Cap’n Ken’s Homespun Wisdom

From last Thursday’s Oregon / Arizona game, a nice poon fight captured in the stands by ESPN. Slowed to 1/15th speed with blow-by-blow account and set to Loretta Lynn & Jack White’s “Portland, Oregon” (Yes, I know the University of Oregon is in some city that’s not Portland - song just works great with the clip):

Les Miles set the record straight at his weekly press luncheon today: - Bo Schembechler is dead. Funeral was a year ago today, in fact.
- Lloyd Carr”s retirement timing is funny.
- Leslie is not talking jobs, not looking for jobs, doesn”t want a job. But he has a great job.

- It”s not “suppose” that Michigan will call. They haven”t called. It”s not fair to say they should.
- What he”s doing is what we should do, which is to “let it rest”.
- He”s playing football for LSU.

- He”s preparing for “ar-KAN-sas”.
- He loves this team (choking back tears) and will not do anything to hurt it.
- He doesn”t want to talk about jobs, doesn”t care about jobs, doesn”t want to involve himself in that thought process, which is counterproductive to preparation. Please don”t ask again.

He”s so on the first flight to Ann Arbor after the BCS title game (or maybe the SEC Championship Game if we lose that). That is, of course, if Michigan wants him.

Everybody”s saying Michigan will look like fools if they pass on Miles and the guy they do hire washes out. But if Michigan has the chance to hire a true Michigan Man who played and coached for Bo, who dearly loves the university and is currently coaching the No. 1 team in the country … and passes … what does that say about Leslie?

Michigan not offering Miles the job is a much scarier thought than us having to find a new coach.

The video:

Who was LSU”s Most Valuable Player yesterday? Bryant Hahnfeldt - Vanderbilt”s kicker. By missing a 49-yard potential game-winner against Tennessee, Hahnfeldt kept alive Tennessee”s hopes for an SEC East title and LSU”s hope to make the BCS Championship Game.

If Hahnfeldt makes that kick, Georgia wins the SEC East and LSU”s chances of winning the SEC Championship drop to between slim and none. LSU beat Ole Miss yesterday - in the final score and in turnovers. But the Rebels out-gained, out-passed, out-protected and out-played the Tigers on well over half of the game”s 132 snaps. If not for five key plays - Ole Miss” fumble near the goal line, an interception in the endzone, two more interceptions and Trindon Holliday”s 98-yard kickoff return for LSU - the Rebels would likely have sent LSU to the trash heap of BCS contenders yesterday.

Just as LSU”s 58-10 win over La. Tech last weekend wasn”t as strong as the score would indicate, this 41-24 win over the worst team in the SEC hardly gives me warm fuzzies about LSU”s chances to win the SEC Championship Game, much less get past Arkansas this Friday.

Thankfully - again - the football world is looking the other direction and not really examining how the Tigers are playing. With Oregon losing Thursday, LSU has become the consensus No. 1 and is exempt from the “who should be No. 2″ questioning. And that”s a good thing, because I sure wouldn”t vote this LSU team No. 1 right now.

Where has the defense gone? The Tigers gave up 466 yards to the Rebels and registered exactly one sack the entire game. When Ole Miss had the ball, the line of scrimmage looked like a barn dance, with LSU”s defensive front rarely getting into the backfield and leaving Schaeffer plenty of time to find open men or scramble out for a nice ground gain.

I hate to agree with Lee Corso, but LSU”s defense has just faded away during the season.

In the first six games of the season, LSU”s defense gave up an average of 9.3 points and 198 yards per game. Teams averaged 3.3 yards per play in this stretch, which included games against the Tigers” two highest-ranked opponents (9-2 Va. Tech and 8-3 Florida).

In the last four games (discounting the 3-OT Kentucky game”s stat-busting nature), LSU”s defense has given up an average of 23 points and 318 yards per game, with opponents averaging 4.6 yards per play. The strongest team in this stretch has been 7-4 Auburn.

To put it bluntly, the defense has gone bad.

Offensively, the Tigers have gotten better late in the season, averaging 42.5 points, 489 yards and 6.9 yards per play in the last four games compared to 37.8 points, 432 yards and 6.0 yards per play for the first six games. And that stands to reason with the softer schedule of late, and clearly it”s the offense that”s been saving LSU”s bacon.

So now there”s Arkansas, horribly inconsistent but carrying the potential to drop 650 yards of offense on an unprepared foe. That”s worrisome, but the offense should be able to bail out the defense this Friday.

More important this week will be what happens Saturday in Lexington. If Kentucky beats Tennessee, Georgia”s new-found offense will run LSU off the field in the SEC Championship Game. LSU”s only hope to make the BCS title game is pulling Tennessee - not the Dawgs - in Atlanta.

