Cap'n Ken's Homespun Wisdom

Typically, I put up a number of posts about my impressions and predictions for college football in general, the SEC East, the SEC West and LSU in the weeks leading up to the season. Obviously that shant be the case this year. So as the days peel away before the season kicks off Thursday, I’ll at least ponder some big-picture things in this year’s landscape.

The Global Outlook: Pre-season poll politics can have a tremendous effect on how the BCS plays out, so I always like to look at out-of-the-gate positioning and what that suggests for teams at the top. Of course, things don’t always play out as you would expect. The now-classic example is West Virginia in 2007. A No. 6 ranking to start the year helped them weather their first loss, and they were set to play in the BCS Championship Game if they could just get past Pitt. They didn’t, of course, and LSU fans thank them for that.

But starting positions can matter a great deal, so it’s worth looking at and projecting.

At the tip-top, of course, is Florida. But let’s put aside the SEC teams (Gators, Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss and Georgia) in the Top 15 for a second, as ours is a conference where a team making the BCSCG will have proven itself on the field. Ditto the Big 12 South teams (Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State) in the Top 15.

So the futures to focus on are No. 4 USC, No. 6 Ohio State, No. 7 Virginia Tech, No. 8 Penn State, No. 12 California, No. 14 Oregon and No. 15 Georgia Tech.

USC, Cal and Oregon will, of course, play each other in the Pac 10. Should any one of those teams go undefeated, they would end up in a good position to be in BCSCG consideration. USC, of course, has the inside track and is the most likely to go undefeated in the conference, but the Trojans also have the hardest out-of-conference schedule, playing at Ohio State and at Notre Dame. Cal has the easiest schedule, playing Maryland, Eastern Washington and Minnesota out of conference and getting USC at home. Oregon pulls Boise State, Purdue and Utah out of conference and hosts both USC and Cal in Eugene. Let’s say Cal beats Oregon Sept. 26, USC beats Cal Oct. 3, Oregon beats USC Oct. 31 and all three win their other games. That would make for an interesting scenario. In the end, of course, USC will beat everybody except Oregon State or Stanford and want to be in the BCSCG.

In all likelihood, the Sept. 12 USC / Ohio State game eliminates the loser from BCSCG consideration. It’s doubtful the winner will go on to lose two of their other games, so head-to-head politics would dictate things there.

Virginia Tech, of course, faces No. 5 Alabama to start the season. The winner of that game will be sitting pretty, but clearly Va. Tech has the easier road afterward. Should they beat Bama, they will have little excuse for not making the BCSCG. And the loser would have a very hard time passing up the winner again since both conferences have championship games. If a No. 4 Alabama beat a No. 1 Florida in the SEC title game, I wouldn’t see them passing a No. 3 Va. Tech to get in the BCSCG. No. 15 Ga. Tech would have to have a near-perfect season and get past Va. Tech and the ACC title game to have a shot at clawing their way up. Not likely.

And then there’s Penn State. Everybody’s Grandpa starts the season at No. 9 and has exactly two ranked teams (Ohio State and No. 21 Iowa) on his schedule. And, of course, there’s no messy conference championship game to play. The old man is sitting pretty to coast through the likes of Akron, Syracuse, Temple, Eastern Illinois, Northwestern and Indiana and rise to the top. Come November 7, we’re likely to see a one-loss Ohio State playing at an undefeated Penn State. The winner of that game stands a good chance of making the BCSCG (should USC drop another game in Ohio State’s case). Pathetic that this can be so easily projected.

My prediction for BCSCG participants – USC and Penn State. I don’t think either of those teams will be among the two best this season, but BCS politics favor them. Again, things don’t tend to work out as you expect, but I have a hard time predicting near-perfection for the top dogs of the SEC or Big 12, which is what’s required to overcome the advantage of weakness others enjoy.

So on to the SEC.

In the East, it’s hard to pick anybody but Florida. Defending champs returning their entire defense and The Child; just hard to argue with. So I’m picking the Gators to be in Atlanta. Unbeaten? Possibly. Their schedule works out real well this season – they get Tennessee at home after two patsy games; they have a week off before LSU; they get Mississippi State the week before Georgia; they skip Alabama and Ole Miss and they have a patsy tune-up before hosting Florida State. Things fall well for them.

If there’s a team in the East that might challenge, I’d pick Georgia. I don’t envy the Dawgs’ schedule – seven straight weeks against Oklahoma State, South Carolina, Arkansas, Arizona State, LSU, Tennessee and Vandy before they get a week off before the Florida game – but even if they fall to OSU in week one, I think they have the potential to go in to the Florida game undefeated in the SEC. If they go into Jacksonville with no more than one SEC loss, that game will be for the SEC East (at least in the Dawgs’ minds) and to topple the Tebownator. Georgia represents the best chance for a division’s second-best team to be in the SEC title game. A two-loss UGA playing in Atlanta while a higher-ranked one-loss Florida watches – that would be fun.

