Cap’n Ken’s Homespun Wisdom

OK, so except for those extra games played by real conferences, the Rutgers / West Virginia game to settle the Big East and the Pac-10″s final “let”s make it look like we actually have a conference championship by playing games on that weekend” set of games, the college football season is over and jockeying for the BCS and major bowls has begun.

So in advance of today”s BCS results – which will likely hint at an Ohio State / USC championship game – let”s throw some Wisdom at the BCS picture. For your reference, I”m basing rankings and comparisons on the Sagarin ratings – the real ones, not the BCS-tuned ones. Ohio State: Not losing counts for a whole lot, and I guess it”s hard to argue with the only undefeated major-conference team being No. 1. But I have a problem with the Buckeyes. Yes, wins over Michigan (Sagarin No. 3) and Texas (No. 17) are nice, but beyond that Ohio State beat No. 22, No. 36, No. 39, No. 46, No. 71, No. 75, No. 81, No. 88, No. 101 and No. 136. Couple the weak schedule (Sagarin rank: 36) with the ugly truth that the Buckeyes got to avoid 11-1 Wisconsin because the Big 10 has no championship game, and Ohio State leaves me cold. One day the Big 10 will get screwed by not having a championship, then maybe things will change. But today, the Buckeyes checking out after Nov. 18 and sitting around waiting for the BCS title game feels very hollow.

USC: I have, of course, taken issue with USC and the Pac-10 in the past for being weak. But this year, I have to give credit to USC for loading up the out of conference schedule – No. 8 Arkansas, No. 11 Notre Dame and No. 29 Nebraska – and to the Pac-10 for at least going to a nine-game conference schedule so everybody plays everybody else. With the 3rd-toughest schedule, convincing wins over the No. 7, No. 8, No. 21 and No. 29 and a two-point loss to No. 19 Oregon State, USC has earned their way into the BCS title game – assuming they get past UCLA next week.

Michigan: If the Wolverines get shut out of the BCS title game in part because they stopped playing Nov. 18, it would be a little bit of justice for the weakness of the Big 10. Michigan is a good team, but their season doesn”t compare to USC”s. I will say it”s ridiculous that Michigan is suffering from the idea that a rematch with Ohio State would be somehow undesirable. If Michigan were truly the second-best team, they should get a shot at the title.

Florida: I have a big problem with the fact that playing an extra game (a conference championship game) doesn”t seem to count for much in the college football world. I mean, is 12-1 not just inherently more impressive than 11-1? And when the extra game is almost guaranteed to be against a good team – it should count for a lot. But you hear precious little about that, which is wrong. That said, Florida is not a powerhouse one-loss team. Scheduling Central Florida (No. 110) and Western Carolina (No. 212) as out-of-conference games is inexcusable. Wins over No. 5 LSU and No. 9 Tennessee are nice, but none of the Gators” wins have been impressive. And beating No. 8 Arkansas Saturday will help, but not enough. The Gators will bitch about being left out of the title game, but they don”t deserve a shot.

Louisville: Yeah, no. Next.

Boise State: The biggest tragedy of the BCS is that major conferences have been pressured into letting joke teams like this into the mix if they manage to not fuck up their easy ride through their season.

Assuming USC gets past UCLA, the Trojans should and probably will play Ohio State for the title.

Outside of the BCS title game, there are a lot of questions about who gets in the BCS club and where they go, and a lot of that revolves around LSU.

With the extra title game now in the mix, there are 10 spots in BCS bowls. The selection process is a mix of traditional bowl alliances and make-up picks when a bowl loses its regular conference matchups, and it”s important to remember that no more than two teams from any conference can be in the BCS mix.

The big wrinkle here is whether Rutgers or Louisville wins the Big East. If Rutgers beats West Virginia next week, they”re in the BCS. And an 11-1 Louisville would be sitting there as a potential at-large pick. If Louisville stays ahead of LSU in the BCS rankings, there”s a case to be made for giving them an at-large spot.

Another thing in play is where Notre Dame falls. If they remain in the top 8 of the BCS, they get an automatic bid. With Boise State squatting on their pathetic automatic bid, giving Notre Dame a guaranteed spot would leave just two at-large spots. And Michigan has one of those.

If Florida beats Arkansas and West Virginia beats Rutgers, the BCS picture is fairly clear:

SEC Champ: Florida
ACC Champ: Wake / Ga. Tech
Big East Champ: Louisville

Big 10 Champ: Ohio State
Big 12 Champ: Nebraska / Oklahoma
Pac 10 Champ: USC
Pity Spot: Boise State
Champion of Being Notre Dame: Notre Dame
At-Large Lock: Michigan

At large contenders (one spot): LSU

There”s a chance Notre Dame might end up without their automatic bid, meaning two at-large spots open up (with Notre Dame probably a lock for one anyway).

