Cap’n Ken’s Homespun Wisdom

Jesus I”m slacking of late. A lot of my free-time attention is going toward The Buzz these days, and free time has been hard to come by. I”m a bad blogger.

So anyway, I blew a lot of picks last week (I shoulda taken Vandy!), going 4-2 on the week and now I”m 48-10 on the year. This week, LSU welcomes Fresno State to town. I”d thought about going down for this one, but then Hawaii put up 68 points on Fresno. Actually, I”m just too beat to lose another weekend to live football.

For No. 14 LSU, I smell a down week. Coming off the offensive practice session known as the Kentucky game, having Auburn not get their second SEC loss, knowing Fresno got 68 put on them last week, going in to an off week before the Tennessee game and having the game start so late, sharpness may be hard to muster.

Luckily, Fresno is really bad. LSU 31 - 24

Elsewhere in the SEC:

Alabama at No. 8.5 Tennessee: It”s been five weeks since Tennessee has faced a real team, having taken out lightweights Marshall, Memphis and Georgia before taking last week off. The Vols have hopes for the SEC East title again with Florida losing last week, so they have a lot on the line. Alabama has two conference losses and barely got past Ole Miss last week, but they”re not out of the SEC West race yet. The Tide plays two (LSU and Auburn) of the teams ahead of them late in the year, so if Arkansas stumbles badly, the door could be open if Bama wins out. But I think the Vols have the better talent, and they”re at home. Tennessee 24 - 17

Ole Miss at No. 17.5 Arkansas: This is the type of game where an over-achieving team like Arkansas could get exposed. Sure, they figured out Auburn pretty well, but they only beat Vandy by two points and Bama by one. They feel good about blowing away SE Missouri, have UL-Monroe to look foward to next week and poor little Ole Miss coming to town tomorrow. I think they call it a “trap game”. And I need the Hogs to lose. Ole Miss 24 - 21

Mississippi State at No. 24 Georgia: Is there any way Georgia could lose at home to MSU one week after losing at home to Vandy and two weeks after getting their vaginas handed to them (at home) by Tennessee? I suppose there is, but unless Georgia is truly an awful team, they”ll “hunker down” and take care of this one. Dawgs 18 - 10

South Carolina at Vandy: The downside of beating Georgia when you”re Vandy? The next team you play has an automatic motivation to not look past you. Cocks 38 - 24

Tulane at No. 7 Auburn: Tigers 45 - 13

The first week of BCS rankings are out, so that means the first full set of BCS computer rankings are out as well. Let”s see how the computers view things relative to the humans. BCS computer rankings as of Oct. 15:

1. USC
2. Michigan
3. Ohio State

4. Florida
5. Auburn
6. California
7. Notre Dame
8. Arkansas
9. Rutgers

10. Louisville
11. Boise State
12. Tennessee
13. Oregon
14. West Virginia
15. Texas

16. Clemson
17. Wisconsin
18. Boston College
19. Nebraska
20. Tulsa
21. LSU

22. Georgia Tech
23. ??
24. Missouri
25. ??

Nos. 23 and 25 are unknown because whoever those teams are, they”re not in the BCS top 25. So what are the big differences between the humans and the computers?

Computers like a lot more than humans:

- Florida (No. 4 by computers; No. 9.5 by humans)
- Arkansas (No. 8 by computers; No. 17.5 by humans)
- Rutgers (No. 9 by computers; No. 19 by humans)
- Tulsa (No. 20 by computers; No. 35.5 by humans)

Humans like a lot more than computers:

- West Virginia (No. 4 by humans; No. 14 by computers)
- Texas (No. 5 by humans; No. 15 by computers)
- Georgia Tech (No. 13 by humans; No. 22 by computers)
- LSU (No. 14 by humans; No. 21 by computers)

Keep in mind that the computers are only concerned with games that have been played so far, and don”t factor in point spreads or other “quality of win” factors (in the Sagarin ranking, for instance, USC would be No. 12 instead of No. 1 if margin of victory were included in BCS rankings). It”s basically “how good are the teams you”ve played … and have you won?”

Humans, of course, operate on the principle of “where were you ranked last week?” (based on “where were you ranked before you even played a game?”), “did you win or lose last week?”, “did teams ranked ahead or behind you win or lose?” and other factors that live in the minds of humans.

