Cap’n Ken’s Homespun Wisdom

November 28, 2008

SEC Week 14 Predictions

Filed under: College Football, LSU Football — Cap'n Ken @ 1:42 pm

Just under the wire …

The 4-7 Razorbacks concern me for one reason – passing. No. 22 in the country and No. 2 in the SEC in pass offense against LSU’s No. 76 in the country / No. 11 in the SEC pass defense. But the good news is that Arkansas has the SEC’s worst defense and their biggest weakness is rush defense. This one might be another game nobody on LSU’s side will want to remember, but I have to think it’s winnable.

LSU 31 – 28

Elsewhere in the SEC:

Mississippi State at Ole Miss: The other Friday matchup shouldn’t be much of a challenge for the Rebels. If Nutt can close out his first season 8-4, he’ll have done a hell of a job up in Oxford.

Rebels 38 – 24

Auburn at No. 1 Alabama: Oh what a day it would be for War Eagle fans if Auburn were to wake up from its season-long sleep and rise up against Fonzie and the Tide. If ever there were a moment for an Iron Bowl shocker, this would be it. And I wouldn’t be too surprised if the unexpected happened – I just don’t expect it, obviously.

Bama 24 – 13

No. 4 Florida at No. 20 Florida State: The Gators also face a final challenge before the SEC Championship Game showdown with Alabama. It’s certainly possible that Florida hits a roadblock with the Seminoles, who have come on strong late in the season. Another one that should be good to watch, but I don’t see anything that suggests a Florida loss.

Gators 42 – 28

No. 22 Georgia Tech at No. 11 Georgia: I don’t see the Tech gimmick offense cracking UGA’s defense, especially in Athens.

Dawgs 34 – 27

South Carolina at Clemson: Eh, I’ll go with the Cocks.

South Carolina 27 – 24

Kentucky at Tennessee: The last hurrah for Phil Fulmer. I figure they can win this one for him.

Vols 19 – 16

Vanderbilt at Wake Forest: Battle of the 6-5 smart-kids schools. I’ll homer it up and root for a winning season for Vandy.

‘Dores 13 – 10

November 25, 2008

SEC Week 13 Recap

Filed under: College Football, LSU Football, Les Miles — Tags: , — Cap'n Ken @ 9:41 pm

Do I want to say much more about LSU getting their cocks handed to them by Ole Miss? Not really. And I’d really appreciate my DVR ignoring future replays of the game on that CBS College Sports channel.

But the upside of this total collapse by the Tigers is that others are starting to question the program and Leslie’s decisions. Most gratifying is that many people are starting to think eliminating the position of defensive coordinator wasn’t such a smart move by Miles. That this is gaining traction six weeks after I went on and on about it is a positive thing. That people are saying Miles must sack the non-coordinators for an actual defensive coordinator next season is even better news.

So I won’t say any more about the Ole Miss loss. It was embarrassing and clearly should have been avoidable 11 games into the season with the talent of LSU. And I had picked LSU to win, which should be a lesson for me.

Elsewhere in the SEC:

I picked both Tennessee and Arkansas to win. Stupid, stupid man.

And my score prediction for Florida / The Citadel was a half-joking 116 – 8. Had Tebow & Co. stayed in for more than 40% of the game, 70 – 19 could easily have been 150 – 6.

For the week: 1 – 3
For the season: 65 – 13

November 22, 2008

Ole Miss humiliates LSU – the big questions

Filed under: College Football, LSU Football, Les Miles — Cap'n Ken @ 10:38 pm

I can take a loss. They happen. I can also take a disappointing season – they also happen. But what I have a hard time accepting is stupidity.

It’s becoming clear that LSU is full of stupidity, and I think it’s on the sideline. There are three big questions that come to mind following LSU’s embarrassing 31-13 loss to Ole Miss:

1) Where in the living hell is LSU’s pass defense? Credit Jevon Snead for three outstanding throws on one Ole Miss touchdown march, but drive after drive in this game was peppered with the same unbelievably bad pass coverage LSU has exhibited all throughout this season. Yeah, I’m pretty sure I know the answer to this question – it’s because Les Miles eliminated the position of defensive coordinator. How long does it take for the “young” defense, as the popular excuse theorizes, to actually start playing pass coverage? You can’t blame youth and inexperience 11 games in to the season.

