Cap’n Ken’s Homespun Wisdom

Yes, the 4th-straight football blog … it”s a short and busy holiday week, and LSU ball is getting too interesting to focus on much else at the moment. Sue me.

And, being Thanksgiving week, the wife and I are not only heading out of town tonight, but Ole Miss plays Miss. State tomorrow, meaning extra-early picking.

But first … Friday at 2:30 eastern it”s LSU and Arkansas in Tiger Stadium. Not much on the line besides the SEC West championship and LSU”s continued Sugar Bowl hopes …

The Hogs, and especially their lanky white-guy quarterback, can run the ball, and they”ve rung up a bunch of points this year - against Tulsa, Texas, North Texas, New Mexico State and Mississippi State. They were held to 3 points by Auburn and 7 by Ole Miss. So they”re up and down, to say the least. But they”ve got their running backs off the injured list now, so they”ve got ground-game potential.

Shall I remind all that LSU has the country”s best run defense and holds opponents to 9 points a game? Keeping that lanky white guy in check may be tough, but he”ll have to make a whole lot of big plays for the Hogs to pull this out.

And after being kicked aside by Arkansas last year and with USC”s blood in the water, LSU should be well-focused on the task at hand - beat Arkansas to get to the SEC Championship and keep the BCS hopes alive.

Our offense, of course, will have to play better than it did against Ole Miss. We know what we did wrong in Oxford, and Saban should have the fixes in place. LSU, 31 - 20

Elsewhere, Florida State visits Florida in a key game for mid-level BCS rankings. As a potential foe in the SEC Championship, I have to pull for Florida here, and I think they pull it out. Crocs, 28 - 24

Tennessee at Kentucky - Please, J-Load, pull an upset here and put Florida in the SEC Championship. Will it happen? Probably not. But for the sake of good gris-gris and self-preservation, I”m picking the Cats. Kentucky, 28 - 27

Georgia at Georgia Tech - If the Dawgs beat the Jackets on North Avenue, they probably get to play a week later just down the street at the Georgia Dome. UGA, 24 - 10

Ole Miss at Mississippi State (Thursday) - They call it The Egg Bowl. Not sure why. This year it”s also known as Sherrill”s Last Stand. He”ll finish out like Custer. Rebels, 38 - 13

Alabama at Hawaii - Bama”s pacific trip is a bowl-substitute for the Tide, and a win over the “Warriors” will help LSU by dropping USC”s strength of schedule. Count on it. Bama, 28 - 21

NOTE: Despite the current color scheme of this blog, the little “tiger at a press conference” logo at top right and the fact that LSU is currently ranked No. 3 in the BCS, this piece is not about LSU”s chances to move past USC into the No. 2 spot of the BCS and play for the national championship. To write about such things would be to look way, way too far ahead. We still have to beat Arkansas the win the SEC Championship game. I understand that, and therefore this piece is a hypothetical examination of the BCS dynamics.

In the office yesterday, me and the one guy I don”t hate up here were talking BCS and whether a team in third place near the end of the regular season could possibly pass a team ranked second if the second-place team does not lose its last game of the season.

The only talk about such a circumstance puts it at a longshot. But let”s take a closer look at this completely hypothetical BCS situation and I”ll try to show how such a flip could be likely.

In this situation, we have Team A (at 2nd in the BCS) and Team B (3rd in the BCS). Both teams are 10-1. Team A is second in both human polls, Team B third in both. Team A”s average computer ranking is 2.33, Team B”s is 3.00. Team A has a better strength of schedule (SOS), but Team B has -.4 quality win points, leaving Team A at 6.89 in total BCS points and Team B at 9.04 (lower, of course, is better).

The conventional wisdom is that Team A is a lock if it wins its last game. No way Team B can make up a 2.15 spread if both teams win out and have just 1 loss each.

But … let”s look a little closer. Team B not only has a final regular-season game to play this week, but a conference championship game after that. Team A does not play its final game until the same day as Team B”s conference championship game.

Team B”s opponent this week is currently 8-3, which will help improve Team B”s SOS. An educated guess is that this week Team B”s SOS points would improve by about .44. And because SOS is a major component in the computer rankings, Team B could very well improve it”s BCS points there by .50.

Team B has already passed Team A in 2 of the 7 computer ratings, and if Team B displaces Team A in any more, Team A could lose a few tenths as well. There”s a real possibility that computer rankings could be a wash by next Monday at 2.50 each.

And Team A is likely to suffer a slight drop in SOS in their off week because of games played by its opponents.

Therefore, it”s quite possible that the 2.15 point gap between A and B this week could narrow to around 1.25 by next Monday.

Then the following week, Team A is back in action against a 7-4 team while Team B would play either a 9-2 or 8-3 team in its conference championship. Team A”s SOS would stay more of less the same, while Team B would see another SOS boost, gaining another .2 or so in the BCS.

That boost will also help in the computer rankings, which will be the final component to come together in the final standings Dec. 7. Team B would need to gain an edge in computer rankings over Team A, which is not far fetched given the quality win and improving SOS.