A key cog in the first BCS computer rankings is Arkansas. The Hogs lost to the No. 1 team and beat the No. 5 team. Their win over Auburn helps USC”s ranking, and having played USC helps Auburn. Compare that to Texas, who lost to the No. 3 team and beat the No. 28 team (Oklahoma). Humans say Texas is No. 5 and Arkansas is No. 17.5, but the computers say Texas is No. 15 and Arkansas is No. 8. And so USC is No. 1 in the computers and Ohio State (who beat Texas) is No. 3.

Being the first week of BCS rankings, there”s a lot of fluff in the computers. Florida ranks No. 4 because they”ve beaten No. 12 and No. 21 and lost to No. 5. West Virginia is way down at No. 14 because they”ve played nobody. They”ll climb in the computers when they play Louisville and Rutgers (who has also played nobody, but better nobodys than West Virginia … so they get a No. 9 initial ranking).

So Auburn fans shouldn”t get too excited about their initial No. 4 BCS rank (I can hear it now … “Ohio State and Michigan have to play each other, so one of those is out. USC will lose down the road … so the No. 2 spot is ours!”). Sorry. The BCS title game will be:

The Ohio State / Michigan winner (assuming the game”s winner goes undefeated)

vs.

a) USC (undefeated or with one quality loss)
b) West Virginia (only if they are undefeated)
or
c) The loser of the Ohio State / Michigan game (provider the loser has just one loss and the winner is undefeated)

Outside of Auburn / Florida, it”s a pretty lame weekend in the SEC. So I”ll make this short and sweet. No. 3 Florida at No. 10 Auburn: Here”s the game where the SEC talking points are defined. Either it”s “Florida”s a shoe-in for the BCS title game after making it through their schedule” if the Crocs win or “an SEC team will never make the BCS title game again … the road”s too hard” if it”s the TigerEagles. The national press is in love with Florida and the Lebow offense now, so the easy call is Crocs win and keep rolling. But Auburn isn”t as bad as Arkansas made them look (and maybe Arkansas is better than we thought), so it”s compelling to pick the TigerEagles here also. With LSU as a common victim, I”ll lean on my takeaways from our games for some guidance.

LSU didn”t have much of a problem with Auburn”s pass defense (our problem was with the officials), as JaMarcus rang up a healthy 269 yards in the air. We didn”t run the ball worth a damn, but that”s not unusual. Arkansas certainly showed it”s possible. Florida showed how tough its run defense is against LSU last week, and while their pass defense is not spectacular overall, their game-changer defensive backs make it hard to win with the air attack. And Auburn doesn”t have much of a throwing game.

Given that Auburn has shown itself vunerable to both a pro-style passing attack and an imaginative run game (no, Jimbo, you can”t just hammer into their line), they might just be ripe pickings for Florida”s offense. I don”t know that Tim Tebow can physically survive playing full-time QB in the SEC (boy takes a lot of hits), but the Leak / Tebow combination is a unique and powerful one.

So I have to go Crocs here. Florida 24 - 17

Kentucky at No. 16 LSU: All I have to say about this is the LSU Athletic Department is throwing a load of bullshit at us with the “we can”t put a TigerVision game together in six days” crap. They just don”t want the embarassment of a potential non-sellout SEC game coming off the Florida loss and with a pathetic Kentucky team coming in. Tigers 51 - 27

Vanderbilt at No. 14 Georgia: I”m still really happy about the Vols ripping the Dawgs open. That”s all I have to say. Georgia 24 - 10

Ole Miss at Alabama: CBS should be ashamed for taking this game. Tide 24 - 14

SE Missouri at No. 22.5 Arkansas: Cupcake, anyone? The SEC West-leading Hogs need to prove their worth and gear up for their next test … in four weeks at South Carolina. Hogs 45 - 13

Jacksonville State at Mississippi State: Cupcake, anyon… wait, this is 1-5 MSU. SEC pride keeps me from not picking the Bulldogs. MSU 9 - 6

