Cap’n Ken’s Homespun Wisdom

Never has such pre-season hype been laid upon LSU. The expectation from anyone who believes it is that LSU will play USC for the BCS title next January in New Orleans. ESPN is already pimping the potential of John David Booty playing for the BCS title in his home state against all the rest of Louisiana”s favorite sons. I can”t say I quite understand the incredible level of LSU hype. Sure, we”re bringing back an awesome defense and a good chunk of a great offense from a team that went 11-2, ended the season with seven wins and beat the crap out of Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl. But there are plenty of questions to be answered about this team.

- How much of LSU”s success in 2005 – 2006 was tied to the four guys who got drafted in the first round by the NFL this year? Can we replace that talent successfully?

- How easy will the transition to Gary Crowton”s offense go?

- Can the defense, which will be incredible up front and strong at linebacker, fill two key spots in the secondary?

- How will the Tigers respond to the hype? Will Leslie be a calming force or do his off-season comments hint at a level of smug confidence that”s never helpful?

LSU has earned a certain level of ongoing respect, having won three SEC West titles, two SEC championships and the national championship in the last five years, so I”ll take the No. 2 pre-season ranking as a compliment for the program. And this year, the schedule lines up in our favor, which also raises expectations.

We”re capable, I believe, of winning the SEC West and potentially being in position to make the BCS title game, but this will be the year for Leslie to prove his worth.

Defense:
There”s no doubt that SEC championships are won with defense, and LSU”s returning talent is phenomenal. The keys to the season lie here.

Line – With Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson up front, the Tiger defensive line should be the best in the country. Add in Charles Alexander, Marlon Favorite, Al Woods and Kirston Pittman, and there are some real monsters on the line. No worries there.

Linebackers – Ali Highsmith and Darry Beckwith are world-class; Luke Sanders is quite capable and there”s a lot of young guys behind them.

Backs – Corners are solid with Jonathon Zenon and Chevis Jackson, and Craig Steltz brings a lot of experience to strong safety. The weak links of the defense, however, lie in free safety and in the depth of our defensive backs. Long on youth, short on experience. How this unit comes together will be key, especially early on against Virginia Tech and South Carolina.

Offense:
Gone are Russell, Bowe and Davis from an offense that rang up 33.7 points per game in 2006. To expect quite the same from Flynn, Doucet and LaFell might not be realistic, but there”s good reason to believe the 2007 offense will at worst be capable of controlling the flow (ala Matt Mauck”s offense of 2003) and at best could shake up SEC defenses with Crowton”s new scheme.

Quarterback – I like Matt Flynn, I really do. But enough with the hype about his Peach Bowl performance against Miami. That was a disinterested team not being prepared for Flynn”s style of game. It really proved nothing. But Flynn is a talented and mature guy who”s been around the program a long time. He should be a steady influence to usher in a new offensive scheme, and we”re lucky to have him.

Running backs – If Crowton”s game plan involves something other than running into the right side of the line (thanks, Jimbo!), 2007 could be a breakout year for Charles Scott, Keiland Williams, Richard Murphy, Jacob Hester or any combination of the four. Undeniable talent at a position that was hampered under the old offense.

Receivers – Early Doucet is clearly the star, and Brandon LaFell and Jared Mitchell are potential big-play receivers as well. Again, we”re looking at a new offensive scheme this year, so how the receivers are utilized will determine how many touches, yards and touchdowns these guys get. We”ll miss Bowe and Davis for sure, but those guys were clearly geared toward the big-play game of Russell.

Line – Will Arnold is looking iffy, but as usual there is a lot of young, big talent in LSU”s arsenal. Ciron Black and big Herman Johnson will anchor things, and we”ll have to see what develops beyond that.

Special Teams:
On the return side, we”re strong with Early Doucet and tiny Trindon Holliday available. Kicking and punting could be an adventure.

Coaching:

No, I”m still not sold on Les Miles. But this is his year to prove himself. High expectations and his big mouth in the off season will make success a validation and failure a spotlight. For a guy who”s 22-4 in two seasons, he just doesn”t inspire confidence. But prove me wrong, Leslie.

