The first week of BCS rankings are out, so that means the first full set of BCS computer rankings are out as well. Let”s see how the computers view things relative to the humans. BCS computer rankings as of Oct. 15:
1. USC
2. Michigan
3. Ohio State
4. Florida
5. Auburn
6. California
7. Notre Dame
8. Arkansas
9. Rutgers
10. Louisville
11. Boise State
12. Tennessee
13. Oregon
14. West Virginia
15. Texas
16. Clemson
17. Wisconsin
18. Boston College
19. Nebraska
20. Tulsa
21. LSU
22. Georgia Tech
23. ??
24. Missouri
25. ??
Nos. 23 and 25 are unknown because whoever those teams are, they”re not in the BCS top 25. So what are the big differences between the humans and the computers?
Computers like a lot more than humans:
- Florida (No. 4 by computers; No. 9.5 by humans)
- Arkansas (No. 8 by computers; No. 17.5 by humans)
- Rutgers (No. 9 by computers; No. 19 by humans)
- Tulsa (No. 20 by computers; No. 35.5 by humans)
Humans like a lot more than computers:
- West Virginia (No. 4 by humans; No. 14 by computers)
- Texas (No. 5 by humans; No. 15 by computers)
- Georgia Tech (No. 13 by humans; No. 22 by computers)
- LSU (No. 14 by humans; No. 21 by computers)
Keep in mind that the computers are only concerned with games that have been played so far, and don”t factor in point spreads or other “quality of win” factors (in the Sagarin ranking, for instance, USC would be No. 12 instead of No. 1 if margin of victory were included in BCS rankings). It”s basically “how good are the teams you”ve played … and have you won?”
Humans, of course, operate on the principle of “where were you ranked last week?” (based on “where were you ranked before you even played a game?”), “did you win or lose last week?”, “did teams ranked ahead or behind you win or lose?” and other factors that live in the minds of humans.
A key cog in the first BCS computer rankings is Arkansas. The Hogs lost to the No. 1 team and beat the No. 5 team. Their win over Auburn helps USC”s ranking, and having played USC helps Auburn. Compare that to Texas, who lost to the No. 3 team and beat the No. 28 team (Oklahoma). Humans say Texas is No. 5 and Arkansas is No. 17.5, but the computers say Texas is No. 15 and Arkansas is No. 8. And so USC is No. 1 in the computers and Ohio State (who beat Texas) is No. 3.
Being the first week of BCS rankings, there”s a lot of fluff in the computers. Florida ranks No. 4 because they”ve beaten No. 12 and No. 21 and lost to No. 5. West Virginia is way down at No. 14 because they”ve played nobody. They”ll climb in the computers when they play Louisville and Rutgers (who has also played nobody, but better nobodys than West Virginia … so they get a No. 9 initial ranking).
So Auburn fans shouldn”t get too excited about their initial No. 4 BCS rank (I can hear it now … “Ohio State and Michigan have to play each other, so one of those is out. USC will lose down the road … so the No. 2 spot is ours!”). Sorry. The BCS title game will be:
The Ohio State / Michigan winner (assuming the game”s winner goes undefeated)
vs.
a) USC (undefeated or with one quality loss)
b) West Virginia (only if they are undefeated)
or
c) The loser of the Ohio State / Michigan game (provider the loser has just one loss and the winner is undefeated)
