It was seriously inconsiderate for Fresno State to keep me up until 2:30 a.m. and then blow their shot at beating USC last night. Had they played just a little less dumb, things would all of a sudden be fairly interesting in BCS land.
But no.
For those of you who don”t care about college football but are still reading this (which is probably nobody) Georgia Tech beat BCS No. 3 Miami, which is good news for LSU. But it”s good news on par with getting your annual mortgage escrow statement and finding out they over-withheld $10; a check for which is enclosed.
As of this week, LSU sat at No. 5 in the BCS, so we needed an improbable amount of help to have any shot at Pasadena this late in the season. Miami is gone now, but that still leaves USC, Texas and Penn State ahead of us. So let”s reset the situation:
- USC has only to play UCLA Dec. 3 when the real conferences are playing their championship games. In normal circumstances, one could assume a loss there would drop them in the human polls behind Texas, Penn State and LSU, since humans typically only look at what happens week to week. But I predict that if USC were to lose in their faux championship game, they would fall only to No. 2 in the human polls, which would be a very rare example of human pollsters applying logic. It would take 35 straight wins for human pollsters to understand this, but obviously USC would be the best of the one-loss teams. So book the Trojans a cross-town bus ticket now.
- Texas still has their A&M game plus the Big 12 Championship game, and any hopes of a BCS shakeup lie with the Longhorns screwing up one of those games. They would not get the same courtesy of logic by the human pollsters, especially if they were to lose their conference title game. Human pollsters still remember Oklahoma in 2003. Maybe the refs will let Colorado play with five downs again in the title game.
- Penn State is done; and I don”t just mean their schedule. Here”s a bit of BCS Wisdom: LSU may well pass Penn State for the No.3 spot this week and will surely do so if the Tigers win the SEC title game. On the logical and more accurate computer side, Penn State sat at No. 3 and LSU at No. 8 this past week. Obviously, Penn State has topped out on the computer side, but thanks to Miami”s loss (they sat at No. 5 in the computers), LSU will likely move up a spot despite playing a weak Ole Miss yesterday.
LSU trailed Penn State by .0296 points in last week”s BCS, and one spot in the computer rankings is worth between .0400 and .0500 points. So it”s likely LSU will pass Penn State based solely on Miami”s loss, and by the time a necessary win over UGA is factored in, LSU should climb in the computer rankings and settle in at a strong No. 3.
It”s also likely that Texas will again pass USC in tomorrow”s BCS ranking, thanks to the human polls swinging just a bit away from the Trojans after their near-loss last night.
So like Smoove, I”ll be pulling hard for A&M next week, and I”ll be a Buffs fan Dec. 3. But it”s a longshot for sure.
