Cap’n Ken’s Homespun Wisdom

Ah, humans. So cute, so logical. So in control of the BCS rankings because computers can’t be trusted.

We got the first Harris Poll of the season this week. You know the Harris, it’s that one made up of such luminaries as Dick Bestwick, Rondo Fehlberg and Jim Vruggink that represents 33% of the BCS rankings and stays oh-so-above pre-conceived notions of “good” by waiting until the fourth week of the season to release its rankings.

So let’s look at what this pure method of unbiased evaluation has produced relative to the USA Today Coaches Poll (another 33% of the BCS formula) and, for kicks, that meaningless poll from the Associated Press that inexplicably remains the poll the media uses when displaying team rankings.

The Harris Poll has Florida ranked No. 1. So do the Coaches and the AP.

The Harris Poll has Texas ranked No. 2. So do the Coaches and the AP.

The Harris Poll has Alabama ranked No. 3. So do the Coaches and the AP.

The Harris Poll has LSU ranked No. 4. So do the Coaches and the AP.

The Harris Poll has Boise State ranked No. 5. So do the Coaches and the AP.

The Harris Poll has Virginia Tech ranked No. 6. So do the Coaches and the AP.

The Harris Poll has USC ranked No. 7. So do the Coaches and the AP.

The Harris Poll has Ohio State ranked No. 8. The Coaches and the AP have Oklahoma ranked No. 8.

The Harris Poll has Oklahoma ranked No. 9. The Coaches and the AP have Ohio State ranked No. 9.

The Harris Poll has Cincinnati ranked No. 10. So does the AP. The Coaches have TCU ranked No. 10.

Need you any further proof that the pre-conceived notions reflected in the Coaches and AP polls released before any games are played are absolutely freaking correct?? I mean, the Harris Poll doesn’t factor in pre-season opinions and their voters spit out an almost-identical Top 10 four weeks in! In fact, the human-voting system is so accurate that the exact same 25 teams in the Harris Poll are also in the Coaches top 25 and 24 of the Harris teams are in the AP top 25 (Harris likes Missouri; AP Georgia Tech – they have Missouri 26).

So whether you make assumptions before any balls are touched or wait until four weeks into the season, it’s clear that 3-1 Penn State, with wins over Akron, Syracuse and Temple and a loss to Iowa is a top-15 team (Harris 12, Coaches 13, AP 15) while 4-0 Auburn with wins over Louisiana Tech, Mississippi State, West Virginia and Ball State (and boasting the nation’s No. 3 scoring and total offense) isn’t quite a top-25 team (Harris 26, Coaches 28, AP 27). That really makes no sense to me, but apparently I’m completely wrong. Objective human voting backs up those pre-conceived notions, after all.

Thank you, Chad Jones. Not just for saving LSU’s butts with your punt return TD and goal-line defense to preserve the Tigers’ win, but for giving me something to remember about this game that doesn’t make me want to slit my wrists.

I wish I could say I don’t remember being this frustrated watching LSU football. But, you know, there was Arkansas, Ole Miss, Troy, Alabama, Georgia and Florida just last year … It was ugly. Mississippi State was giving up 161 yards per game on the ground going in to this game. Even if you cancel out the bad punt attempt and intentional safety, LSU got 67. Keiland Williams averaged 2.2 yards per carry; Charles Scott 2.5. We gave up 374 yards to a team that managed just 341 against Vandy.

Without MSU’s four turnovers this game is lost. But we all know this. LSU is where LSU is going in to Georgia and Florida. I really see no point in looking back now. But I will say there are things that give me hope for the Georgia game, which I’ll get into later in the week.

Elsewhere in the SEC:

Ole Miss flamed out in a manner so spectacular that it is not to be believed. That was good to see, and I’m glad I didn’t give them any benefit of the doubt and picked South Carolina. That Ole Miss (2-1) was only dropped to No. 18 while South Carolina (3-1) remains unranked is a severe lack of justice.