2) Why has Jarrett Lee remained LSU’s starting quarterback? I had given Leslie & Co. the benefit of the doubt – surely Jordan Jefferson just isn’t ready to run the pass offense – but it was clear today that Jefferson is at least as capable and steady as Lee. Based on Jefferson’s performance after Lee went down, I’m going to say he seems to be much better than Lee in all aspects of the game, but at minimum he is just as good. When Lee threw three interceptions against Georgia, he should have been benched for the Tulane game in favor of Jefferson. Are we to believe that a kid who goes 10 for 20 for 129 yards against Ole Miss today was incapable of leading the team against Tulane three weeks ago? Tulane should have been Jefferson’s tryout for the Alabama game, but it wasn’t. Instead we got four more Lee interceptions against Alabama, an almost-inescapable hole against Troy and no answer to Ole Miss’ offense tonight. Jefferson showed himself to be a capable passer and a powerful threat running the ball. I wonder what LSU’s offense would look like if it had been designed around Jefferson instead of Lee. What Lee has done and what Jefferson clearly seems capable of doing has me seriously doubting Leslie’s mental capacity.

3) Going for it on 4th and 23 from your own 47 yard line down 15 with 8:11 left in the game? Are you shitting me?? It was bad enough when Leslie was deciding to go for it on 4th and 18, but to stick with that plan after a false start penalty is sheer, inexcusable stupidity. Eight freaking minutes left! That ridiculously stupid decision by Miles ended the game, as Ole Miss had to move just 38 yards to get a field goal and put the game out of reach. In what Idiot’s Playbook does that call make sense?

I can take the losses, but I can’t take the stupidity.

November 21, 2008

SEC Week 13 Predictions

Filed under: College Football, LSU Football, Les Miles — Cap'n Ken @ 2:57 pm

Following the “historic” comeback by LSU against Troy – yes, it still was Troy – the Tigers are at a late-season crossroad. With Ole Miss coming to town this week and a trip to Arkansas set for the day after Thanksgiving, LSU has the opportunity to learn from the Troy game and finish strong, or settle back in their old ways and see the season slide into mediocrity.

Know this – Ole Miss is not a pushover. The Rebels could easily be 8-2; their four losses were by an average of 4.75 points; they played No. 1 Alabama to 24-20 in Tuscaloosa and – oh yeah – they beat No.4 Florida in The Swamp. Their win over the Gators is that much more impressive when you consider that no other SEC team has come within three touchdowns of beating Florida.

And last week Ole Miss took care of a patsy 59-0 while rolling up 520 yards of offense. How’d LSU do against its patsy last week?

So what do the Rebels bring to town? A pretty strong ground game (No. 30 nationally), a middle-of-the-road pass game (No. 68), a strong rush defense (No. 13) and a weak pass defense (No. 84). Sound familiar? Ole Miss is like Alabama on offense and Georgia on defense – though not as strong as either of those teams.

What LSU needs to do to beat Ole Miss is play like they’re down 28 with 20 minutes to play. Put yet more faith in Jarrett Lee to throw the ball enough to open up the run – lack of faith in Lee was the main reason LSU was held to three points against Troy mid-way through the third quarter. And defensively shut down the run, pressure the quarterback and make Ole Miss beat you through the air. Faith in your offense; faith in your defense – seems pretty obvious.

If Leslie & Co. play the Ole Miss game like they started out playing Troy, it’ll be yet another long afternoon in Tiger Stadium. I’m going to put faith in the coaching staff that they realize this and won’t let the Tigers dig themselves a hole, and I’ll put just enough faith in Lee to not give the game away.

LSU 31 – 30

Elsewhere in the SEC:

A very slim slate of games is “highlighted” by LSU / Ole Miss, and there’s not much more to get excited about.

Tennessee at Vandy: What the hell – I’ll go ‘Dores

Vandy 17 – 9

Arkansas at Mississippi State: Is there anything to like about this game? Cellar Dweller War!

Hogs 24 – 17

The Citadel at Florida: Oof.

Gators 116 – 8

November 19, 2008

SEC Week 12 Recap

Filed under: College Football, LSU Football — Tags: , — Cap'n Ken @ 12:16 pm

I’ve said all I care to about the LSU / Troy game, but I will note my prediction was 42 – 20. So Troy made it closer than I thought, and obviously things unfolded not like I expected – or as they should have. And it was a different defensive back that scored on Jarrett Lee’s latest gift, not the guy I was expecting it to be.

