SEC Week 11 Predictions

LSU competes in the Swimsuit Competition this weekend, looking to win some style points by rolling Louisiana Tech. And the Tigers had better look good, lest the humans in control of the BCS gain an opportunity to push Oregon up to No. 2. The computers will already punish the Tigers for playing Tech (Sagarin No. 106) more than the Ducks playing Arizona (Sagarin No. 69). And given that La. Tech was blanked by hapless Ole Miss 24-0 and lost to Cal by 30, LSU had better look like the team that took down Virginia Tech 48-7, not the one that struggled for 30 minutes against Tulane.

There’s no reason to think LSU wouldn’t tear La. Tech apart, given the talent differential and the Tigers’ motivation. But it could be the pressure is too much.

LSU 34 – 10

Elsewhere in the SEC:

No. 18 Auburn at No. 10 Georgia – LSU may need Georgia to win out and find their way to the SEC Championship Game to hold off Oregon and/or Oklahoma in the BCS (beating another Top 10 team in Atlanta = good. Beating Tennessee = not as good). But at the same time, an Auburn win makes LSU’s victory over the War Eagles look better, a loss makes it look worse. Kind of a win/win, lose/lose proposition. So what does this game come down to? Georgia leans on the run, and Auburn’s good at stopping it. Auburn 13 – 10

No. 15 Florida at No. 34 South Carolina – I can’t pick the Cocks after what Arkansas did to them last week. Turn Tebow & Co. loose. Gators 34 – 24

No. 22 Alabama at Mississippi State – This seems to be an upset favorite for a bunch of folks. MSU is last in the SEC in total offense, and simply can’t throw the ball. Alabama is vulnerable through the air (the SEC’s No. 11 pass defense), but not so much on the ground (SEC No. 4). I like the Tide here. Alabama 21 – 13

No. 33 Arkansas at No. 24 Tennessee – The Vols no longer own the SEC’s worst defense (No. 11 in scoring and total defense), but they’re still weak across the board. If Arkansas can put together any kind of passing game against the Vols’ SEC-worst pass defense, the lanes will open wide for McFadden and Jones. They might even open wide if Arkansas can’t pass. Hogs 27 – 21

No. 25 Kentucky at Vanderbilt – Shouldn’t be a contest, as Kentucky’s generous defense is saved by Vandy’s weak offense. But the ‘Dores are surprisingly unwilling to be rolled over this year. Closer than one might think. Kentucky 24 – 17

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