… then let”s hope somehow Ohio State rises back to No. 2.

And this defensive collapse has softened my support for Bo Pelini to take over should Leslie head back up to Michigan in the next couple of months. I still think Bo is a strong candidate, but the recent collapse of his defense takes him out of slam-dunk status should we have a vacancy at head coach.

Elsewhere in the SEC:

Alabama lost to UL-Monroe. Man, that”s fun. Just such a good time knowing the “Saban is God” crowd has to swallow that one. And now Alabama has to beat Auburn to avoid a 6-6 season. That makes me happy. And the loss Saturday ensures that Saban”s first year at Alabama will be worse than any year he had at LSU. The man took an LSU team that was 3-8 the year before he arrived and flipped them to 8-4 in his first year. At Bama, they were 6-7 last year … can Fonzie even improve that record this season? Bring back Shula!

Georgia again looked strong in shutting down Kentucky in the second half. Deciding to run the ball and not have Stafford throw (interceptions) was a smart move. And no obvious manufactured motivation required, it seems.

Tennessee nearly lost to Vandy, showing why I desperately want to draw the Vols in the SEC Championship game.

Arkansas isn”t good, but Mississippi State is worse, as expected.

Tebow wins the Heisman.

For the week: 5 - 1

For the season: 71 - 14

Ooh, no … the correct answer is “don”t lose to Arizona.” Sorry, Oregon; but thanks for playing. Here”s the Holiday Bowl as a consolation prize.

More on the BCS picture in a bit, but we”ve got SEC business to settle this weekend. The No. 1-ranked Tigers travel to Oxford to take on 3-7 (0-6 in the SEC) Ole Miss. What you”ll hear about this game is that four of the last five meetings have been close games, so watch out, LSU. Not many people give Ole Miss a chance to win it, but plenty of folks expect a close game.

If that”s the case, it won”t bode well for LSU getting to the BCS Championship Game. The Rebels are last in the SEC in scoring offense and scoring defense. LSU is second in scoring offense and first in scoring defense. There”s less pressure now for LSU to win with style, but this one should be no contest. If it”s a contest, that”ll worry me for Arkansas and the SEC Championship Game.

LSU 42 - 10

Elsewhere in the SEC:

No. 23 Kentucky at No. 9 Georgia - OK, so let”s all see what Mark Richt pulls out of his Inspiration Closet to get the Dawgs past Kentucky and keep hope alive for the SEC Championship Game and / or a BCS bowl. Richt is dangerously close to becoming the Dr. Phil of college football. The key to this game, though, will be Knowshon Moreno, not what color socks Georgia is wearing or what kind of chant they do at midfield before the game. Moreno is averaging 163 yards per game over the last four games and Kentucky has given up an average of 217 rushing yards in their last four games. The “Cats” rush defense can be had, and Moreno seems like the man to have it. Georgia”s weak spot is passing defense, however, which is where Kentucky”s opportunity lies.

But with at least a BCS bowl on the line for Georgia, revenge from last year”s loss to Kentucky and no doubt some awesome motivational scheme in the works by Richt, I like the Dawgs here. UGA 31 - 20

Vanderbilt at No. 20 Tennessee - Vandy is not in a great position to end Tennessee”s SEC East title hopes. The “Dores have a strong defense, but they have no offense to take advantage of the Vols” horrible defense. I wouldn”t be surprised to see Vandy win an ugly game here, but I”ll go Vols. Tennessee 10 - 9

Mississippi State at Arkansas - About as intriguing of a game as you”ll ever see between a pair of 6-4 teams. Sly Croom is clearly on the rise, having scored wins over Alabama, Auburn and Kentucky. Arkansas is the embodiment of chaos, having the guns to drop 542 rushing yards on South Carolina but not able to put anything together against Tennessee. But there”s just not much to love about Mississippi State - last in the SEC in total offense, eighth in total defense. The only thing they really do well is stop the pass, but Arkansas would rather not throw, anyway. Hogs 24 - 13

Alabama and Florida win against their patsies, and Auburn and South Carolina have the week off.

And on the to BCS suppositions.

I have mixed feelings about Ohio State losing to the Zooker last weekend. On the one hand, I”m really happy to see the Buckeyes exposed as the nothing of a team they are, and their loss leaves other teams fighting for No. 2. But on the other hand, college football could have used another embarrassing blowout of Ohio State in a title game to help end the Big Ten”s undeserved perception as a real conference.