Elsewhere in the SEC:

Florida’s blowout of South Carolina was really impressive. I looked for more defense from the Cocks and a closer game. But it was South Carolina making the mistakes as I figured. I just thought they could keep things closer.

The surprise in the Georgia / Auburn game was the Dawgs’ ineffective offense. Just 28 more yards and three fewer points than UT-Martin put on the War Eagles? Oof.

Alabama took care of Mississippi State as expected.

Kentucky couldn’t keep the Randall “Not Tex” Cobb momentum going and lost to Vandy. I’d expected more and blew the pick. And it did not escape my notice that the ‘Cats put up 90 more yards and 14 more points on Georgia than they did on Vandy.

And then we have Ole Miss, who dropped 520 yards and 59 points on UL-Monroe while holding the Warhawks scoreless and with just 131 yards of offense. UL-M rang up 341 yards and 27 points on Arkansas earlier this year. That performance is quite noteworthy with the Rebels visiting Baton Rouge Saturday.

For the week: 5 – 1
For the season: 64 – 10

November 16, 2008

LSU comeback on Troy – the Tiger offense

Filed under: College Football, LSU Football, Les Miles — Tags: , , , , — Cap'n Ken @ 7:10 pm

OK, so the last bit I feel compelled to add about the “historic” LSU comeback against Troy is how the Tigers managed to come back from 28 down in the middle of the third quarter. The comeback was remarkable in how unremarkable LSU’s offense was in making it happen.

Yes, Jarrett Lee made some good throws. He also made some bad ones during the comeback. Pretty typical (minus another interception). And Jordan Jefferson delivered a touchdown scramble on fourth down for the Tigers’ first touchdown. But there was really nothing special about the drives – it’s really just what you would have expected the Tigers to do all game against Troy.

The comeback started with 6:24 left in the third. And down 28, LSU consumed 4:58 on their first touchdown drive. The lack of a sense of urgency was remarkable. Either the Tiger coaches felt confident that they had shut Troy down and would get plenty of possessions in the fourth and lots of time to score or they figured the game was lost.

After Jefferson’s run to bring the game to 31-10, Troy managed to run all of 1:08 on their next possession. Lee then engineered his one really good drive (4-for4 with long completions to Tolliver and LaFell) as the Tigers went 86 yards in 1:18. Without that drive, I think the game is done. But Lee came through. Remember, of course, this was Troy – but I give him credit for not folding at that point.

Troy’s next possession lasted all of 1:06 and LSU got the ball back on their own 40. Another four (safe) completions by Lee, a facemask penalty by Troy and a Charles Scott blast near the goalline brought things to 31 – 24 with 10:33 left.

And 58 seconds later, LSU has the ball on Troy’s 13 after Chad Jones’ interception. The Tigers ran off 1:41 before Colt David’s field goal brought things to 31 – 27 with 7:51 left.

On its next possession, Troy ate up a whopping 35 seconds before punting back to LSU. Despite starting from mid-field, Lee couldn’t move the Tigers, and LSU went three-and-out. Of course, Troy touched the punt, giving LSU the ball back at the Troy 21 with 6:26 left. Two screen passes and a good throw to Tolliver got LSU to the 4, and Scott punched it in. The Tigers went ahead with 4:50 left.

And it was all over after that. Troy squandered its chance to get into field goal range, and LSU scored again to finish things out at 40 – 31.

But a couple of things can’t be overlooked. First is that LSU simply ran its regular offense and scored on six of its final seven drives. That should be expected against Troy – it was only remarkable because LSU failed to execute its offense so badly for the first 39 minutes of the game. But, more significantly, Troy absolutely threw the game away with horrible clock management. Up by 17 with 16:26 remaining in the game, the Trojans held the ball an average of 56 seconds on their next four possessions and gained an average of 3.75 yards on each drive.

Notwithstanding the fact that Troy gave up an interception and a punt muff to help the Tigers out, the horrible time management spelled doom for Troy. Running the ball into the line three times on each of those four drives would have eaten up somewhere around nine minutes and likely would have gained more than 15 yards. Instead, Troy consumed less than four minutes and gave LSU a short field with the interception.

Those extra six minutes gave LSU the luxury of time they should not have had. Beyond that, it was play like you should have been playing – easy deal.

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