But if things got wacky and Arkansas and Rutgers win next week, we”d be looking at three contenders (LSU, Florida, Louisville) for one at-large BCS spot. Ugly.

Ohio State is in the title game, which means the Rose Bowl gets the first pick to replace their Big 10 champion. And if USC also goes to the title game the Rose will have lost both its tie-in teams. So Pasadena is going to get to pick whatever matchup they want. They”ll gladly fill one of those spots with Michigan.

The second Rose spot will go to a BCS team not tied by its conference to a bowl. The contenders are Notre Dame, LSU, the Big East champion, Boise State, Louisville if Rutgers wins the Big East and Florida if they lose to Arkansas. Wisconsin is screwed because two Big 10 teams are already in.

The Sugar will get the SEC champion. If the champion is Arkansas, Florida and LSU will be sitting there as potential at-large BCS picks, with one team getting left out. In that scenario, LSU will probably be a top-5 team and ranked ahead of Florida … a team that beat the Tigers and has one more win than LSU. Would the Rose pick LSU over Florida? Probably. If the Rose didn”t pick LSU or Florida, the Sugar would quickly pass on rematches of the last two weekends and the Orange would probably take the Gators, leaving LSU out in the cold.

If Florida beats Arkansas, the Rose will choose from LSU, Notre Dame, the Big East champion, Louisville if Rutgers wins the Big East and Boise State. Yes, the idea of a Michigan / Notre Dame rematch is probably not desirable, and LSU has the momentum and buzz. But the Rose is funny for liking real old-school matchups, so I don”t discount the idea of Notre Dame backing into it. But after getting waxed by USC? Notre Dame”s star has fallen. The Rose wouldn”t take Rutgers if they win the Big East. But would they take Louisville as an at-large team? Maybe, but Louisville doesn”t feel right in the Rose Bowl. With Florida in the Sugar, the Rose looks likely for LSU.

After the Rose, the Sugar has the second at-large pick. If LSU is shunned by the Rose, would the folks in New Orleans go for an all-SEC matchup? Highly doubtful. If Rutgers wins the Big East, they or Louisville would be an appealing pick for the Sugar, and hopefully fill up a lot of hotel rooms in New Orleans. If the Sugar took an at-large Louisville, LSU would be out of luck for the BCS.

Then it”s the Orange, which is LSU”s other potential landing spot if the Rose went with Notre Dame. If the at-large spot hasn”t been filled, the Orange could take LSU, and might. But if Rutgers wins the Big East, chances are very good they and Louisville fill the vacancies in the Sugar and Orange.

The Fiesta is pretty well set, with the Big 12 champion tied to it and somebody having to take Boise State.

What all this boils down to is LSU needs Florida and West Virginia wins Saturday, and if those come off I might need to schedule some meetings at our Pasadena office the first week of January.

So, then – big game this Friday for LSU. And a bigger game for Arkansas. Everything has been decided as far as the SEC title race goes, but a win Friday is key to each team”s hope for a Top 5 finish. I think most objective folks looking at this game say Arkansas is a lock. They”ve won 10 in a row and look stronger every week. They”re more or less playing at home and need the game to stay in the BCS race (title game is a longshot, though).

As with every single game LSU has played this week, I think we have superior talent. Arkansas can be beat with the pass, and their run defense isn”t that strong, either. We”ve got talent to spare on offense, and our rush game has shown promise, rolling up 200+ yards against Alabama and Tennessee (but just 91 against Ole Miss). If we have a good offensive gameplan and actually execute it, we”ll be in good shape.

The key to stopping Arkansas, of course, is shutting down the running game. And while LSU has the nation”s 6th-best rush defense, the best rush offense we”ve faced is – I”m serious – ULL at 20th in the nation. Arkansas is 2nd in the nation with 230 yards per game.

So call our rush defense untested at best. And I”m concerned about Darry Beckwith being able to play (at full speed, especially), and a strong linebacker corps is key to stopping the Hogs” running game.

I think it comes down to this: LSU has to have a consistent and effective offense Friday to win this game. Unlike Tennessee and Ole Miss, Arkansas has the ability to control the ball and run clock. If Arkansas goes up by 13 late in the 3rd quarter, LSU can”t count on having the ball for 8 of the last 15 minutes like last week.

All that said, I need to make a pick. Faith in Leslie … or the expectation of more of the same? Sorry, I just can”t trust Leslie.

Hogs 24 – 20

Elsewhere … who really cares now?

I”ll say Florida, Tennessee, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Georgia Tech win. The teams they play lose.

Last week, I went 6-1. For the year, 72-18.