Alabama shut down Arkansas in a major way, which has to make Georgia fans nervous. The game played out in the extreme of what I figured – Fonzie’s defense made the one-dimensional Hogs offense look silly.

Tim Tebow got his head cracked, and I hear Florida also won the game. Tebow’s status for our game Oct. 10 isn’t known, and it’s a hard thing to celebrate or regret. Obviously it would be an easier game for LSU if Tebow’s out, but I’d rather face their best than a second-teamer. But at the same time I would hate to see Tebow rushed back in for his own sake. Mock the Chosen One all we want, he’s a hell of a college player and apparently a good kid. I’d rather he not be concussed and get beaten up by LSU.

I called for a high-scoring game for Georgia against Arizona State, but we got something far different. Again, it’s something that informs my final view on LSU / Georgia this week. But the Dawgs were lucky to get out with this one.

Auburn made things interesting against Ball State, but ultimately threw down 560 yards of offense and 54 points. They pass the offensive test and will be interesting to watch in the next few weeks against Tennessee, Arkansas and Kentucky.

Vols, Vandy … blah blah blah.

For the week: 8-1; for the season 31-4.

I’m celebrating this week, because it may be the last time until Halloween that I feel somewhat comfortable in picking LSU to win. Simply put, I can’t project greatness for this team based upon past performance. Maybe things will improve. I certainly hope so, because this isn’t a team I’m comfortable with right now.

But let’s forget our troubles this week and focus on Mississippi State. Of course this is a winnable game for No. 7 LSU. The Tigers’ ugly offense should be able to pound through a Bulldog defense that gave up 390 rushing yards and 6.6 yards per carry to Auburn. If LSU can’t, well this team’s troubles are deep.

Statistically, however, these teams are pretty comparable. LSU has produced 325 yards and 28.3 points per game against Washington, Vandy and USL. MSU has produced 349 yards and 28 points per game against Jackson State, Auburn and Vandy. Defensively, the Tigers have given up 320 yards and 11.7 points per game; the Bulldogs 313 yards and 19.7 points (including 49 points vs. Auburn). Call it a bias, but I have to figure this LSU team coming off of 8-5 and two years removed from a national championship is better than this MSU team coming off 4-8 and installing a new coaching staff.

And that’s pretty much what I have to go on – the assumption that LSU is a better team. They certainly haven’t given us much to demonstrate that through the first three games.

LSU 19 – 15

Elsewhere in the SEC:

No. 5 Ole Miss at South Carolina. The Thursday SEC abomination. A quick aside – it’s an absolute joke that Ole Miss is ranked No. 5 having played only Memphis and Southeastern Louisiana. The Rebels started the season at an inflated No. 10 and have moved up through attrition. Meanwhile No. 13 Miami began the season as No. 31 and have beaten Florida State and Georgia Tech. No thinking brain on the planet would put Ole Miss’ body of work to this point ahead of Miami’s. But be that as it may, it’s the Nutt and Cocks show (sorry) on Thursday night in South Carolina. I can’t put rational analysis against what Ole Miss has done this year, so I’m going to go with the flu, a somewhat desperate Spurrier, lack of trial for the Rebels, home-field advantage and Thursday Night Madness.

Cocks 38 – 35

Arkansas at No. 3 Alabama. A pass-happy, one-dimensional team with no defense against Fonzie. I’m betting on Bama to be able to slow down or stop the Hogs’ offense and to be effective moving the ball and scoring.

Bama 31 – 24

No. 1 Florida at Kentucky. Angry, angry Gators. How dare you doubt the Chosen One? Barring a bigger funk than showed itself against Tennessee, Florida will regain its footing against the ‘Cats.

Gators 48 – 20

Arizona State at No. 17 Georgia. There’s not a lot to go on with Arizona State. Wins over Idaho State and UL-Monroe don’t mean much. I guess we can assume Georgia does have a potent passing attack, and at some point they might get a running game. Their defense should be able to outlast whatever the Sun Devils bring.

