So one bad half of football, one good half of football and one good overtime later, LSU “controls its own destiny”, as the announcers are fond of saying.
And, it seems, nine games into the season, Leslie and the boys appear closer to understanding what kind of team we have. It”s no coincidence that each of our scoring drives (and would-be scoring drives) featured our big, passing quarterback throwing to our fast, talented receivers.
Our big, fast defense didn”t pressure Alabama in the first half, and they scored their first touchdown in four games. Apparently Bo watched game film of LSU”s last three years at halftime; as he turned the guys loose and completely shut down Bama in the second half.
Keep the defense turned up and focus more on the throwing game, and LSU might actually look like a top-5 team come December 3.
It”s never a good idea to assume anything with LSU, but if we don”t blow things against Ole Miss or Arkansas (two really, really bad teams), let”s examine the long-shot chances for Tigers in Pasadena.
More than likely, LSU will land at No. 6 in the BCS this week, with USC, Texas, Miami, Penn State and Virginia Tech ahead of us. Depending on how well the computers treat us after we beat Bama and Auburn beat Georgia (we were way down at No. 13 there last week), I think there”s a chance we could pass Virginia Tech, but given how weak our two remaining opponents are, let”s assume we settle in at 6 if we win out the regular season.
- USC has to play two ranked teams (Fresno State and UCLA) to end the season. Chance of a loss – 20%
- Texas has to play Texas A&M and likely Colorado in the Big 12 title game. Chance of a loss – I”ll say 30%
- Miami has to play Georgia Tech, Virginia and then Florida State in the ACC title game. Chance of a loss – Give it 35%
- Penn State has to play only Michigan State next week. Chance of a loss – Maybe 10%
- Virginia Tech has to play Virginia and North Carolina, but won”t make the ACC title game. Chance of a loss – Probably under 25%
Without losses by four of those five teams, the destiny LSU controls smells a lot like Sugar.
Had Georgia won last night, the computer strength of beating a top-10 team in the SEC championship game might have helped us jump a team in the BCS, but that ending and the pain it”s causing UGA fans today was worth any BCS slippage.
Likewise, we”d have been better off if Florida had beaten S. Carolina, but who can deny the fun of a Spurrier win there? I bet even some Gator fans are a little happy about it.
And with both a Pac-10 school and a Big 10 school in the BCS hunt this year, it really underscores the unfair advantage those conferences have with no title game. Texas and Miami will both have to play an extra game against a decent team to make the Rose Bowl. USC and Penn State should have to do the same. Someday those conferences will get rightfully screwed by their lack of a title game.
As far as Virginia Tech – which can”t win the ACC – goes, my reading of the BCS rules are that whoever is ranked 1 and 2 play in the title game, no matter if they are conference champions. It”s the other bowls who are bound to pick the champs first, then choose from the other teams in the top 12 and any teams from loser conferences in the top 6.
As I”ve said before, at least the Sugar Bowl is in Atlanta this year.