I”m not avoiding writing about the LSU / Florida game because, you know, TCL and I threw away an entire weekend to see the mess in person. I just don”t have a lot to say about it. We pissed the game away; time after time. The Wisdom is getting a lot of fresh traffic from the “fire les miles” crowd, but I”m not ready to go back there. Are muffed punts and kicks a sign of poor discipline? Sure. But let”s face it, the team just made too many mistakes. Unless Leslie”s game strategy was to give the ball back to Florida time after time, this was more of a off, off day than signs of Miles” incompetence. Not that I”m a Leslie fan now or anything …

And considering the five turnovers LSU had, Florida was held pretty well in check. We straight out gave them two points and handed them an easy seven on our muffed kicks, so apart from that they managed just 14 points. Without the multitude of LSU mistakes, the game would have been a different affair.

But alas, it was not to be.

Elsewhere in the SEC, Arkansas made many an LSU boy happy earlier in the day - and proved me wrong. And Vandy let me down in my pick of them over Ole Miss. But Tennessee ripping the toenails off of Georgia was almost satisfying enough to make the LSU loss tolerable.

For the week, 4-3. For the season, 44-8.

I got no good analysis to give for No. 9.5 LSU at No. 5 Florida tomorrow. The Crocs are more battle-tested, having beaten both Tennessee and Alabama, and apart from the Auburn game there”s not much faith I can put in stats coming out of our games so far. Let”s face it: wins over ULL, Arizona, Tulane and Mississippi State aren”t good leading indicators for an outcome against Florida. All I know is this - LSU”s talent is being put to good use this year. And we probably have the best talent in the SEC. Yeah, we have no sense of a running game, but run defense is Florida”s strength anyway. So throw the backs into the line a couple of dozen times and let those Crocs feast.

Meanwhile, set JaMarcus free on the pass defense that gave up more air yards to Alabama than UL-Monroe did. It won”t be like ringing up a quick 35 on MSU, but there”s a winning game plan in there.

On the defensive side, LSU has to stop the pass when Chris Leak is in and stop the run when Tim Tebow takes the field. I”m still not all that impressed with Urban”s offense, especially when Leak tries to run it. If LSU can take away an effective passing game and force Florida into a running game, that”ll be a good sign. And DeShawn Wynn being out is a nice bonus.

Florida”s a good team, but hardly the scary foe you”d expect from a Crocs team with a guy like Leak running the show. We can take “em.

LSU 31 - 20

P.S. TCL will be down in Gainesville (and lodging in beautiful Starke, Florida) and sitting high up in the endzone for a birds-eye view of the action.

Separate LSU / Florida preview and pick to follow.

The first meaty weekend of SEC v. SEC big-name matchups will go a long way toward defining the races in both the West and East sides of the conference. In the West you have the division”s two unbeatens - Auburn and Arkansas (Arkansas? seriously … they”re the other unbeaten? OK) squaring off and East unbeatens Florida and Georgia have top-tier games to get through on Saturday. No. 13.5 Tennessee at No. 9.5 Georgia: “Every great team has to overcome one two tough games against an upset-minded team …” Yeah, fuck off, Georgia fans. Oh, but with the return of superstar QB Joe Terrischiavo XMIV (9 of 20 for 108 yards before his vagina got hurt), the Dawgs are gonna roll all over the Vols!!! Yeah, OK. Vols 28 - 17

Arkansas at No. 3 Auburn: Could it be a game? Maybe. Auburn can look shaky (see the South Carolina game) and Arkansas can look good (see the Alabama game). But I have to figure Auburn will put their new, $45,000 laptop to good use and tighten things down after last week”s game and with Florida looming next week. Tigers 20 - 14

Vandy at Ole Miss: I have to go with the “Dores here. The Rebels were happy to have played Georgia so tough, but at some point they had to realize Georgia”s not very good. Vandy 27 - 21

Kentucky at South Carolina: The Cats are currently in third place in the SEC East. It”ll be important for them to remember that a month from now when they”re tied for last. Cocks 31 - 9

Duke at Alabama: It won”t be pretty when the Tide gets to open up on Duke after the Florida game. Tide 34 - 6

No. 4.75 West Virginia at Mississippi State: How awesome would it be for the undressing of the bullshit BCS contender to come at the hands of the SEC”s worst team? Maybe the cowbells will rattle the Mountaineers. A boy can dream, right? WVA 41 - 17