Dawgs 45 – 31

Ball State at Auburn. War Eagles are gonna cut it loose in advance of their trips to Tennessee and Arkansas. They need a nice blowout to cap their 4-0 start.

Auburn 59 – 6

Ohio at Tennessee. Ah, it’s like the old days, when Western Kentucky came to town. Turn Crompton loose!

Vols 48 – 10

Vanderbilt at Rice. Bringing the ‘Dores back to .500!

Vandy 24 – 10

I’m quickly growing tired of the “we’ll come along” line about LSU football.

Bad defense against Washington? It’ll come around. And they say it came around with a “great” effort against Vanderbilt, holding the ‘Dores to 210 yards of offense. Yeah, and Vandy managed just 157 yards of offense against Mississippi State this week. Oh, and it was awesome how Washington beat USC with the Huskies gaining 185 fewer yards and scoring seven fewer points in their win over the Trogans than in their loss to LSU. Idaho held Washington to 104 fewer yards than the Tigers gave them.

So giving up 272 yards to USL is supposed to feel good? Yeah, the goal line stand was awesome – it would be great if the Cajuns would have just run into the big pile of larger guys on every play. And the Tigers held USL to 14 fewer yards than they gained against 1-2 Kansas State.

I don’t buy it. LSU is sitting at No. 9 in the SEC in total defense. And this against no teams that rank in the top 50 nationally in total offense. This is not to say LSU is doomed on defense, but we aren’t where we need to be come Oct. 3 and beyond. Any thinking Tiger fan would be concerned about what we’ve seen so far. The defensive line needs to step up, close down the rush and gets some pressure on the quarterback. That, rather than pass defense, feels like the problem this year.

And the picture is more concerning on offense. I think I know why we haven’t seen Jordan Jefferson throw deep until last night – he’s not hitting guys long. But the USL game was a good time to figure that out. We don’t need the long ball to be successful, but we do need a ground game. We averaged just 4.5 yards per carry against the Cajuns, and the outside run game that saved us against Vandy and UW was gone. Keiland Williams averaged 7.3 yards per carry against the Huskies and 7.2 against the ‘Dores. He got more touches Saturday night against the weakest rush defense we’ve faced and his average dropped to 4.3 yards per carry.

Right now, nothing is working particularly well offensively. LSU is dead last in the SEC in total offense and 90th in the nation. We dropped 330 yards and 31 points on USL. Alabama dropped 523 yards and 53 points on North Texas. Kansas State and Southern both put more yards on USL than LSU did. Mississippi State put more yards on Vandy than LSU did. Idaho and USC put more yards on Washington than LSU did. There is just nothing good to say about LSU’s offense right now.

So one more relatively easy game and then these Tigers have to get serious. There’s not much I’m seeing that gives me a good feeling about October.

Elsewhere in the SEC:

I was pretty amazed at the joy expressed by Tennessee fans for not feeling embarrassed coming out of the Florida loss. A loss was a given, I guess, so anything short of looking foolish must have felt good. But I don’t like seeing that from a program the caliber of Tennessee. It was one thing to see Washington fans all full of pride for putting up a competitive game. But they were 0-12 last year. Have a little more program pride, Vols fans. Yes, I predicted a Florida blowout.

Apparently Georgia signed a secret pact to join the Big 12 when they were out in Oklahoma. All of a sudden they’re a big-throwing team with no defense. It wasn’t entirely surprising that this game became a shootout, and I give the Dawgs credit for coming out on top as I guessed they would.

On the flipside of the Tennessee attitude, I understand Auburn fans being really happy to win a game over West Virginia they probably should have lost. No, this isn’t the “great” West Virginia, but it’s still a quality non-conference win in a year when the War Eagles really need to get some wins and get off to a good start. Whether Vol fans will be happy with a feel-good loss to Auburn in two weeks remains to be seen.