However, as everyone is quick to point out, even then Team B would not have enough juice to pass Team A (especially if Team B”s conference-championship opponent is the team currently giving Team B a -.4 quality win bonus).

But - and here”s what nobody seems to be taking into consideration - after their games on Dec. 6, Team A will be 11-1 and will have just beaten a mediocre in-conference opponent to finish the season, and Team B will be 12-1 and will have just beaten a team ranked in the BCS top 10.

Why does that matter? One word: Humans.

Between now and Dec. 7, Team B could very well gain .56 points in SOS, a full point in computer rankings, but lose the .4 quality win point, meaning a net gain of 1.16 points. That”s still .99 less than Team A.

And that”s where the humans come in. Come the wee hours of Dec. 6, when Team B has just beaten a BCS top 10 team to win its conference championship and move to 12-1, 65 sportswriters (AP) and 63 coaches (ESPN) will have to decide if they really think Team A - at only 11-1 and with a season-ending win over its conference”s 5th-place team - is the country”s second-best team.

If 33 of the sportswriters or 32 of the coaches believe a 12-1 Team B is better than a 11-1 Team A, Team A will lose .5 in the human poll average, and Team B will gain .5. That”s 1.00 in BCS rankings if just one poll flips Team A and Team B, and that”s enough to move Team B up to BCS No. 2.

How likely is all this to happen? Hard to say. But if Team A and Team B were to both win out, it”s a certainty that Team B will have improved its SOS and computer ratings, and it would be up to the humans to declare a team with one fewer wins over lesser opponents to be more worthy of a national title shot.

Try as I might - I don”t want to get ahead of myself - I can”t stop poking around the mathematics of the BCS. The chances look less than good that LSU can pass USC without a USC loss Dec. 6, and I”m not good at math, but it”s an interesting exercise nonetheless.

So the wrapup is a little behind schedule. But here we go …

The Ole Miss game was just about the most uncomfortable 3 and 1/2 hours of my (and TCL”s) life. Jesus, guys, move the ball! After spotting the Rebs 7 (when I was a kid, we”d do that with the little kids we”d play in the backyard, too) and sputtering on offense, it was up to our NCAA-best defense to hold the game together. And they did that very, very well. Poor Eli won”t get a Heisman. Hey, at least he”s not Cooper.

I also made the very bad mistake of changing my gameday routine. With so much on the line, I decided to pull out the LSU cap, jersey, game-used helmet and car flag. Big mistake. Blame me for the first Ole Miss touchdown. I put everything away after that. Sorry.

So we took Ole Miss down and now have to put the Hogs away Friday to give me something to do the night of Dec. 6. Geaux Tigers.

Elsewhere, Auburn took care of business in the Iron Bowl, Georgia topped Kentucky, Arkansas ran over Miss. St, Clemson downed South Carolina and Tennessee destroyed Vanderbilt - all as predicted (ok, all favorites … but right is right).

So 6 - 0 for the week, 72 - 19 for the season and 10 - 1 on my Tigers.

Week 13? We play Ole Miss for the SEC West title in week 13? 13?!?!? Jesus, man, you might as well just break all the mirrors in the locker room before the game.

Actually, I guess the odds are 50/50 that the bad luck is for Ole Miss, not us. So I shall not get too worked up about it.

But this is it. The big showdown. The first LSU / Ole Miss game to mean something in about 45 years. The winner - barring letdowns next week - gets a trip to Atlanta for a shot at the SEC Championship and, in LSU”s case, continued hope for a national title.

Anyone who gives a damn knows the breakdown of this game - LSU has the country”s best defense, Ole Miss has the SEC”s best offense. Ole Miss has a decent run defense and a horrible (300 yards a game) pass defense. LSU is unforgiving against the run (60.8 yards a game) and also gives up less than 200 yards a game in the air.

Ole Miss is the sentimental favorite and should play with a lot of emotion. LSU is the budding powerhouse with everything to lose.

So what happens? LSU can”t count on the standard strategy of stop the other team early, score early and grind it out from there. Eli is too talented and the Rebs can score way too quickly for that. So the Tigers have to gear up the offense a bit, stay aggressive and exploit the many weaknesses in the Rebel defense.

Ole Miss needs a Heisman-winning game from Eli, a lot of LSU mistakes and the game of a lifetime from their defense to take this particular showdown.