The big addition, of course, is Crowton as offensive coordinator and QB coach. He brings a good track record and a reputation as an offensive mastermind, so I”ll just sit back and watch. The timing seems right to bring more of a west-coast mindset to the SEC (see Urban Meyer), and anything is better than Jimbo “Run It Into The Line” Fisher. How quickly he”s able to get his guys up to speed (and he doesn”t have long) will be the early measure of his success.

A complement to Crowton should be new receivers coach D.J. McCarthy, who also comes from the Pac 10 (UCLA). If you”re gonna go west coast, it”s good to have your OC and receivers coach on the same page.

I”m not so sure about new offensive line coach Greg Studrawa, who comes to LSU from Bowling Green, where he was offensive coordinator. It seems like somewhat of a strange trajectory for a guy to go from OC back to the offensive line. How much he”s focused on blocking assignments rather than whole schemes will remain to be seen.

Bo Pelini has proven himself as defensive coordinator, and it”s very good to have him back this season. He”ll leave someday for a nice head-coaching gig, and LSU is fortunate to not be replacing both coordinators in a single year.

The Schedule:
Within SEC play, you have to like the draw LSU has. No Georgia, no Tennessee this year, and South Carolina, Florida, Auburn and Arkansas all have to come to Baton Rouge. As much as I dislike Thursday night football, opening with Mississippi State will be a good luke-warm test to start the season and should help get the Tigers ready for a tough home opener against Virginia Tech. MTSU, Tulane and La. Tech make for a manageable non-SEC lineup beyond that.

The pacing of the season also works in LSU”s favor. After MSU, there are nine days to get ready for Virginia Tech. There are no top-level games happening on back-to-back weekends, and nice things like Florida playing Auburn the week before they come to Baton Rouge and Auburn playing Arkansas the week before our game happen as well.

The Outlook
I see the upcoming LSU season boiling down to the mix of expectations, actual talent, coaching changes, a favorible schedule and the overall strengh of the SEC. I predict a very strong season and SEC West title, but not a BCS Championship Game appearance.

@ Mississippi State – WIN

Virginia Tech – LOSS
MTSU – WIN
South Carolina – WIN

@ Tulane – WIN
Florida – WIN
@ Kentucky – WIN

Auburn – WIN
@ Alabama – LOSS
La. Tech – WIN

@ Ole Miss – WIN
Arkansas – WIN

So I see us losing to Virginia Tech and Alabama. With Virginia Tech, I think it”ll be a challenge for all of the changes to come together for such a tough second game. Later on in the year, I think we take that game.

As for the Alabama game, well … that”s about the point in the year where Fonzie will have his team working well, they”ll have the advantage of playing it in Tuscaloosa and I think at that point in the season Alabama will have pressure and LSU will be cocky. Call it a hunch.

The SEC West

Ah, the intrigue. LSU getting unprecedented hype, three teams with 10+ wins last year and – of course – Fonzie”s triumphant return. Going into 2007, it”s safe to think LSU and Auburn will be good and that Saban will make Alabama better than the 6-7 squad of last year. Arkansas is a program in disarray, but one that has a legitimate Heisman candidate at the center of its offense.

So who will break out in “07? The favorite LSU, the strong-as-always Auburn, Fonzie”s boys at Alabama or the wildcat Arkansas gang?

If you count reasonably well, you can tell I see LSU going 7-1 in the SEC. So I believe in our chances of coming out on top of the division. What I see from the other three:

- Alabama: You can”t discount what Saban is capable of. There”s plenty of talent in the Tide, and if they buy in to the program, results might approach the ridiculous expectations of Bama Nation.

- Arkansas: There”s no way McFadden can run every play, and the Hogs aren”t solid enough to win with straight-up football this year.

- Auburn: Expect the same consistent excellence again this year. Tommy T has established a clear identity for Auburn, and it”s a winning formula. Unless and until Saban claims back Alabama football dominance, Auburn will be a perinnial SEC West contender.

In general, I”m positive on LSU and Auburn and negative on Arkansas. Alabama remains a wildcard but will likely get stronger as the season wears on.

Predicted Finish:

1. LSU – 7-1, beating Florida, Auburn and Arkansas, losing to Alabama

2. Alabama – 6-2, beating Arkansas, LSU and Auburn, losing to Georgia and Tennessee
3. Auburn – 6-2, beating Florida, Arkansas and Georgia, losing to LSU and Alabama
4. Arkansas – 4-4, beating nobody much, losing to Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee and LSU