alabama Male College this Saturday. LSU stands at 5-1 on a one-game losing streak; Auburn at 5-2 on a two-game losing streak. But there is a giant perception gap between the two teams. LSU has a human poll average of 9.5, while Auburn is considered the 39th best team by the human pollsters.

So the question going in to this weekend is: Where do perception and reality cross with these teams? It’s a question I struggle with.

On body of work, LSU has a single win over a non-patsy team with a winning record (4-3 Georgia). Auburn also has just one (5-1 West Virginia, which itself has a questionable resume this season). On stats, LSU has a very poor offense (112th in total offense) and a decent defense (35th in total defense) while Auburn has a very good offense (No. 8 ) and a poor defense (No. 72).

LSU lost to No. 1 Florida in a game that reflects its character (no offense, decent defense – though thoroughly gamed by Urban Meyer) while Auburn lost to Arkansas and Kentucky (both 3-3) in games where their offensive production diminished greatly. And that’s a trend that started against Tennessee. Going in to Knoxville, Auburn was averaging 526 yards and 45 points per game. But in the three games since, Auburn’s production had dropped by 143 yards and 24 points per game. And the big problem is in the passing game. Before the Tennessee game, Chris Todd had just one game where he threw for fewer than 250 yards (against MSU, when Auburn ran for 390 yards). Since then he has thrown for 235 yards (UT), 133 yards (Ark) and 95 yards (UK). His sole TD pass against Tennessee was his last of the season after tossing 12 in the first four games.

Could it be the return of Todd’s “dead arm”? I wouldn’t call it live at this point.

LSU, on the other hand, has been a fairly consistent, unspectacular team. Leaving aside the Florida game for the moment, LSU’s offense operated in a pretty right range through its first five games. The low yardage total was 263 against MSU and the high was 368 against Georgia. There’s a consistent balance between rush / pass yards (except for the MSU game) and a scoring range in each game between 20 and 31. There may not be much to like about the LSU offense, but there’s at least an identity.

Until the Florida game, of course. But I think it’s important to understand Florida’s defense (No. 2 nationally in total defense) is simply much better than LSU’s offense. The Tigers certainly could have done more in that game, but the stats there aren’t too concerning as a trend. Come Nov. 7 at Bama (No. 1 total defense), it’ll be a concern, but not this week.

Defensively, after being burned for 478 yards by Washington and holding Vandy to 210, LSU has also operated in a tight range. The best showing was against USL (272 yards) and the worst against MSU (374 yards). Nobody has put 200 rushing yards or 250 passing yards on the Tigers since the Washington opener, so there’s a measure of consistency there.

So what’s the reality? I think it’s this (right now): LSU is a decent team that is missing some key elements. Surely not the No. 9.5 team in the country, but that identity is apparent. Auburn, on the other hand, has become something of late that doesn’t resemble the team that started 5-0. It seems that they have themselves a quarterback problem again, and that weakness exposes the known problems on defense.

Might Chris Todd return to early-season form? Maybe. But given his “dead arm” history, recent performance and what I saw in the Kentucky game, I’m not going to count on it. At the least, LSU needs to make him prove himself. Focus on the run, give Todd some opportunities to hit single-covered receivers if he can. Maybe he does that and LSU digs itself a hole. But that’s clearly where LSU needs to be defensively.

After the Florida game, I think it’s a given that LSU will open up the offense. OK, “a given” is too much faith to put in Leslie & Co., but I would hope that’s the case. A return of the mysteriously-absent Russell Shepard, getting Jordan Jefferson out of the pocket and – God I hope – no more Jefferson running the “option”.

Once again I’m projecting a prediction on what I think LSU should do in the game. Sometimes that works, sometimes it doesn’t.