I’ve talked enough about Vandy, but obviously the ‘Dores losing to Mississippi State doesn’t make LSU’s win feel that great. They played like Vandy of old, and I bought the idea that they might be something more. Silly me.

Good win for Kentucky. Expected wins by Bama, South Carolina and Ole Miss. Amazing that Ole Miss is sitting at No. 5 in the poll (and No. 4 in the one that doesn’t matter) having played absolutely nobody.

For the week: 8-1; for the season 23-4

They say we should respect or perhaps even fear USL this week, as the Cajuns are 2-0 and beat a “BCS conference” team last week. Sorry to say, Tiger fans, but if Saturday’s game is anything but a patsy blowout, No. 7T LSU is in trouble.

I’m not ready to call the Tigers’ start a bad one. Opening the season at Washington and following up with an SEC home opener against a supposedly not-horrible Vandy is unusual. We’re 2-0 this season with a combined score of 54-32, which is being viewed poorly. Last year after two games we were 2-0 with a combined score of 82-16 … beating Appy State and North Texas. And Florida is 2-0 this year with a combined score of 118-9 … beating Charleston Southern and Troy. So we can’t view this season’s starts solely by points scored and points allowed. However, loyal Tiger fans will recall 2007, when we opened 2-0 with wins over Mississippi State on the road and Virginia Tech at home … by a combined score of 93-7.

That season is the measuring stick of “damn strong” LSU teams. Clearly we are not there. But there are mitigating factors – the ghost of Jarrett Lee being the biggest one – that would make it a wise move to bring these Tigers along deliberately and carefully. If, of course, that’s what’s happening.

But now is the time to put the spurs to this team. I want to see a lot more this week than we’ve been shown so far. The USL game and Mississippi State next week are the final tune-ups for Georgia, Florida and Auburn (yes, we have to mention the Auburn game now) in October. Blowing out the Cajuns is not just good for team and fan morale, it’s an indicator of likely performance against real SEC competition. In our 2003 national championship season, our patsy games averaged a score of 44-8. In 2007, it was 45-6. Last season, it was 39-14.

And about those Cajuns – let’s not kid ourselves. They beat Southern and a Kansas State team that had a hard time with UMass. And against Kansas state USL managed just 287 yards of total offense and gave up 377 yards. LSU should easily hold them under 200 yards and throw down 450+ on them. Rain or no, this one needs to be ugly.

LSU 48 – 6

Elsewhere in the SEC:

Tennessee at No. 1 Florida. It’s too bad for Gator fans that the Vols couldn’t keep up the appearances of being a good team against UCLA. Maybe that loss and familiar Tennessee problems were anomalies, but we’ll know for sure come Saturday. Florida will be out for blood; the Vols will do well to keep it close.

Gators 52 – 10

West Virginia at Auburn. This game could swing Auburn into the “we’re back” category, swing the Big East back toward legitimacy or end up as something hideous that leaves no questions answered. The War Eagles have to be feeling good – they passed the test against La. Tech and threw a beating down on Mississippi State in their SEC opener. And they are ranked No. 4 in the country in total offense. Beating up on West Virginia would keep their momentum rolling through at least the Tennessee game. But I don’t know that it’ll really prove all that much. We’ll have to see how MSU looks in a couple of weeks, etc. before Auburn’s new offense can really be gauged. But I think things fall their way here.

Auburn 35 – 24

Mississippi State at Vanderbilt. Along with USC at Washington, this is the game Tiger fans will watch this week to see how good we should feel about ourselves. A Vandy win here would make our win over the ‘Dores feel OK. A blowout by MSU and things will be uncomfortable. I’m going with program experience, the home field and confidence on this one.

