Cap’n Ken’s Homespun Wisdom

I’ll take the suspense out of this right up front - I’m not picking LSU to win the SEC West. There’s just no way I can at the moment given our quarterback situation. It would appear that the man taking the first snaps of the season will, in fact, be Mr. Andrew Hatch - late of the Harvard junior varsity and a Mormon mission in Chile.

I don’t mean to sound harsh, but Hatch has no business starting a season, much less a game - or getting significant playing time at all - at LSU. He is in this situation only because of the most unlikely of quarterback shortages and - apparently - because Jarrett Lee has a sore back.

It would be a much more concerning situation if Hatch (who doesn’t even have a Scout.com profile if that gives you a sense of the “buzz” around him in high school) had actually beat out the highly-regarded Lee, and part of me wonders if Lee’s “back pain” might be Leslie’s way of keeping an unready Lee out of the opener without tipping his hand that the guy who should be his best QB just isn’t ready to lead the team. That might not be a bad approach, and certainly a better idea than to put him on the field to embarrass himself and open the door for a really big upset.

Fortunately for the Tigers, the season starts with three games that should be winnable using direct snaps to Charles Scott and fake field goals from your own 20 on second down. The problem comes Sept. 20 at Auburn. One would assume the goal is to have a solid, tested, proven quarterback in place by then. If Lee is either not healthy enough to get a whole lot of work in during these first three games or - God forbid - actually not as good as Hatch, LSU is in for a world of pain.

And as it stands, I can’t pick LSU to beat Auburn four weeks from now with Andrew Hatch as our presumptive quarterback. I reserve the right to modify that opinion based on the first three games and ultimately what shakes out at QB, but the Perrilloux Penalty is - I pick Auburn to win the SEC West.

I see LSU finishing 9-3, second in the SEC West. Much of the season’s fortunes will ride on the quarterback position. By the time Oct. 11 rolls around, the Tigers had better have the offense clicking if they are to get past Florida. And I don’t see that happening. I think by that point we’ll be seeing Lee as the starter - possibly only as a bridge to Jordan Jefferson. Auburn will have shown Hatch as inadequate, and Lee will at best be getting fully into the groove come the Florida game. Again, things could change, but I foresee the Tigers not being ready to run with the Gators.

I’m picking Georgia to beat LSU, largely because LSU will be coming off games at Florida and at South Carolina, and Georgia will be coming off games hosting Tennessee and hosting Vandy. If the Tigers have two losses and Mark Richt puts his boys in black underwear or something, I think Georgia can motivate their way into a win there.

But I like the prospect of LSU finishing strong. Given the implosion of Perrilloux and the lack of an experienced quarterback to enter the season, I think 9-3 would be a heck of an accomplishment for Leslie’s damn strong team.

LSU Wins: Mississippi State, South Carolina, Alabama, Ole Miss, Arkansas, all the non-conference teams. Losses: Auburn, Florida, Georgia. SEC Finish: 5-3, 2nd SEC West

The War Eagles have a good number of questions to answer themselves, but I think on balance it’s a toss up on talent and schedule with LSU, and as things stand on August 24, they’re in a better position come Sept. 20.

I see Auburn building their offensive mojo and pulling their young defense together over the course of the season. I like their chances of stumbling a bit early on, and finishing big, but I like Fonzie’s chances to pull off an upset to end the season. Wins: Mississippi State, LSU, Vandy, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Georgia. Losses: Tennessee, Alabama. SEC Finish: 6-2, 1st SEC West.

My pick to finish third is Alabama. Everybody sees Julio Jones as savior, but not in Fonzie’s world. Nick Saban is too proud to turn to a freshman and too demanding to put up with a lot of freshman mistakes. I think that means Jones won’t be a hero until later in the season if at all, but more significantly it’s a problem for Saban’s young defense. “Young” is never good in Saban’s complex and demanding set of schemes, and it’ll show. Maybe next year, but 2008 will be a challenge for the Tide. Wins: Arkansas, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Auburn. Losses: Georgia, Tennessee, LSU. SEC Finish: 5-3, 3rd SEC West.

Next is Mississippi State, which I won’t say much about except 8-5 is darn good for y’all! Wins: Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Arkansas, Ole Miss. Losses: Auburn, LSU, Tennessee, Alabama. SEC Finish: 4-4, 4th SEC West.

Then it’s Ole Miss, who will not be good. Wins: Vanderbilt, Arkansas. Losses: Florida, South Carolina, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State. SEC Finish: 2-6, 5th SEC West.

Pains me to predict an SEC win for Arkansas and their new jackass coach. Wins: Kentucky. Losses: Alabama, Florida, Auburn, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Mississippi State, LSU. SEC Finish: 1-7, 6th SEC West.

Of course, nothing ever plays out as anybody predicts, and there will surely be upsets along the way, better finishes than predicted and maybe a collapse by a favorite. But this is my view at the moment.

In the SEC Championship Game, I see a one-loss Florida team (the highest-ranked one-loss team, having lost early against Tennessee) … blowing their shot and losing to Auburn.

This entry was posted on Sunday, August 24th, 2008 at 11:15 pm and is filed under College Football, LSU Football, Les Miles. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.