LSU and the BCS (again)

Attention LSU Fans / Les Haters (or even Les lovers, if any of you exist): This is an old post, yo. You probably got here from Google. So get the up-to-date LSU Wisdom here

I think it”s indicative of the sense of pending doom with Les Miles at the wheel that there”s not a lot of excitement over LSU being No. 6 in the initial BCS rankings. I know personally a lot of joy has gone out of watching LSU because I disapprove of our coach so much.

To be sure, LSU has tough tasks ahead if the BCS dance is to be meaningful to us. Namely, Auburn, Alabama and an SEC title game, not to mention potential letdowns against Ole Miss or Arkansas.

But the Tigers have the talent and potential to overcome their coaching and win out to get to the SEC Championship. Then it”s a one-game play-in for the BCS.

So, assuming we beat Auburn this weekend, my focus will turn to the “what ifs” and “how tos” of rising in the BCS.

Being No. 6 isn”t as far out of No. 2 as it might seem, at least in LSU”s case. The biggest reason is that No. 4 is Georgia and No. 5 is Alabama. LSU must beat Alabama to stay on the BCS course, and if Georgia stays ahead of LSU, it means they are the SEC East champion and thus our foe in Atlanta.

Therefore, if the Tigers remain in the BCS hunt, we will have necessarily passed both Alabama and Georgia. So realistically right now, LSU is actually sitting at No. 4 in the BCS if we win out (let”s ignore the very real possibility that LSU loses to Auburn and Alabama – then maybe also Ole Miss or Arkansas for the moment).

But No. 4 doesn”t get you to Pasadena.

The BCS top 3 right now, of course, are USC, Texas and Virginia Tech. Subtleties of the computer rankings aside (no need to think about that unless we beat Auburn and Alabama), is it possible that two of those three teams might lose in the coming weeks?

USC: Not likely, but their late-season schedule looks tougher than it did in August. Most notably, UCLA is 6-0 right now and No. 9 in the BCS, and those two play each other Dec. 3 in lieu of a conference championship game. But given the nation”s love of the Trojans and the bias they”ve earned over the past three years, don”t count on USC falling below other one-loss teams if and when they finally lose a game. Pencil them in the BCS, barring two losses this year.

Texas: Likely to lose, either to Texas Tech (No. 7 in the BCS) this weekend, Texas A&M at the end of the season or in the Big 12 title game. Mack Brown folds better than a Korean laundry, so never bet on the Longhorns to go all the way.

Virginia Tech: Likely to lose, either to Miami (No. 8 in the BCS) Nov. 5 or in the new ACC title game Dec. 3 (most likely against Florida State). Also in the way are Boston College (yawn) and Virginia (semi-yawn).

But wait. Given the willingness of voters in the Coaches” and Harris poll to ignore tradition and move teams up after big wins, it”s likely that Texas Tech would pass LSU in the human polls and BCS next week if they beat Texas and we beat Auburn. It”s also possible that Miami could pass LSU if they beat Virginia Tech the same week we play Appalachian State.

Would LSU get similar consideration the weekend we play Alabama or after the SEC title game? Not likely.

The short answer after a long post is that LSU is closer to a BCS title game than it might appear; but there”s a lot of football and BCS shifting to come between now and Dec. 4.

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