Tennessee? Whatever the Vols shall be will be crystal clear after UCLA on Sept. 12 and Florida Sept. 19. I don’t expect a dramatic turn. Kentucky? Maybe an upset here and there. South Carolina? Not buying it. Vandy? Please.

And then there’s the SEC West, which is obviously the thing I’m really interested in. Depending on who you ask, this is Alabama’s or Ole Miss’ race to lose, with LSU understandably a bit of a shaky prospect coming off an 8-5 season.

First things first – I don’t buy the powerhouse Ole Miss argument. Yes, yes, they beat Florida and inspired a plaque. Sure, they rolled Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl. Blanked MSU 45 – 0 … beat LSU badly … came within 4 of Alabama … sure, sure sure. Is Ole Miss better now with Snead and Nutt? Absolutely. Are they in the top half of the SEC West? Most likely. Could they win the division? Maybe so. But they are squarely in “prove it” mode, so I’ll wait for them to do that. We can assume, I guess, that they get by Memphis, USL, South Carolina and Vandy before meeting Bama Oct. 10. And unless you believe Arkansas or Auburn will be formidable, they should roll through to Tennessee on Nov. 14 then LSU on Nov. 21. Win two of those three and I’ll be impressed. But that’s a long way off. I’m not picking Ole Miss to win the SEC West.

Maybe Auburn or Arkansas could spring a surprise year and make the race interesting, but I’m not betting on that either. I’ll mention Mississippi State. There.

So I’m looking at Alabama and LSU. Granted, LSU would be among the “looking at” teams even if I were picking us third. But I’m not.

After the Virginia Tech opener, Bama should not see a challenge until the Ole Miss game. Not insignificantly, that game is the same day as LSU / Florida. Beat Ole Miss and the Tide should only see challenges from Tennessee (it’s a rivalry – never discount it), LSU and Auburn (see: rivalry). But if Bama is really a national contender, they should only be challenged by Va. Tech, Ole Miss and LSU. There’s no Florida; no Georgia to face before Atlanta.

The Tide should be stout on defense; untested on offense. But that suits Nick Saban’s game – dominate on defense; manage the game on offense. Last year showed Fonzie has Bama where he wants the team to be. I don’t expect any back-sliding.

LSU, of course, faces both Florida and Georgia during the season. But Washington is no Virginia Tech, so the Tigers should be able to ease into the beefy middle of the schedule against UW, Vandy, USL and Mississippi State. Anything less than a 4-0 start would be very concerning. Facing Georgia on the road and Florida at home in consecutive weeks already concerns me. Beyond that, the Alabama game comes Nov. 7 and Ole Miss Nov. 21 – both on the road. It’s not a favorable schedule draw.

That’s the rough-sketch setup. I buy Alabama as a powerhouse; Ole Miss not so much. And I think beyond week one, Alabama has a much more favorable path than LSU.

What, then, do I think about this LSU team? That’s the toughest part of this exercise.

I’m cautiously optimistic about the offense. Our opening set of games should give the team time to come together, Jordan Jefferson has enough tools (i.e. feet) to avoid becoming Jarrett Lee should he have rocky patches, Charles Scott is a rock to lean on and hopefully Gary Crowton has learned a bit more about managing young quarterbacks. Will I feel comfortable with the offense going into the Georgia game? Time will tell.

Defensively, I’m cautiously nervous. Yes, John Chavis will be a huge improvement over not having a defensive coordinator, but we’re talking about a massive change in both personnel and scheme. I worry about a really rough transition. Assuming Chavis is the answer on the sideline, how well this unit executes and how quickly the gameplan comes together is a concern. Hopefully the first four games won’t present enough of a challenge for the defense to screw it up should there be issues. The slow ramp-up to Georgia and Florida will be the defense’s best friend. But I want to see low numbers in yards and points to get comfortable with the LSU defense again.

As always, I see pre-season predictions as semi-educated guesses. Games must be played before much is really known. And I don’t look back on my pre-season predictions when I evaluate individual games. In other words, don’t hold me to this …

I see LSU finishing this season 9-3, second place in the SEC West. Losses to Georgia, Florida and either Alabama or Ole Miss (with a win over the other). I expect much better execution than last season and much less frustration. But in the end, I think LSU is a step behind the SEC’s best and not far enough along to win two out of three tough road games.

SEC Championship Game: Alabama vs. Florida. The winner will be in a position to go to the BSCCG. And my pick for SEC Champion – Florida.

Now on to the season.