LSU 28 – 17

Elsewhere in the SEC:

Tennessee at No. 2 Alabama. I expect to see the Florida Crompton (11-19, 93 yards, 2 INT) rather than the Georgia Crompton (20-27, 310 yards, 1 INT, 4 TD) in this game. Tennessee might be able to keep Bama’s run game in check (Vols are No. 31 in rush defense), but they don’t have the horses to overcome Fonzie’s defense.

Alabama 17 – 10

No. 1 Florida at Mississippi State. MSU isn’t quite as bad as their record indicates (3-4 with wins only over Jackson State, Vandy and Middle Tennessee). They’ve averaged 26 points in their four losses (Auburn, LSU, Georgia Tech, Houston), so they can move the ball. But they gave up an average of 38 points in those games. Should the offensive brownout at Florida continue, might the Bulldogs have a chance? A slight one, perhaps. But Meyer and Tebow are too good at game management to let that happen.

Gators 38 – 26

Arkansas at Ole Miss. If ever there was a chance for Ole Miss to regain some respectability, it’s this game. The Rebels have shown absolutely nothing to like this season. Amazing stat: It looks good that Ole Miss held UAB to 121 yards passing until you see that the Blazers got 23 – yes, 23 – passing yards against Southern Miss. And 74 against Texas A&M. Sorry, I can’t buy the defensive stats of the Rebels (No. 23 in total defense), and their offense shows no reason to like them.

Arkansas 48 – 20

Vanderbilt at South Carolina. As a running team, Vandy has an advantage of not needing to worry much about the Cocks’ stout pass defense. But outside of their patsies, Vandy is averaging 8.4 a games and has zero wins.

Cocks 28 – 9

LA-Monroe at Kentucky. Patsy game alert!

Kentucky 35 – 13

P.S. I forgot to do a weekly wrap up last week (I blame the LSU open date). I was 5-1 for the week; 46-7 for the season.

I just finished watching the home-TV version of the LSU / Florida game (as opposed to the on-campus TV version I watched Saturday night), and a lot became clear that I didn’t really gather on the first watching.

The first watching, it’s fair to say, wasn’t a very attentive one. There was the fact that it came after a long day of tailgating (the best part of the trip), the fact that the TV we were watching on was getting a satellite feed while another TV near us was over-the-air (and about 8 seconds ahead), the fact that me and another guy tried to switch ours to over-the-air and screwed that up badly (pissing off a guy named Big John pretty seriously), the fact that much of the rest of the first half was spent talking to a Baton Rouge Police sergeant (not called by Big John – an old friend) and the fact that we tried to go sneak into the stadium at halftime and missed the start of the third quarter. So another watching was clearly in order.

And here’s what I saw:

- LSU’s offense is inept. Purely and completely. I think it’s partly the coaching, partly the play calling and partly the problems of Jordan Jefferson. It’s easy to just go down the list and see problems. Offensive line: can’t protect the pass well and can’t create a run game at all. On the telecast, Gary Danielson said Les Miles told him this is the most physical and best offensive line he’s had. I’m not sure how smart Miles is, but I would at least expect to old Michigan lineman to know offensive lines. So what’s wrong? Play calling: LSU’s sole scoring drive, and the only one that went for more than 31 yards (aided by 35 yards in penalties), was the only one that showed any life at all. Brandon LaFell caught a 26-yard pass that looked good; and represented 27% of LSU’s passing offense. Otherwise, it’s all a big WTF? If I make it to another LSU game this season and they run that ridiculous “option” sweep, I’m going to come out of the stands and charge the field. I’ll do that because a) it will have driven me insane and b) I think I’d have a pretty good chance of getting to the ball before as the play develops. Quarterback – Jefferson again crumbled like a Dixie cup in the second half. I think Joe Namath would do better escaping a pass rush in the pocket … today.