I think the Tigers are too damn close to the prize to have a letdown now. Saban will have them ready for the game. Eli will have his moments, but it won”t be enough. LSU, 38 - 31

Elsewhere, Alabama visits Auburn for their annual battle. What”s on the line this year? Tuberville”s job and not much else. Auburn, 24 - 20

Kentucky at Georgia - Hmm. Cats lose to Vandy and now have to play Georgia and Tennessee to wrap up the season. Sorry to hear about that. Maybe J-Load has a 1% chance of coming out firing and taking down the Dawgs®. Georgia, 24 - 16

Mississippi State at Arkansas - Hasn”t Jackie Sherrill left yet? His Bulldogs come around to stink up yet another SEC city this weekend. Arkansas, 35 - 17

Clemson at South Carolina - The fabled Palmetto State rivalry. Who cares? Clemson, 21 - 17

Vanderbilt at Tennessee - The fancy folks from Nashville pull on their sequined gold caps and $200 jeans and head east. They”ve got a better chance of finding an indoor toilet in Knoxville than Vandy has of winning there tomorrow. Vols, 41 - 13

The anti-anti-animal people are taking heat for an ad they”ve produced that promotes dog neutering my making fun of Clay Aiken, the Martin Short impersonator who almost won American Idol or something (having never watched an episode, I”m not 100% on that, but I think maybe he lost out to a fat black guy).

In the ad, Triumph the Insult Comic Dog promotes canine castration with the line “Get Neutered??It Didn??t Hurt Clay Aiken.” Aiken drew the ire of PETA by telling a Rolling Stone writer he hates cats and thinks he ran over a kitten once.

OK, you piss off PETA, they make fun of you. Sounds fair enough.

But, no.

PETA can exploit the near-death experience of Roy Horn by saying captive tigers are going to turn on innocent people and there”s no outcry. They can feature campaigns such as “Tell the Girl Scouts to Stop Torturing and Killing Animals” with little if any public outcry. They can even go after Christians with a “I said “Thou shalt not kill” vegetarian billboard without getting Jerry Falwell in an uproar.

But speak ill of America”s (second?) best-loved under-talented, over-marketed pop star of the moment? You”ve gone too far, PETA! TOO DAMN FAR!!!

Apparently the group was flooded with complaints from the bean-poled geek”s fans protesting such a harsh and unfair attack on what is surely the most talented young performer to come along in nearly 6 weeks.

And PETA is now backpedaling on the Triumph / Clay Aiken campaign, putting a stop to the planned rollout of the campaign (PETA people are saying they”re waiting to see if Aiken apologizes for the RS remarks).

If only Clay Aiken were in the National Guard - we could end the war in Iraq tomorrow.

Listening to the Neal Boortz show during lunch the other day, I heard an ad for a local car dealer. The spokesman for this dealer is UGA football announcer Larry Munson, who”s an ancient, incoherent relic who should be put out to pasture*. But I digress ..

At the end of the ad, Larry throws in the tagline: “Home of the Trunk Monkey.”

This, of course, piqued my curiosity. Perhaps the Trunk Monkey is some kind of chimp on display at the dealership? There”s a truckstop on I-10 across the river from Baton Rouge that has tigers on display as a gimmick, so it”s not too much of a stretch to get to Trunk Monkey.

But I was at a loss. Is there was supposed to be some kind of obvious context - “Honey, does Atlanta have a Trunk Monkey anywhere?” - in this tagline? If so, I wasn”t getting it.

So I Googled “Trunk Monkey”. Turns out the Trunk Monkey is part of a syndicated car-dealership commercial in which a guy is seen using the “Trunk Monkey” feature of his car to ward off some road rager who”s harassing him.

To wit: The Trunk Monkey commercial. Man, that”s some funny stuff. A monkey in the trunk? Whoda thunk it?

Unfortunately, there are a trio of factors which prevent me from catching on to “hilarious” local commercials. 1) I have DishNetwork, so I get no local commercial except on local channels; 2) I rarely watch local channels; 3) I watch commercials even less frequently than local channels because of my DishPVR 721.

So my exposure to “clever” things like the Trunk Monkey is fairly limited.

But seeing the clip online, and especially seeing versions from markets around the country, sparked a flashback to the glory days of “hilarious” “local” commercials that were, in fact, running in markets across the country with the branding dropped in for each client.

Jim Varney, of course, got his start as Ernest in the “Hey, Vern” commercials back in the 1980s. In Baton Rouge, Ernest was big into banking. City National Bank, I believe.

After Ernest ran its course, there was some group of commercials that was basically an Ernest ripoff featuring a guy in old-lady drag who called people “Sister.” I don”t remember too much about those commercials, except that the guy in drag looked a lot like my friend Dave.

I remember the first time I was somewhere other than Baton Rouge and saw an Ernest commercial. I wanted to call City National and tell them somebody was ripping them off until I realized Ernest might not be from Baton Rouge after all (when I got back home, I stopped looking for him at K&B).

But back to the Trunk Monkey.

My research shows that I”m truly behind the curve on the T.M. The ad, which was created by an agency in Oregon, has not only won awards and been written up in local markets where the ad is running, but it”s even drawn the ire of PETA.

For those of you without broadband connections, I think PETA does a good job of summarizing the commercial:

R/West, an advertising agency in Portland, Oregon, has created a commercial called ??Trunk Monkey?? that portrays a chimpanzee stored in an automobile trunk and summoned out wielding a tire iron whenever the operator of the vehicle is harassed by another driver. The commercial is being sold to car dealerships all over the country.

Of course, if PETA hates it … I”m a fan. Go Trunk Monkey!