Vandy 24 – 20

No. 20 Georgia at Arkansas. They say it’s a “trap game” for the Bulldogs. And it could well be. Arkansas has played just one game, a patsy win in which they ran up 591 yards of offense. So I really don’t know what to make of them. Georgia, on the other hand, could be viewed as weak based on their Oklahoma State loss or strong in outlasting South Carolina. But I can’t overlook the Dawgs No. 98 ranking in scoring defense (influenced, of course, by the lack of patsies). If Arkansas’ offense is for real, Georgia could be in trouble on the road. But I don’t feel confident making that assumption. I’m going with trial-by-fire experience here.

Georgia 42 – 38

Louisville at Kentucky. I got nothing here, except that Rick Pitino is an exemplary husband and father.

Kentucky 35 – 10

North Texas at No. 4 Alabama. Our patsy games are the only ones that shall draw deep analysis.

Bama 45 – 13

Florida Atlantic at South Carolina. FAU lost to Nebraska 49-3.

Cocks 48 – 7

Southeastern Louisiana at Mississippi. Wow, SLU has a football team? And they throw a lot and have the No. 4 total offense in I-AA. Good to know.

Ole Miss 52 – 13

There are a couple of ways one could view LSU’s 23 – 9 win over Vandy on Saturday night. The cynical view would be that the Tigers under-performed against a weaker SEC team at home, and that portends bad things down the road. The believer’s view would be that the Tigers shut down an under-rated offense, held off a spunky SEC up-and-comer and didn’t fold in the face of a tough battle in tough conditions.

And I think the truth lies somewhere in between. Offensively, the Tigers were pretty conservative, but ultimately efficient enough to get the job done. I can’t really fault the coaches for not opening up the passing game on a rainy night with a young quarterback. It would have been comforting to see Jordan Jefferson have a 300-yard game or something, but if the strategy is to build this offense up slowly over our first four games (the easier ones), I’m fine with that. We saw a little bit from Russell Shepard, who learned about SEC hits and fumbles, Reuben Randle got more game experience – but still hasn’t been thrown to – and R.J. Jackson caught six passes on the night. The offense isn’t putting up big numbers (326 total yards on the night), but there are a lot of guys getting experience in the game. It would feel better to be putting up 40+ points, but I think the strategy is smart.

Defensively, the numbers weren’t bad even if the Tigers didn’t seem dominant. Just 210 total yards given up, 122 on the ground. If you buy Vandy as a legitimate offense, that’s not horrible. But there were still moments of confusion and missed assignments. We’ll see whether that gets fixed like one would expect, or lingers and becomes the team’s big problem like last year.

I get the feeling, though, that the mass exodus of fans in the middle of the game had as much to do with the memories of 2008 as the rain. And I can understand that. Right now I would not call LSU a serious contender for the SEC West, much less the conference title. But we’ll see where the team is come Oct. 3 in Athens.

Elsewhere in the SEC:

The Cocks and Dawgs running up 78 points, 956 yards of total offense and 735 in passing yards was, to say the least, a surprise. This one will take a bit of time to digest. Georgia gets Arkansas and then Arizona State in the next two weeks, so we’ll see if yesterday or the opening loss to Oklahoma State is the character of this team. Same for South Carolina. This game’s results and both teams’ openers does not compute.

Tennessee managed just 208 yards of offense against UCLA after throwing down 657 yards in their patsy opener. And despite holding the Bruins to 186 yards, the Vols didn’t have enough juice to close the deal. Pretty surprising turnaround, and not a good sign as the Vols head down to take on Florida this week. I had picked Tennessee here, but clearly they weren’t up to the task.

And then there’s Auburn putting up 49 points and 589 yards against Mississippi State after throwing 556 yards down against La. Tech. It’s too early in the season to mean much, but the War Eagles are ranked No. 4 nationally in total offense. Yeah, that’s a pretty big surprise and a strong start. If Auburn and Mississippi State are supposed to represent the middle or bottom of the SEC West, clearly Auburn is well ahead of MSU this season.

Alabama and Florida were playing the patsies this week and performed as expected. Not much to learn from either game.

For the week: 5-1; for the season 15-3