Getting an early jump on the weekend action, what with Auburn playing Thursday night and me heading down to Baton Rouge Friday morning (Wisdom readers, let me know if you’ll be out at the game – capnken@betrsites.com). And let’s face it, there’s a lot to talk about.
Sure, the showdown with Fonzie next month now appears to be No. 13 LSU’s most important game, but No. 7 Georgia coming to town is a very big deal. The Dawgs have targeted LSU since somehow not being invited to play in the BCS Championship Game last year after finishing second in their division, the two teams haven’t met since the 2005 SEC Championship Game and the loser of this game is out of the BCSCG dance.
So, then, what to expect? I start any analysis of games by looking at past performance. My subjective views picking games are based in understanding recent history.
Here’s where the teams stand eight weeks in to the season:
Georgia – No. 26 nationally in total offense (46th in rushing, 22nd in passing), No. 35 in scoring offense. No. 12 in total defense (3rd in rushing, 66th in passing), No. 27 in scoring defense. Tossing out everybody’s patsy games, they’ve beaten 3-3 South Carolina, 1-3 Arizona State, 1-4 Tennessee and 3-2 Vanderbilt. They lost to 5-0 Alabama.
LSU – No. 40 nationally in total offense (36th in rushing, 51st in passing), No. 38 in scoring offense. No. 24 in total defense (16th in rushing, 51st in passing), No. 44 in scoring defense. Tossing out the patsy games, they’ve beaten 2-3 Auburn, 1-4 Mississippi State and 3-3 South Carolina. They lost to 5-1 Florida.
Both teams’ losses were high on the humiliation scale, so I’ll call 41 – 30 and 51 – 21 more or less a wash in terms of hammering statistical rankings. LSU comes out worse in that comparison, but they earned it.
There is, of course, one common foe – South Carolina. The Cocks put up 289 yards and 7 points on Georgia; 254 yards and 17 points on LSU. Georgia dropped 252 yards and 14 points on the Cocks; LSU put up 363 yards and 24 points.
Beyond the South Carolina comparison, LSU does not fare well in the statistical comparison. Neither team has a really significant win, and both lost to a quality opponent.
Georgia – notably – has been improving on defense, holding three of its last four teams under 250 total yards (Alabama put 324 on them) after giving up 599 yards to two patsies to open the season. LSU’s best defensive performances were against its two patsies to start the season, and the Tigers haven’t held anybody under 250 yards since.
On offense, Georgia has also rung up 400-plus yards in three of its last four games (Alabama, again, the exception) after a lackluster 252 yards put up on South Carolina. LSU cracked the 400-yard mark only once in its last four games – 427 put up on Mississippi State.
There’s a big imbalance there that concerns me. I expect Georgia to have the more powerful offense. But over the entire season and especially of late, the Dawgs outshine the Tigers on both sides of the ball. There’s not a lot of hope offered LSU in the numbers.
More subjectively, it’s important to look at the weaknesses of the two teams. For Georgia’s offense, it’s finishing drives. The Dawgs have scored 25 offensive touchdowns and made 15 field goals. And they have just two non-offensive scores (a punt return and an interception return). The high field goal to touchdown ratio coupled with the Dawgs’ penchant for penalties is why they are No. 26 in total offense but just No. 35 in scoring offense.
Much has been made of Georgia’s young and injured offensive line, but they still allow just 1.14 sacks per game.
For LSU, the offensive weakness is, of course, the quarterbacks. Jarrett Lee shows flashes of competence but remains young and shaky. And Andrew Hatch is Andrew Hatch. Our line protects well (one sack per game) and enables the run, but until our quarterbacks can really open up the offense and get the ball to LaFell, Byrd, etc. downfield, it’s too easy for good defenses to contain the LSU offense.
Defensively, both teams are weak in pass coverage, with Georgia performing worse than LSU there. But Georgia is in a better position to exploit poor coverage with Stafford at the helm.
Put these two teams on the field and have them run the gameplans we’ve been seeing from both, and Georgia wins on Saturday. That’s obvious in the numbers and past performance.
What LSU needs is a radical change in their approach to this game – and a lot of faith in Jarrett Lee.
Like with the brilliant plan put in place against Florida last year (keep the ball away from Tebow at all costs), Miles and Co. need a Georgia-specific plan this weekend. My suggestion is this:
- Georgia will move the ball and they will score points. Chances are Stafford will pick apart LSU’s poor coverage no matter what, so focus on heavy pressure, lots of blitzes and let what happens downfield happen. Don’t let receivers get behind the coverage and keep the Dawgs from getting the long touchdown – force them to execute a red-zone offense if Stafford beats the pressure. Chances are they’ll end up with a field goal or two instead of touchdowns.
- Jarrett Lee has to attack the Dawgs’ weakness, pass coverage. Hard. Trying to be conservative and take pressure off the young quarterback will result in Georgia bottling up the LSU offense. Open it up and air it out. The Tigers have to put faith in Lee to hit his receivers and not make stupid throws.
Yes, I’m calling for a shootout. It goes against LSU’s post-JaMarcus mentality, but it is what’s called for in this game. LSU’s pass coverage won’t stop Stafford, so try to stop him with pressure but expect a big day for the Georgia offense. And that will need to be countered by a big offensive show by LSU. Fortunately, Georgia’s weakness in coverage opens the door for that.
I think LSU’s defense will be up to the challenge, but it would be a lot to ask of Lee. Maybe he’ll have a career day, but I see him falling just short.
Georgia 44 – 42
Yes, I’m projecting not only an outcome, but also a strategy. If LSU tries to run its standard game, this one could look more like the Florida score.
Elsewhere in the SEC:
No. 2 Alabama at Tennessee: The hope for the Vols in this game lies with Bama’s last two games – a four-point win over Ole Miss and a three-point win over Kentucky. There’s nothing in the Vols’ performances this year that would suggest anything they bring to stop Alabama, but could two shaky games at home translate into an upset on the road for the Tide? I think it’s possible, but I’m not banking on it.
Bama 21 – 17
Kentucky at No. 10 Florida: The Wildcats lost their top running back this week to go along with losing their top receiver. Things unravel from here.
Gators 38 – 10
Auburn at West Virginia: West Virginia is the poster child for overrated teams in bad conferences, and I have a hard time picking them to win much of anything. And they’re in a rebuilding year. But Auburn gives me no reason to pick them to win against anybody these days, having lost to Vandy and Arkansas in back-to-back games. But maybe the week off will have helped Tubs pull together some kind of post-Franklin offense.
Auburn 23 – 17
Ole Miss at Arkansas: Houston Nutt coming home to play a bad Arkansas team and talking about how his Rebels could easily be 6-1. He has a lot to prove, and I look for him to do just that.
Ole Miss 31 – 20
Duke at Vanderbilt: The ‘Dores achieve their dream of bowl eligibility against Duke.
Vandy 21 – 20
MTSU at Mississippi State: The Bulldogs lost to a poor WAC team to open the season, but I think they have themselves together enough to not lose to a poor Sun Belt team now.
Mississippi State 28 – 17
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