- LSU’s defense is getting a lot more credit than it deserves. The Tigers held Florida to its lowest rushing total of the season (193 yards) and its lowest score (13). But it was clear in watching the game again that Urban Meyer played the Tigers just as he planned to. The Gators controlled the ball for 36:30, their biggest time-of-possession advantage of the season. Florida ran four more plays, put up 168 more yards and scored 28 more points against Kentucky in 32:03. Meyer wanted to control the clock and thought he could pound the middle of LSU’s line to do so. And he was right. I don’t think it was lost on Meyer that this was LSU’s winning game plan in 2007. LSU held the ball 35:52 in that game. Had LSU stopped Florida’s dive plays, I imagine Meyer would have opened up the offense and asked Tebow to carry more of the load. He didn’t need to. It was a brilliant game plan in a contest where Florida didn’t need to show the world a blowout.

- I do love our defensive speed. As witnessed by Perry Riley and Chad Jones chasing down Brandon James on 4th-and-2, the speed of LSU’s secondary and linebackers is impressive and fun to watch. And it reinforced the wisdom of Meyer running inside, not trying to rely on a speed advantage outside.

- Coaching head-scratcher of the week. It was mentioned several times that Florida’s center (one of the Pouncey twins, but I’m not sure if it’s Ma or Pa Pouncey) was signaling to the line by jerking his head before the snap, which helps overcome crowd noise. Danielson said it’s something he’s seen on tape and he’s sure LSU coaches have seen it as well. He gives Miles & Co. too much credit. It took five offsides penalties before LSU’s coaches apparently reacted to it. With just over five minutes left in the second quarter, Tracy Wolfson reported that John Chavis had instructed his line to charge into Pouncey the next time he did it, draw the false start penalty and end that nonsense. I can’t imagine she would make that up, but Pouncey continued doing it for the rest of the quarter without getting bull-rushed. Then on the opening play of the second half, Rahim Alem made a point to work the crowd noise, Pouncey jerked his head and he was charged into. On that play the ball was snapped too quickly to draw the penalty, so LSU did it again on the next play, the penalty was called and Pouncey didn’t jerk his head again all game. Several problems there. First, the LSU coaches obviously were not aware before the game that he would do it and that the smart move would be to charge him. I would not be surprised at all if they learned this via headset from somebody watching the telecast. Secondly, I guess Chavis’ line just ignored him when he finally mentioned it in the second quarter? And finally, it was comically obvious that stopping it was a huge priority to start the second half, which just reinforces how ridiculous it was that it wasn’t recognized and stopped early in the game.

In the end, I really don’t think LSU was anywhere close to winning this game despite being within a touchdown for the first 52 minutes of the game. Meyer knew what he was doing, and he was in control the whole game. LSU managed 52 yards of offense on one drive (26 on one play) and otherwise had nothing. And it was clear early on that the Gators would own the middle rush.

With Auburn, Alabama, Ole Miss and Arkansas ahead (yes, I’m going to stupidly assume wins over Tulane and La. Tech), there’s a good chance for another LSU implosion this season. A 7-5 finish, unfortunately, is not out of the question. I sure wouldn’t say this team looks better than Miles’ 2008 squad.

Elsewhere in the SEC:

Bama beat Ole Miss in sufficiently-convincing fashion. The Tide offense has come down a bit of late (303 yards per game against Kentucky / Ole Miss vs. 461 per game against Va. Tech / Arkansas), but Fonzie had his guys rolling right along.

Arkansas did, in fact, deflate the Auburn balloon. Turns out giving up 500 yards can come back to bite you sometimes. I shouldn’t have believed in the War Eagles.

I picked the Vols to beat the group of guys who used to play football for Georgia, but 310 yards for Crompton? Yow. Seeing that score was the point on Saturday where I knew LSU was going to lose.

South Carolina beat Kentucky, as I guessed. Second-tier SEC East teams we don’t play; not much interest beyond that.

I missed the call on MSU / Houston. But 490 yards of offense looks good for the Bulldogs, until you see they gave up 553.

Vandy lost to Army in overtime. But LSU beat Vandy, too!

For the week: 3-3; for the season: 41-7.