But it”s all clear for the moment. If LSU wins out, the Tigers are in. There”s a very strong chance that either Kansas, Missouri or Oklahoma will be in the title game. Barring upsets this week, Kansas and Missouri will play an elimination game next week before likely meeting Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game - assuming Oklahoma does not stumble against Texas Tech or Oklahoma State. So it”s probable that the Big 12 title game will be No. 2 vs. No. 3 (or No. 1 vs. No. 2 if LSU loses to Ole Miss or Arkansas) with the winner going to the BCS title game. It”s still to early to know that is how it will go down, but at most one of those three teams will stay at the top of the BCS rankings, and chances are the winner of the Big 12 will be in BCS title position.

West Virginia is essentially sitting at No. 3 right now, needing some chaos among the Big 12 teams or an LSU loss to make it in. The Mountaineers have to get past Cincinnati and Connecticut (yes, top teams in the Big East) as well as Pittsburgh to keep their hopes alive. A fair requirement, because those are all very winnable games for a serious BCS contender.

Ohio State and Arizona State aren”t out of it yet, as they are essentially the No. 4 and No. 5 teams in the BCS. Ohio State, of course, will play Michigan tomorrow and then disappear from competition while real conferences play two more more games and the Pac-10 plays on conference championship weekend to make people think they have one. If Ohio State beats Michigan tomorrow and Arizona State beats USC and then Arizona, I”d love to see the Sun Devils move ahead of the Buckeyes in the BCS. In any case, both Ohio State and Arizona State need a good bit of help at the top of the standings.

A West Virginia / Arizona State BCS title game is not out of the question, however. The two teams at the top have that pesky extra game to win, and anything can happen there.

So, seven teams are sitting in striking range of a top-two BCS spot. I”d estimate each team”s chances of winning out and remaining in the chase thusly:

- LSU: 70%; 50% if Georgia makes its way into the SEC Championship Game.
- Kansas: 20%
- Missouri: 40%

- Oklahoma: 70%
- West Virginia: 90%
- Ohio State: 40%
- Arizona State: 30%

Put a gun to my head and make me say who”ll play for the title, and I”d say Oklahoma and West Virginia. There”s something just a little shaky about LSU, but I could also see the Tigers running the table - especially if it”s Tennessee we”re playing in the SEC Championship Game.

But imagine this nutty potential scenario:

- Tennessee beats LSU in the SEC Championship Game
- Oklahoma loses one of its two final games, but still goes to the Big 12 Championship Game, where they beat the winner of Kansas / Missouri
- Ohio State loses to Michigan
- Arizona State loses to USC

Each of the above potentialities are reasonable, although all of them happening might be a stretch. But if they do, and depending on where Oregon settles in next week”s BCS, there”s a very slight potential for the current No. 9 BCS team to make their way to No. 2. That team? Georgia. An SEC team making the BCS title game after not even making the conference championship game? That would get the BCS haters talking.

Boy, this one”s coming mighty late. I”ve been working on some new-feature development at EAV Buzz between diaper changes. So where were we? Oh yeah, Ohio State showed itself to be the weak Big 10 team we all knew they were, and LSU is No. 1 again. Hurrah.

It”s a good thing the La. Tech game wasn”t on real TV and that Oregon had the weekend off, because the Tigers” win was hardly as strong as 58-10 would suggest. Not a bad win, really, and the final score looked good. But had there been an easy comparison between this LSU win and a good Oregon win, the Tigers might be the ones really hoping Kansas loses along the way.

As it stands, though, LSU is squarely in the driver”s seat should the Tigers make it through the SEC Championship Game unscathed. One would hope Ole Miss is not much of a challenge, and god knows what to expect with Arkansas.

Elsewhere in the SEC:

Not a good week for my picks, as Auburn, Alabama and Arkansas all went down. Bad week to pick the “A” teams.

Mark Richt beat Auburn by having his players and fans wear black, I hear. I”m not sure if he thinks the Dawgs can beat Kentucky just on talent, but if not here are some “motivational” suggestions:

- Wear black pants
- Wear no pants
- Change the player names on jerseys to things like “Commitment” and “Excellence”

Alabama losing to Mississippi State was fun. I don”t hate Nick Saban, but I”ve grown to really hate the arrogance of Alabama fans. Your team is not good. Deal with it.

And I hope Arkansas looks like they did against Tennessee when we play them next Friday.

For the week: 3 - 3

For the season: 66 - 13

To Scott Rabalais - awww, isn”t he cute! Look at those cheeks!!! - of The Advocate (the Baton Rouge daily, not the national gay newspaper): LSU doesn”t need Auburn and Alabama to lose this year in order to win the SEC West, so you don”t need to use your Saturday column to pimp the idea that if Georgia beats Auburn and the Tide falls to Sir Croom, LSU gets a trip to Atlanta without even playing in the SEC today.

We”ve got Ole Miss next week to seal it, dude.